[As part of our monthly in-depth NPD sales analysis, Gamasutra analyst Matt Matthews examines Xbox 360's strong performance at U.S. retail in November, a surge that could lead the console to a record 1.7 million sales in the territory this December."]

On 4 November 2010, Microsoft launched Kinect, its camera-based controller-less system for the Xbox 360. Consumers could obtain Kinect either as a standalone package for $150 or bundled with a 4GB or 250GB console ($300 and $400, respectively).

Along with the redesigned Xbox 360 S Model (introduced in June) and a reported $500 million promotion budget, the launch of Kinect has been likened to a relaunch of the console itself.

In fact, while Xbox 360 hardware sales in the June-October period were up a very strong 63 percent over 2009, Microsoft actually bested that rate in November: sales were up 68 percent over November 2009.

Perhaps more importantly for Microsoft, when comparing average weekly rates, November 2010 was the best month the system has ever had. The previous record was 288,000 units per week in December 2008; November's set the new high bar at 344,000 units per week.

It seems all but certain that November's record of 1.37 million units will stand until next month, when the December data is released. Just maintaining the rate from November would give Microsoft its first 1.7 million-system Christmas.

While Microsoft has been dominating software for most of the year (the Xbox 360 has led in software revenue every month since April), it did exceptionally well in November.

Stitching together figures and proportions provided in the comments of Michael Pachter (analyst for Wedbush Securities), Anita Frazier (analyst for the NPD Group), and in Microsoft's own press release, we have what we believe is a reasonable picture of the Xbox 360's strong showing last month.

We wish to raise a few points about the details in this graph. First, note that the Xbox 360 is handily dominating each segment. In the case of hardware and accessories, this is directly attributable to the launch of Kinect.

For example, looking just at the effect of hardware bundle sales, we believe that Microsoft's average price for an Xbox 360 sold in November was around $290, which is more than $40 more than last month's average. Moreover, Wedbush's Pachter commented in his notes to investors that one half of all Xbox 360 systems sold in November were bundled with Kinect.

In the software segment, those 4.9 million copies of Call of Duty: Black Ops are the main cause for Microsoft's dominance, but it certainly did not hurt that six of the top 10 best-selling games in November were available on the Xbox 360. (In fact, as has traditionally been the case, the Xbox 360 version was probably the top-seller within each of those tiles.)

If we are on the cusp (or even past) the transition from the Wii to Xbox 360 as market leader, then 2011 will be a telling year for the market. Whereas Nintendo has had image problems and some notable failures for third-party software, Microsoft prides itself on its third-party software relations.

If Microsoft can make those third-parties successful on Kinect in ways that Nintendo has not on the Wii, then this temporary dominance for the Xbox 360 could continue well through 2011.

And, we should note, Microsoft still hasn't played its next big ace: a true price drop. They're long overdue, and we expect to see one sometime in mid-2011, especially if Xbox Kinect sales remain robust through the spring.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/31985/Analysis_Kinect_Could_Drive_Xbox_360_To_17M_US_Sales_This_December.php

Appropriately priced Kinect-360 bundle could be a killer! In my personal opinion 360 will peak this year and will marginally miss the peak next year unless there is a substantional price drop ($75-ish) although $50 could wreck some serious damage.. The software does not look good for next year unless the Halo: CE rumours are correct, then it's party time for me! But only "stellar" releases next year seem to be Forza 4 and Gears 3, both in the latter part of 2011. Fingers crossed for more announcements. Another COD? lol.

If MS only sells 1.7M 360s in December in NPD that will be a big disappointment. Last year 819.5K 360s were sold in Nov and 1.31M in Dec. If a similar 59.9% increase happens on the 1.37M of Nov 10 360 sales, we would expect sales of 2.19M 360s in Dec 10. Both last year and this year had 4 week November NPD periods and 5 week December NPD periods.

If we discount that number a bit for it being the 2nd month of Kinect, and not the launch month, and possible shortages of systems (Amazon and other retailers are currently cleaned out of all 360 systems) at say 20%, than we are looking at a target of about 2.0M 360s, which is what I am projecting it to sell.

1.7M would be disappointing.

Should do significantly more. 2m, I'd say, is a lowball. I'd think it would barely miss out on 2.5m.

The whole "transition of market leader" point is useless though. Even a price cut won't be able to sustain this year's sales and Wii could easily beat 360 in terms of price cuts.

Also, really, revenue means nothing. Give me profit or disappear into inexistence, ;P.

If MS does manage to sell close to 2.5M 360s in the December NPD and a similar increase is seen in EMEAA, than the 360 should definitely hit 50M worldwide by year end.

Profit > revenue. In my opinion.

What? I was just talking about the data provided to us. If you wanna attack Nintendo, respond to the paragraph above that one.

Anyway, Nintendo just lost some Q1 because of currency exchange problems and had a relatively pathetic Q2 (which was further deflated by the same). Doesn't MS Gaming Division (or whatever it's called) handle other stuff too though? Do we know exactly how much money MS made off videogames?

Will definitely break through that barrier with sales to spare. I can't see it doing amazingly in EMEAA though, but that's just me.

I am predicting 50.7M 360s worldwide the week ending 1/1/2011.

2.5M 360s in North America Dec 10.

1.5M 360s in EMEAA Dec 10.

0.05M 360s in Japan Dec 10.

Could work, I suppose. Though expecting 2.5m and 1.5m is rather optimistic.