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Forums - Sales - Conegamer's Official 2011 predict-a-thon. ENTRIES NOW OPEN!!!

TIME IS RUNNING OUT! YOU ONLY HAVE 4 DAYS TO POST PREDICITIONS!!!

And next month's games will be up soon as well



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Seriously, any adjustments, edits, changes or simply newcomers only have until Tuesday to post their predictions!

OT: This week's sales are:

Black Ops (PS3)-98,345

Dead Space 2 (360)-89,657

GT5- 48,931

Marvel Vs. Capcom 3 (360) - 195,209

 

Will post who I reckon will win this month, as well as next month's games in a bit



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Glad I decided to wait to predict. I thought 3DS might win this year but after doing some research it doesn't look like such a certainty anymore.

PS3 - 15.5 million

Wii - 15.25 million

360 - 13 million

3DS - 12 million

PSP - 11 million

DS - 10.75 mill

People are serriously underestimating the decline that the DS will see this year. It's already down almost 40% and that decline will accelerate even more once 3DS comes out and again when it passes the price cut in the summer. Admitedely the price cut didn't have a huge impact last year but it's still not going to be doing the YOY comparissons any favors. I'm assuming a $50 cut for all 3 home consoles. I don't see a price cut being enough to keep 360 flat YOY. I can't see it having even close to the same impact as the slim and Kinect last year. I assumed it might have a chance of being flat YOY earlier but that was under the assumption that it would build up a massive YOY lead prior to passing the slim launch in the summer. Like a 1 million YOY lead or more. The way things are trending now it probably won't even gain 400k by June. PS3 seems to be keeping its YOY declines to a relative minimum and since last years sales were simply consistently good with no particular high point other than the arguable move launch, and with its holiday in Japan pretty much being abyssmal, I think a $50 cut and a good holiday lineup (FFXIII-2, Ninokuni) would be enough to counter any declines and give PS3 its best year yet. PSP should be able to end the year up with price cuts. Here's my wild card predictions.

1. Catherine will release in North America and will have a larger opening on PS3 than Demon's Souls.

2. In terms of shipments PS2 will retain its title of best selling video game system of all time through the end of 2011.

3. Batman: Arkham City will have a better metacritic than Arkham Asylum.

4. Donkey Kong Country Returns will get a special edition bundle.

5. 3DS will have at least one non-bundled 3 million seller by the end of the year.

6. NGP will have at least 1 million seller by the end of the year.

7. The next Devil May Cry will have content exclusive to the PS3.

8. Bungie will announce their new IP.

9. Just Dance 3 will be announced.

10. A Monster Hunter game will be announced for the PS3.



Proudest Platinums:
1. Gran Turismo 5
2. Persona 4 Arena
3. Wipeout HD
4. Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
5. Super Street Fighter 4

postofficebuddy said:

Glad I decided to wait to predict. I thought 3DS might win this year but after doing some research it doesn't look like such a certainty anymore.

PS3 - 15.5 million

Wii - 15.25 million

360 - 13 million

3DS - 12 million

PSP - 11 million

DS - 10.75 mill

People are serriously underestimating the decline that the DS will see this year. It's already down almost 40% and that decline will accelerate even more once 3DS comes out and again when it passes the price cut in the summer. Admitedely the price cut didn't have a huge impact last year but it's still not going to be doing the YOY comparissons any favors. I'm assuming a $50 cut for all 3 home consoles. I don't see a price cut being enough to keep 360 flat YOY. I can't see it having even close to the same impact as the slim and Kinect last year. I assumed it might have a chance of being flat YOY earlier but that was under the assumption that it would build up a massive YOY lead prior to passing the slim launch in the summer. Like a 1 million YOY lead or more. The way things are trending now it probably won't even gain 400k by June. PS3 seems to be keeping its YOY declines to a relative minimum and since last years sales were simply consistently good with no particular high point other than the arguable move launch, and with its holiday in Japan pretty much being abyssmal, I think a $50 cut and a good holiday lineup (FFXIII-2, Ninokuni) would be enough to counter any declines and give PS3 its best year yet. PSP should be able to end the year up with price cuts. Here's my wild card predictions.

1. Catherine will release in North America and will have a larger opening on PS3 than Demon's Souls.

2. In terms of shipments PS2 will retain its title of best selling video game system of all time through the end of 2011.

3. Batman: Arkham City will have a better metacritic than Arkham Asylum.

4. Donkey Kong Country Returns will get a special edition bundle.

5. 3DS will have at least one non-bundled 3 million seller by the end of the year.

6. NGP will have at least 1 million seller by the end of the year.

7. The next Devil May Cry will have content exclusive to the PS3.

8. Bungie will announce their new IP.

9. Just Dance 3 will be announced.

10. A Monster Hunter game will be announced for the PS3.

Well you certainly left it late

ONLY 24 HOURS LEFT NOW!

I enjoyed reading your summary as well, I may put it in the OP if you don't mind...

I like your super-predictions, so I'll give you this one for free: Atlus confirmed that there are no plans to release Catherine outside of Japan, so if you want to change it...

Updating OP now!



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

OP is now updated with your predictions, my predictions, analysis...

After today I shall finalise everything and tidy it all up and lock the OP for new entries...



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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A couple more of my predictions:

By the end of the year a new MH game will be announced

Paper Mario 3D will have a higher metascore than Paper Mario TTYD

Retro will announce their new game

TLS will have released in either Europe or the US

The Last Guardian will have launched in at least one territory




MrT-Tar said:

A couple more of my predictions:

By the end of the year a new MH game will be announced

Paper Mario 3D will have a higher metascore than Paper Mario TTYD

Retro will announce their new game

TLS will have released in either Europe or the US

The Last Guardian will have launched in at least one territory

I SOOOO wish for that to be true...

All of those seem pretty possible anyway (damn. Competition )



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

I was planning to do so well on this. Now I'm just rushing it all, :O.

Wii - 14m

PS3 - 13m

360 - 13m

DS - 12m

3DS - 20m

PSP - 7.5m

Super Predictor -

Let's see... Before I start, are we allowed to make really obvious ones?

Example:

1) A new FIFA game will be released

2) A new CoD game will be released

3) A new JD game will be released

4) 3DS will be released

etc.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

I would like to change my hardware predictions a bit.

 

Before: Wii: 16,4millions --> New prediction: 15,4 millions

Before: Xbox360: 14,6 millions --> New prediction: 13,7 millions

Before: PS3: 14,2 millions --> New Prediction: 14,1 millions

Before: DS: 9,3 millions --> New Prediction:10,3 millions

Before: PSP: 3,9 millions --> New Prediction: 5,8 millions

Before: 3DS: 8,7 millions. --> New Prediction: 9,8 millions



Above: still the best game of the year.

Immortal said:

I was planning to do so well on this. Now I'm just rushing it all, :O.

Wii - 14m

PS3 - 13m

360 - 13m

DS - 12m

3DS - 20m

PSP - 7.5m

Super Predictor -

Let's see... Before I start, are we allowed to make really obvious ones?

Example:

1) A new FIFA game will be released

2) A new CoD game will be released

3) A new JD game will be released

4) 3DS will be released

etc.

Unless the world ends 8 months earlier than the prediction, the 3DS WILL release in March, and there is no way EA and Activision won't milk their franchises a bit more. So, no, you can't, because those aren't predictions, they are facts.



Above: still the best game of the year.