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Forums - Sales Discussion - After Some Analysis I believe Reggie is Not BS About the Record

Just_Ben on 16 December 2007
DarkNight_DS said:
StarcraftManiac said:
johnlucas said:

20 Million worldwide.

Wii.

End of 2007...Calendar Year.

 

Prepare.

John Lucas

 


Get real dude. Wii still has 3.79 mil to go in 3 weeks.

Wii is currently selling at ~600k Ww. That means at a rate of 2.400.000+ units every month at it's current rate. That is well above the 1.8 mil they were creating every month. So yes, there is a stockpile.

But even if Nintendo managed to sell 1 mil 1 week for 3 months in a row (Which i highly doubt is possible) it wouldn't reach that 20 million mark of yours so my answer is no.

Not managable.


From looking at people's expectations this week, they expect around 1 million Wii's in NA and 500k in Europe plus 100k in Japan minimum. Most likely Europe could get around 750k if NA gets 1 million.


 And EU is not that bad sold out like the U.S. is. And I doubt it. This sale goes by sunday, so it won't be included in next comming numbers. And if they drop futher (we allready had 25% drop week to week) I say, they just stockpiled the last weeks, shipped some by airplane, and thats it. That would leave a hole after the number for week ending 22. A big hole. 

It won't reach 20 million. It could easily. I say no problem with 25 million either. But if there isn't enough supply, there isn't enough supply. End of storry. 



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Faxanadu on 16 December 2007
Just_Ben said:
omgwtfbbq said:
well considering Nintendo has production at 1.8 million per month, and we're currently selling at greater than 600k per week (ie, 2.4 million per month), those extra consoles have to come from somewhere.

Retail channel in europe? Germany is still not sold out, France retail channel seems to be healthy. Japan could be stocked?

And don't forget, it takes 20 days from Factory to Retailer. Thats the time the ship needs. Maybe they taking for the US holidays things with a aircraft? Could explain why some of the retailer don't get refill until Jan. With aircraft it should only take a week from producutin->retailer. That would give an extra from about 1 Million Units. Befor Christmass, but would leave an empty spot after crhistmass.

The Wii is sold out at amazon.de by the way. The ds is now availible there. The Wii was good availible at Toys'R'us however (at least in my town).


Toys R us, now thats a store i have not been to in a looong time. last game i bought there was Zelda 2.... 



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reverie on 16 December 2007
StarcraftManiac said:

 


Wii is currently selling at ~600k Ww. That means at a rate of 2.400.000+ units every month at it's current rate. That is well above the 1.8 mil they were creating every month. So yes, there is a stockpile.

 

Sorry, that's the consoles they didn't sell in October and early November. 1.8 million per month equals 420k per week, and now look at the graph, retailers sold less than 420k for each of the first 6 weeks of the quarter:

 http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=Wii&reg2=All&cons3=Wii&reg3=All&start=39355&end=39425

Now they're selling more then 420k per week for the latter 7 weeks of the quarter. In the end, it will still add up 3 x 1.8 million = 5.4 million in the quarter and thus -- no stockpile. Funny, that's what Gerge Harrison and Reggie have stated repeatedly, what a coincidence.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

tokilamockingbrd on 16 December 2007

^they have been soldout all year in the US, in Europe maybe not as much-
The reason that sales were under the 1.8 is because of the Holiday stockpiling which is being unleashed now. So basically your last post agreed with my topic... that must have been accident...



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

reverie on 16 December 2007

It's not an accident but one of the confusing details in these ongoing arguments. Selling a console in November instead of October can be called stockpiling in most circumstances, but whenever we argued about Nintendo stockpiling here it was about the question if they have put back systems in Spring and Summer to sell them in Winter, which I think (and they say) they haven't. I really don't have an issue with stating some systems were shipped in October and sold not in November but in December.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

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GhaudePhaede010 on 18 December 2007

For Qourey.



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