I just read an interesting bit of info that Forbes published an article way back in 2000 that speculated about the future of the PC ten years later.
Well that time has come, and when comparing notes, that post did get a lot of things right. The article successfully predicts liquid crystal displays, terabyte hard drives, virtual keyboards, and wireless capability, though it was a bit off the mark with statements about batteries that could last a “couple of weeks.” My two year old VAIO is currently struggling to stay alive for ten minutes without power.
So in this spirit, I thought I’d try to write something similar about video games, which is currently my little corner of Forbes.com. It’s hard to predict some of the developments in the industry in the last 10 years (Microsoft making a console? Get out!), others not so much (Nintendo’s Mario titles still selling strong, shocking). But here goes, and I’ll see you in ten years when you can congratulate me on being so right.
- 3D will finally be able to lose the glasses for home console play, and the result will be a far more immersive gameplay experience.
- I would love to go so far as to say that technology like touchable holograms would be implemented into TVs by that point, but I’m not crazy. Maybe another ten years after that.
- As for the brands? I think Sony and/or Xbox might face declines over the next decade, opening the door for another console manufacturer to get in on the action. My guess would be Apple, who has been quite successful with mobile gaming, so they might try some sort of home console system of their own. As for its success? Not sure how a controller with one button would compete. Ha.
- Google might try to get in on the action as well, as video games are a big piece of media they’re not yet actively involved with. Expect a war with Apple’s hypothetical system if they do chose to test the market, or they might just decide to become a publisher instead.
-Franchises like Mario, Zelda, Halo, Grand Theft Auto and Call of Duty will still be running strong in ten years. Hopefully titles like Mass Effect and Assassin’s Creed cement their franchises as well and continue producing titles. But obviously we’ll see new titles we can’t predict that will blossom into huge sellers.
- Physical media will completely phase out by 2020. All games will be sold through digital downloads straight to the console, and stores like Gamestop will close for good, with Best Buy taking huge hits as no one will buy DVDs or physical games anymore. In order to prevent total loss, everyone will have an account that has their purchased titles stored, so if a hard drive gets wrecked, you won’t lose everything. And storage won’t be a problem either, as these console hard drives will rocket into the terabyte range once downloading becomes the norm.
- This could change game rental as well, as with Blockbuster dead, streaming service like Netflix could offer games for a few days, that self destruct after X number of hours of possession or play. It could be a good way to sample a title that doesn’t require asking for it by mail. Such a concept will seem antiquated, as the mail in general will continue to get less and less relevant.
- Because of the digital download, piracy of console games will increase dramatically as well, and companies will have to think of new, and likely more draconian measures to prevent such practices.
- By 2020, We’ll be approaching the console generation two steps forward from where we are now. Meaning that in two or three years, we’ll see the next systems from Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft, but then five to seven years after that, it’ll be time for another leap forward, and we ‘ll see who’s still standing then. In-game graphics will approach photorealism to a degree we see now in movies like Avatar, and it will be hard to distinguish them from reality.
- Video game addiction will increase dramatically as the medium continues to expand, and games become more immersive. With its complex interface and blocky graphics, World of Warcraft has claimed many lives, both literally and psychologically. When MMOs (also available on consoles now) get even more realistic with bigger universes and better graphics, many more players will trade their ordinary lives for virtual ones, and it will be a major epidemic in society with “video game rehab” becoming more and more widespread.
- Motion controls will continue to evolve past their rudimentary functions we see today. There will likely be some hybrid between a system like Kinect, which uses body tracking and voice commands, and an actual controller. I cannot see a system playing all types of titles using only motional controls until something as advanced as literal virtual reality is invented.
- Video games in general will be increasingly taken seriously and there will be less of a stigma attached to be a “gamer” than ever before. Gaming will eventually eclipse the movie industry in sales, as titles sell for 6x that of movie tickets, and it will become ingrained into the culture of nearly all age groups, from old to young, as a generations raised on games grow up.
- The console will turn into a centralized media hub, and will be integrated with web browsing and television and movie watching more than ever. It could be your modem and cable box all in one, and could actually act like a more or less full computer system hooked up to your TV, as you sit on your couch with a wireless keyboard, using a Kinect-like system to gesture in place of a mouse.
Alright, I think that’s enough predictions for at least a few of them to turn out right. Or I’m an idiot and SEGA will make a huge comeback. Let me know any further predictions you might have in the comments.
