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If MS only sells 1.7M 360s in December in NPD that will be a big disappointment. Last year 819.5K 360s were sold in Nov and 1.31M in Dec. If a similar 59.9% increase happens on the 1.37M of Nov 10 360 sales, we would expect sales of 2.19M 360s in Dec 10. Both last year and this year had 4 week November NPD periods and 5 week December NPD periods.

If we discount that number a bit for it being the 2nd month of Kinect, and not the launch month, and possible shortages of systems (Amazon and other retailers are currently cleaned out of all 360 systems) at say 20%, than we are looking at a target of about 2.0M 360s, which is what I am projecting it to sell.

1.7M would be disappointing.