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Forums - Sales Discussion - Microsoft: Every Kinect we make we sell

drkohler on 06 January 2011
maxer said:

LOL, you are not even accounting for the fact that in Zwitserland the userbase of the XBOX360 is unequally distributed vs. the rest of Europe (low, that is).

Not that good of an estimation imo.

Don't play dumb. My scale factor of 400 was conservative enough and way lower than the population factor.

Here is something to ponder for you:

A few weeks ago, Taiwanese based Newmax Technology announced ramped up capacity to manufacture 14 mio Kinect lense units (2 units per Kinect) for fy 2010 (find the umpteen threads here about it yourself).

So by Dec 31, MS would have been able to manufacture 7mio kinect units (assuming zero manufacturing defects). So where do Greenburgs "over 8 mio Kinects sold" come from ?

 

 

 

 

Ok, I'll do the work for you.

Shortly before Xmas, Taiwan-based Largan Precision Co., Ltd. was added as a contractor for additional lense units. Now let us assume they can start manufacturing within seconds of signing the contracts, the products still would have to be shipped to Kinect assemby lines and the Kinectss shipped to shops, all this within 1-2 weeks. Doable, but at what additional cost? My guess is the "8mio sold" quote includes Kinects still in the assemby plant (but allocated to shops).



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leatherhat on 06 January 2011
Squilliam said:

By the time ya'll stop arguing, 'sold to' would have become 'sold through' already.


Do you actually think they're going to stop arguing 



ǝןdɯıs ʇı dǝǝʞ oʇ ǝʞıן ı ʍouʞ noʎ 

Ask me about being an elitist jerk

Time for hype

Squilliam on 06 January 2011
leatherhat said:
Squilliam said:

By the time ya'll stop arguing, 'sold to' would have become 'sold through' already.


Do you actually think they're going to stop arguing 

They don't have to stop arguing for what I said to come true however.

But no probably not. Im sure when it is 10M sold through there'll be even more arguments, 20M the arguments even more epic until finally either everyone has Kinect or is entirely sick of talking about it -> Wii today.



Tease.

TRios_Zen on 06 January 2011
ArnoldRimmer said:

If Microsoft is saying that sell-thru sales have have surpassed 5 millions than the number is most probably somewhere between 5 and 6 million, which sounds reasonable.

@BenVTrigger: Your impression that there are not one million Kinects sitting on store shelves is because you're probably from the USA, where Kinect is indeed selling very very well. But don't forget that there are 192 other countries in the world where Kinect is not such a big success. Just yesterday for example I was in my country's biggest electronics store chain. Already in front of the store there was a huge Kinect advertisement, about 6x4 meters large. And in the games section, the store had prepared a huge area where people could try out Kinect and there was even some Kinect marketing guy asking customers walking by to give it a try. They even had a big TV-advertised sale where they offered the Kinect bundle for just 122 Euros instead of the official 149 Euros. But it just didn't help: Within the whole 45 minutes that I spent in the games section, there wasn't a single person taking one of the Kinect bundles that were piling up meters high. In the same time however, at least two people bought PS Move PS3 bundles and just like the last three times I was there, the shop didn't have even a single PS Move starter pack or standalone Move controller.

Don't get me wrong, my message is not "Look how bad Kinect and how great PS Move sells"! I only want to demonstrate that anecdotical evidence/personal experience can easily give you a wrong impression when it comes to worldwide sales. While Kinect probably really has a 90% sell-thru rate in the USA, the situation is quite different in other countries.

I know I'm late in commenting here, but I couldn't help myself...You  spend your entire post dissing anecdotal evidence, and then USE anecdotal evidence, to prove somebody else's as "wrong"?

Really??  I'm not even making any claim on sales numbers here, but can't you see the blatant hypocrisy in your post?



Darth Tigris on 06 January 2011



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daroamer on 07 January 2011
drkohler said:
BenVTrigger said:
Carl2291 said:

1 Million on shelves is probably a very likely number for something that just previously sold over 900k units in a single week.


Your right but thats Kinects selling as soon as they reach retailer which is the case.  Thus 7 million sold soon to be 8 once those Kinects reach retailers and sell within the week or so.  Not 1  million just sitting on shelves.  My point is its very close the sell through number just as Greenburg stated.

Yeah sure.....Greenburg, the fountain of truth.... and once again USA = the Wold....

Look, simple observation in the EUROPEAN town I live:

Mediamarkt 1: approx 40-50 Kinect bundles in shop, approx 20-30 Kinects in shop throughout Xmas

Mediamarkt 2: ditto

Saturn: ditto

(these shops account for approx. 55% of the market)

Interdiscount (approx 30% of the market): approx 15-20 bundles, 10 Kinects

there are/were _at least_ around 250 Kinects in the town at all times.

Upscaling to Switzerland gives about a stock of 2000-2500 Kinects in stores at all times

Upscaling to Europe gives about 600'000-1'000'000 Kinects in stores at all times.

(and if you ask about move bundles and single move units, shops here get a box of around 10-20 "things" every week, they last about two days before they are gone).

Accounting for units currently in transit, there are very likely 1 mio Kinect units not yet sold for Europe alone at all times.


Remember folks, USA does not equal the WORLD!

(But Switzerland does equal all of Europe)



Stadelhuber on 07 January 2011

I can't see a real problem.

MS said, they shipped over 8 million units, vgchartz says, they sold 7.15 million to customers. So there are round about 1 million standalones and bundles left. Why ist there so much arguing?