By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo - Skyward Sword vs. Twilight Princess (copies sold)

Sharu on 30 December 2010
mortono said:
t3mporary_126 said:
mortono said:

Nintendo seems to be reworking the formula of Zelda on this game, so it could go either way.

Zelda is interesting because it feels like there's two segments of the audience. There's the modern Zelda fan who started on OOT and progressed through it's sequels, then there's the classic Zelda fan that played the original 2d games and stopped after OOT.

I think Skyward Sword has a chance because it's trying to bring in both segments. What I've heard about there being more density in the overworld, more focus on gameplay over story, and even the motion control aspect makes me think they are trying to appeal to classic Zelda fans.

I think if they are successful in doing this, it could sell maybe 9, hell even 10 million.

However if they just piss off both classic and modern Zelda fans it could be really bad.

I'm pretty sure some started off with the 2d games and continued after Ocarina of Time.  And I see the motion controls bringing in newer Zelda audiences just like the Phantom Hourglass and Spirit Tracks tried to appeal to new Zelda audiences. If they wanted to make the game appeal to the ones that enjoyed the 2d Zeldas and stopped at Ocarina of Time, they might have made another 2d Zelda game Diablo style (that would be sweet) than a 3D one like Ocarina of Time.

Man they should make a spinoff 4Swords adventure style using a Diablo 2D perspective with online co-op.

But yes, a new 2d zelda would be great. It's funny how Diablo has more in common with classic Zelda than modern Zelda does.

When I start thinking about it - yeah! Diablo like Zelda spinoff with local multiplayer for 4 people and some online stuff could easily be 5-6 million seller!!! I WANT THIS GAME!!! :)



Around the Network
Pineapple on 30 December 2010
mortono said:
Pineapple said:

I personally think that Skyward Sword will sell less than the Wii version of Twilight Princess.

The Wii's competition gets fiercer and fiercer every year. In 2010, you have to compete with all the new 2010 titles, but you also have to compete with evergreen 2008 and 2009 titles. Essentially, the amount of games that people could potentially buy increases.

And, with the Wii, the amount of software isn't increasing. It's stuck at selling around the same as in 2008 and in 2009, and it's quite clearly going to sell roughly the same in 2011 and 2012.

More titles that buyers could potentially buy, coupled with no increase in software sold, means that the average title will sell less. Essentially, all titles will sell a bit less on Wii now than the earlier released ones.

We see this pattern being true for all installments of Zelda on machines. The second one on the machine always sells less.

So, I'd say somewhere in the 4-5 million range seems likely.

Backwards, isn't it?

Lower overall software sales results in lower selling games.

Or...

Lower selling games results in lower overall software sales.

You decide.

But I do think you are right about the competition aspect of it. Zelda TP was THE game to buy as a launch title, but now with all the good software on display it will really have to stand out.


No, you're missing the point. The buying habits of consumers are that they buy 4 games the first year, 3 the next, then 2, then 1. They gradually buy less and less games.

An average person who has owned his Wii for 4 years won't buy as many games as a person who has owned it for half a year. This is why machines tend to see similar software sales in years 3, 4 and 5. Or in the Wii's scenario, year 2, 3, 4 and most likely 5 and 6.

Here's a very, very simple layout of it. I've simplified the numbers (the Wii sells a bit less than 200 million software a year), and I'm just ignoring 2006 and 2007 for now.

In 2008, the Wii sells 200 million software. All of those sales are from games released in 2008.

In 2009, the Wii sells 200 million software. Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit sell 20 million combined, and other 2008 titles account for 10 million more. Thus, there's only 170 million left for games released in 2009.

In 2010, the Wii sells 200 million software. Wii Sports Resorts, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Fit Plus account for 30 million sales, Mario Kart Wii and Just Dance for another 10, and other titles for another 10. That leaves just 150 million left for titles released in 2010.

And this is going to become even more true in 2011.

So no, it's not backwards.  It's not either of the two scenarios you wrote up. It's a third.

- More competition on the machine, coupled with no increase in software sales, results in less sales per game.



Lucas-Rio on 30 December 2010
Pineapple said:
mortono said:
Pineapple said:

I personally think that Skyward Sword will sell less than the Wii version of Twilight Princess.

The Wii's competition gets fiercer and fiercer every year. In 2010, you have to compete with all the new 2010 titles, but you also have to compete with evergreen 2008 and 2009 titles. Essentially, the amount of games that people could potentially buy increases.

And, with the Wii, the amount of software isn't increasing. It's stuck at selling around the same as in 2008 and in 2009, and it's quite clearly going to sell roughly the same in 2011 and 2012.

More titles that buyers could potentially buy, coupled with no increase in software sold, means that the average title will sell less. Essentially, all titles will sell a bit less on Wii now than the earlier released ones.

We see this pattern being true for all installments of Zelda on machines. The second one on the machine always sells less.

So, I'd say somewhere in the 4-5 million range seems likely.

Backwards, isn't it?

Lower overall software sales results in lower selling games.

Or...

Lower selling games results in lower overall software sales.

You decide.

But I do think you are right about the competition aspect of it. Zelda TP was THE game to buy as a launch title, but now with all the good software on display it will really have to stand out.


No, you're missing the point. The buying habits of consumers are that they buy 4 games the first year, 3 the next, then 2, then 1. They gradually buy less and less games.

An average person who has owned his Wii for 4 years won't buy as many games as a person who has owned it for half a year. This is why machines tend to see similar software sales in years 3, 4 and 5. Or in the Wii's scenario, year 2, 3, 4 and most likely 5 and 6.

Here's a very, very simple layout of it. I've simplified the numbers (the Wii sells a bit less than 200 million software a year), and I'm just ignoring 2006 and 2007 for now.

In 2008, the Wii sells 200 million software. All of those sales are from games released in 2008.

In 2009, the Wii sells 200 million software. Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit sell 20 million combined, and other 2008 titles account for 10 million more. Thus, there's only 170 million left for games released in 2009.

In 2010, the Wii sells 200 million software. Wii Sports Resorts, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Fit Plus account for 30 million sales, Mario Kart Wii and Just Dance for another 10, and other titles for another 10. That leaves just 150 million left for titles released in 2010.

And this is going to become even more true in 2011.

So no, it's not backwards.  It's not either of the two scenarios you wrote up. It's a third.

- More competition on the machine, coupled with no increase in software sales, results in less sales per game.


I disagree. I can't see Zelda SS selling less than 5 millions, which would put him right behind the Wii version of TP. It will probably sell more as this is the real Zelda Wii.



wiilicious on 30 December 2010

I don't think we gone get skyward sword in 2011 if its only half-done. As I know Nintendo they really want to polish Zelda games. So we gone get it maybe in 2012 as a launch title for Wii_2 (HD) and also been release on orginal wii. So it will probably End with the same sales figured then TWP. Or I just eat to much fruit loops this morning, This is me on sugar...



 

Raze on 30 December 2010

I think 7 mil is a fair estimate for Skyward Sword. It's  Zelda, the most coveted IP Nintendo has by the gamer crowd. People who held out on getting a Wii will buy one just for Skyward Sword. Zelda games are always massive, I expect this to be no different.



The Carnival of Shadows - Folk Punk from Asbury Park, New Jersey

http://www.thecarnivalofshadows.com 


Around the Network
dark_gh0st_b0y on 30 December 2010

i don't know if it's even possible making a Zelda game that's better than Twilight Princess, and i want to hope Nintendo can surpass theirselves



don't mind my username, that was more than 10 years ago, I'm a different person now, amazing how people change ^_^

mortono on 30 December 2010
Pineapple said:
mortono said:
Pineapple said:

I personally think that Skyward Sword will sell less than the Wii version of Twilight Princess.

The Wii's competition gets fiercer and fiercer every year. In 2010, you have to compete with all the new 2010 titles, but you also have to compete with evergreen 2008 and 2009 titles. Essentially, the amount of games that people could potentially buy increases.

And, with the Wii, the amount of software isn't increasing. It's stuck at selling around the same as in 2008 and in 2009, and it's quite clearly going to sell roughly the same in 2011 and 2012.

More titles that buyers could potentially buy, coupled with no increase in software sold, means that the average title will sell less. Essentially, all titles will sell a bit less on Wii now than the earlier released ones.

We see this pattern being true for all installments of Zelda on machines. The second one on the machine always sells less.

So, I'd say somewhere in the 4-5 million range seems likely.

Backwards, isn't it?

Lower overall software sales results in lower selling games.

Or...

Lower selling games results in lower overall software sales.

You decide.

But I do think you are right about the competition aspect of it. Zelda TP was THE game to buy as a launch title, but now with all the good software on display it will really have to stand out.


No, you're missing the point. The buying habits of consumers are that they buy 4 games the first year, 3 the next, then 2, then 1. They gradually buy less and less games.

An average person who has owned his Wii for 4 years won't buy as many games as a person who has owned it for half a year. This is why machines tend to see similar software sales in years 3, 4 and 5. Or in the Wii's scenario, year 2, 3, 4 and most likely 5 and 6.

Here's a very, very simple layout of it. I've simplified the numbers (the Wii sells a bit less than 200 million software a year), and I'm just ignoring 2006 and 2007 for now.

In 2008, the Wii sells 200 million software. All of those sales are from games released in 2008.

In 2009, the Wii sells 200 million software. Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit sell 20 million combined, and other 2008 titles account for 10 million more. Thus, there's only 170 million left for games released in 2009.

In 2010, the Wii sells 200 million software. Wii Sports Resorts, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Fit Plus account for 30 million sales, Mario Kart Wii and Just Dance for another 10, and other titles for another 10. That leaves just 150 million left for titles released in 2010.

And this is going to become even more true in 2011.

So no, it's not backwards.  It's not either of the two scenarios you wrote up. It's a third.

- More competition on the machine, coupled with no increase in software sales, results in less sales per game.

Okay so please link for me why all that is going to cause Zelda to sell less.

I can see a Zelda fan who really wants this game. Goes to the store to buy it, picks it up, but then realizes, "crap, I already bought my 1 Wii game for the year, I guess I'll have to skip it."

Silly, isn't it? People who want Zelda are going to buy Zelda. Overall sales trends don't tell us anything about the sales potential of an individual game. 



Pineapple on 30 December 2010
mortono said:
Pineapple said:
mortono said:
Pineapple said:

I personally think that Skyward Sword will sell less than the Wii version of Twilight Princess.

The Wii's competition gets fiercer and fiercer every year. In 2010, you have to compete with all the new 2010 titles, but you also have to compete with evergreen 2008 and 2009 titles. Essentially, the amount of games that people could potentially buy increases.

And, with the Wii, the amount of software isn't increasing. It's stuck at selling around the same as in 2008 and in 2009, and it's quite clearly going to sell roughly the same in 2011 and 2012.

More titles that buyers could potentially buy, coupled with no increase in software sold, means that the average title will sell less. Essentially, all titles will sell a bit less on Wii now than the earlier released ones.

We see this pattern being true for all installments of Zelda on machines. The second one on the machine always sells less.

So, I'd say somewhere in the 4-5 million range seems likely.

Backwards, isn't it?

Lower overall software sales results in lower selling games.

Or...

Lower selling games results in lower overall software sales.

You decide.

But I do think you are right about the competition aspect of it. Zelda TP was THE game to buy as a launch title, but now with all the good software on display it will really have to stand out.


No, you're missing the point. The buying habits of consumers are that they buy 4 games the first year, 3 the next, then 2, then 1. They gradually buy less and less games.

An average person who has owned his Wii for 4 years won't buy as many games as a person who has owned it for half a year. This is why machines tend to see similar software sales in years 3, 4 and 5. Or in the Wii's scenario, year 2, 3, 4 and most likely 5 and 6.

Here's a very, very simple layout of it. I've simplified the numbers (the Wii sells a bit less than 200 million software a year), and I'm just ignoring 2006 and 2007 for now.

In 2008, the Wii sells 200 million software. All of those sales are from games released in 2008.

In 2009, the Wii sells 200 million software. Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit sell 20 million combined, and other 2008 titles account for 10 million more. Thus, there's only 170 million left for games released in 2009.

In 2010, the Wii sells 200 million software. Wii Sports Resorts, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Fit Plus account for 30 million sales, Mario Kart Wii and Just Dance for another 10, and other titles for another 10. That leaves just 150 million left for titles released in 2010.

And this is going to become even more true in 2011.

So no, it's not backwards.  It's not either of the two scenarios you wrote up. It's a third.

- More competition on the machine, coupled with no increase in software sales, results in less sales per game.

Okay so please link for me why all that is going to cause Zelda to sell less.

I can see a Zelda fan who really wants this game. Goes to the store to buy it, picks it up, but then realizes, "crap, I already bought my 1 Wii game for the year, I guess I'll have to skip it."

Silly, isn't it? People who want Zelda are going to buy Zelda. Overall sales trends don't tell us anything about the sales potential of an individual game.

Firstly, your scenario is quite flawed. A person who goes to the store to buy Zelda will obviously buy Zelda. In order for someone to go to the store to buy Zelda, though, they have to have already made the decision to buy a Zelda game.

Now, what makes a person want to buy a Zelda game? Firstly, he has to be interested in buying a game. Secondly, he has to choose to buy Zelda instead of all the other available games.

The amount of people interested in buying a game isn't increasing (see how there is no increase in software sales), but the amount of games that the person could potentially buy is increasing. Linking what I said to Zelda really isn't rocket science.

Saying that overall sales trends don't tell us anything about the sales potential of an individual game is foolish, to say the least. Sure, it doesn't give us an accurate number, but it tells you roughly how much it's going to sell. It gives a far better view of the situation than anything else we can do. Using overall sales trends is the most accurate thing we can do to estimate it at this point, even though it's quite inaccurate.



SaviorX on 30 December 2010

For Skyward Sword, I'd assumed the breakdown would look like this:

720k = 12% (JP) 2.34m = 39% (EMEAA) 2.94m= 51% (Amer.)

out of a standard 6 million. In terms of how I think it will actually sell?...

Region Americas Japan EMEAA
Sales (Lifetime) ~3,350,000 (52%) ~760,000 (12%)

~2,320,000 (36%)

Total: 6.44 million.

I'm skeptical of EMEAA. TP just barely passed 2 million over there this week! Also, Smash Brawl just passed 2.4m; really close to my projected 2.32m. Thing about that though, is that SSBB released fairly late in EMEAA in comparison to the rest of the world. 

Seeing how recent Nintendo games have performed (with the exception of Other M [bleh]) I would not underestimate though. SS could be the change the series needs to really expand the Zelda fanbase, or Nintendo could promote it really well.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

Roma on 30 December 2010
Pineapple said:
mortono said:
Pineapple said:

I personally think that Skyward Sword will sell less than the Wii version of Twilight Princess.

The Wii's competition gets fiercer and fiercer every year. In 2010, you have to compete with all the new 2010 titles, but you also have to compete with evergreen 2008 and 2009 titles. Essentially, the amount of games that people could potentially buy increases.

And, with the Wii, the amount of software isn't increasing. It's stuck at selling around the same as in 2008 and in 2009, and it's quite clearly going to sell roughly the same in 2011 and 2012.

More titles that buyers could potentially buy, coupled with no increase in software sold, means that the average title will sell less. Essentially, all titles will sell a bit less on Wii now than the earlier released ones.

We see this pattern being true for all installments of Zelda on machines. The second one on the machine always sells less.

So, I'd say somewhere in the 4-5 million range seems likely.

Backwards, isn't it?

Lower overall software sales results in lower selling games.

Or...

Lower selling games results in lower overall software sales.

You decide.

But I do think you are right about the competition aspect of it. Zelda TP was THE game to buy as a launch title, but now with all the good software on display it will really have to stand out.


No, you're missing the point. The buying habits of consumers are that they buy 4 games the first year, 3 the next, then 2, then 1. They gradually buy less and less games.

An average person who has owned his Wii for 4 years won't buy as many games as a person who has owned it for half a year. This is why machines tend to see similar software sales in years 3, 4 and 5. Or in the Wii's scenario, year 2, 3, 4 and most likely 5 and 6.

Here's a very, very simple layout of it. I've simplified the numbers (the Wii sells a bit less than 200 million software a year), and I'm just ignoring 2006 and 2007 for now.

In 2008, the Wii sells 200 million software. All of those sales are from games released in 2008.

In 2009, the Wii sells 200 million software. Mario Kart Wii and Wii Fit sell 20 million combined, and other 2008 titles account for 10 million more. Thus, there's only 170 million left for games released in 2009.

In 2010, the Wii sells 200 million software. Wii Sports Resorts, New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Fit Plus account for 30 million sales, Mario Kart Wii and Just Dance for another 10, and other titles for another 10. That leaves just 150 million left for titles released in 2010.

And this is going to become even more true in 2011.

So no, it's not backwards.  It's not either of the two scenarios you wrote up. It's a third.

- More competition on the machine, coupled with no increase in software sales, results in less sales per game.

dude we are talking about Zelda not some random game a person buys because there are no other games to buy!

I wait long for Nintendo games too come out and even if I have bought some other game I will buy the next Mario, Metroid, Zelda, Pikmin or whatever big Nintendo game there is out there. The fans will buy them and they are at least 5 million Zelda fans out there that will buy it even if it does not look the way most of us hoped for.

I had doubts about WW and it is one hell of a game though it was short. I have my doubts about this game but I will buy it as there has not been a Zelda game that I bought that has been bad so this will be good.

What you are talking about are the new IP’s or small games that have it hard when there are so many games out there but not for big franchises that are well known and have a huge fan base  



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(