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Forums - Sales - How close will the big 3 be in 2011?

Immortal said:
nightsurge said:
Immortal said:


What leads you to believe that? Wiis were produced at $88 (I've posted this link somewhere before, I think - http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20090407124321_Nintendo_Wii_Costs_Roughly_88_to_Manufacture__Analysts.html#) back in mid 2009. Surely you'd think that Wii's even lower now and, considering 360 cost over 300 bucks to manufacture at launch, I doubt it's that low by now.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=119878

Your point being? Your analysis shows that a 360 costs $105-135 to make and Kinect costs $56 to make. The Wii, according to my source, cost $88 to make back in July 2009. Nintendo can go lower than MS - and that's not accounting for any manufacturing costs they cut in the past year and a half. They're probably right above Kinect costs by now. A $80 Kinect and a $150 360 (or even a $199 K360) couldn't combat a $99 (heck, prolly lower) Wii.

The Wii wouldn't have dropped by much. The cheaper an object gets, the slower the costs are able to be reduced.  That and the Wii has added new colors and WiiMotionPlus as well to add slightly to their production costs per unit since then.

My analysis showed that a K360 (as you so very nicely called it, I think I'll use this now!) could be as low as $179 (or lower if MS is really ballsy and goes for a $99 Arcade 360 which should break even).  Obviously a K360 would not be able to directly compete with a $99 Wii, but a $99-129 stand alone 360 could.  The Kinect is the new hot item while the Wii is losing some of it's luster with the casual crowd.  Nintendo is also not the type of company that does drastic price moves to sell hardware.  They could have made cuts at any point the last few years but didn't.  They focus a lot more on profitable hardware than Sony or MS.

Still, maybe I was a bit hastey in saying the 360 could cut MORE off than the Wii. It can cut more off than the PS3 and I still feel the 360 price cuts would see the most impact.



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Immortal said:
Chibi.V.29 said:


The PS3 cost $800 at launch per unit to manufacture :D just thought id throw that in there ^^ (Hell yh for sony biting the bullet for us! lololol)

They just did that so that they could popularize Bluray. Gaming was like a sacrificial lamb.

Just kidding, :P. I'm impressed by Sony though. They've cut down a lot since launch, even if it's easier to do it when the price is higher.

I half agree with yoru prediction fo ps3 falling behind 6^ i think it will start to sell slower but will ultimately out last the wii by around 3 or 4 years and 360 maybe 1 or 2 years



Yeah i know my spelling sucks but im dysgraphic so live with it :3    

---------------------------------------------------Bets--------------------------------------------------

Conegamer - I say that the PS3 will beat the DS next week in Japan  (for hardware sales) Forfeit is control over others avatar for 1 week.

nightsurge said:

The Wii wouldn't have dropped by much. The cheaper an object gets, the slower the costs are able to be reduced.  That and the Wii has added new colors and WiiMotionPlus as well to add slightly to their production costs per unit since then.

My analysis showed that a K360 (as you so very nicely called it, I think I'll use this now!) could be as low as $179 (or lower if MS is really ballsy and goes for a $99 Arcade 360 which should break even).  Obviously a K360 would not be able to directly compete with a $99 Wii, but a $99-129 stand alone 360 could.  The Kinect is the new hot item while the Wii is losing some of it's luster with the casual crowd.  Nintendo is also not the type of company that does drastic price moves to sell hardware.  They could have made cuts at any point the last few years but didn't.  They focus a lot more on profitable hardware than Sony or MS.

Still, maybe I was a bit hastey in saying the 360 could cut MORE off than the Wii. Still can cut more off than the PS3 and I still feel the 360 price cuts would see the most impact.

It's an awesome name, isn't it, :D?

Anyway, I was just making the point you admitted in the last part. I completely agree with you on Nintendo not having reduced manufacturing costs too much and not actually making massive price cuts even if they could.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

Machina said:

Cool graph. Following the discussion here has made me want to have a stab at predicting their 2011 sales - has anyone got a 2011 totals prediction thread going?


yes cone gamer has one :D



Yeah i know my spelling sucks but im dysgraphic so live with it :3    

---------------------------------------------------Bets--------------------------------------------------

Conegamer - I say that the PS3 will beat the DS next week in Japan  (for hardware sales) Forfeit is control over others avatar for 1 week.

Machina said:

Cool graph. Following the discussion here has made me want to have a stab at predicting their 2011 sales - has anyone got a 2011 totals prediction thread going?


You already put out your opinion in my Wii one.



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I think both 360 and PS3 will have price cuts (as well as Kinect and Move price cuts) but the 360 price cuts will have a bigger impact since they will get their consoles into the impulse buy territory.

With continued huge momentum from Kinect, I think 2011 will be the peak year for 360 sales. I think MS will sell about 1 to 2 million more 360s than Sony sells PS3s in 2011. I expect PS3s to be up on the year as well but only slightly. Wii sales will continue to decline as consumers move onto HD game consoles.

Predicted 2011 worldwide sales:

360: 16.5M

Wii: 16M

PS3: 15M



Really, really close.  PS3 and 360 will be up I think, PS3 still trending that way worldwide and potential price cut, 360 trending up now thanks to Kinect/new model and Wii probably trending down.

Close!



Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...

Suppose I may aswell make a prediction.

All 3 consoles will be in the range of 15-17 Million units WW for the Year. In what order? I don't know.



                            

2011 could be the year Wii tops 100M and when it does everyone should congratulate it as it will be the first non playstation console to hit 100M!.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

well i see the collision, but the onlyone i see being down is the Wii. i think the big3  will sell closely inline with somebody barely edging out at the end. its the 8th gen coming early. everybody even, until the holiday season where someone will brake away!