We've gotten Wii numbers every month from people with NPD regardless of their clamp down. After this December, if Wii does get to about 3m in the USA, then it will be nearly 2 full years ahead of PS2.  PS2 hit 34.8m in October 2006, roughly 72 months on the market. Wii should be at or near 34.5m ( /- 0.5m) in Dec 2010, roughly 50 months on the market. So Wii will be 21-23 months ahead of the PS2 pace in the USA by year end.

You have to remember the PS2 vs. Wii pricing history as well:

By month 50, which is where Wii will be for December 2010, Sony had already dropped the PS2 price from $300 to $200, from $200 to $180 and from $180 to $150. Even after those drops, Sony had to introduce the PS2 Slim. PS2 had three price drops and a new hardware model to keep sales up in its first fifty months.

For Wii its more like this:

When Nintendo cut the Wii price in late September 2009, Sony had already cut $120 off the original PS2 price, and Wii was still trending higher than PS2 at a higher price point. In month 38, when Walmart cut the Wii price to $150 for three out of five December weeks, Nintendo sold 3.81m Wiis in the USA - nearly matching the combined total of PS2 in its best holiday season for NOV AND DEC in 2002 (3.9 vs. 3.81m). Then May 2010, Nintendo introduced the Black Wii / Wii 2 game bundles. In month 49 Nintendo had the NSMB Wii limited edition and some BF help (Kmart / Sears / Best Buy had Wii for $170 - $190 that week). For month 50, we know there is at least drop to $150.

That said, PS2 needed four price drops, the PS2 Slim, six years, and overwhelming third party support to reach 35m in 73 months. Wii will reach 35m in 51 months, with one price cut, two new bundles, and two temporary retailer price cuts.

Those figures just provided by TheSource surprise me greatly, especially since they contrast so dramatically with the figures from Japan.  I have to wonder why we've taken to the system much more than other countries, and why American support has only now started to dry up for the Wii when it's surged or stayed steady for the other consoles.

Japan is the land of Portables. People in japan prefers portables because it adapts to their lifestyles. They commute a lot, they make lines for everything, they are hardly at home.

NDS is the mainstream (for everybody) console while the PSP is the "cool" (teenage boys and girls) one and the game consoles are just for small niches: PS3 is for old hardcore gamers, Wii for housewives and their families and the Xbox360 is....well for curious ones.

I doubt that game consoles will have the same importance in japan like they did before or like america and europe for that matter.

So now all we need are the rest of the numbers (Americas specifically) in order to start tracking...

Good news regarding my initial theory. At least two of the five weeks of December will have Wii at less than $200 with two games.

Walmart: $150 Dec 5 - Dec 11.

Target: $177 Dec 12 - Dec 18.

Best Buy: $180 Dec 12 - Dec 18

Wii did over 500k in the USA the week after BF, so these deals should keep sales at a staggering pace.

360 5th Holiday Season (assuming Source means FULL holiday given 2004 was PS2's 5th holiday)

November 2010 - 360, 1,370,000 > PS2 2004 & 2005 combined, 1,220,000
December 2010 - 360, ?                  ? PS2 2004 & 2005 combined, 2,490,000

If 360 does do 2.5 mill this Dec NPD, it's bigger than PS2 in 2004 and 2005 combined. Wow.

360 has a real chance of becoming the 2nd best selling console in the USA of all time.

Edit - sorry for going off topic

If the 360 wants to be the second biggest selling console of all time in the Americas then first it has around a 10 million deficit to make up on the wii, which will still be selling consoles at a steady rate for a good few years and then it has the following in it's way. (numbers taken from VGC hardware totals)

1)PS2 -  52.56 million

2)PS - 40.78

3)Wii - 37.24

4)Nes - 34

5)360 - 27.41

Out of the two, I can only see the wii getting close to the numbers the PS2 pumped out. I think maybe 50mil life time in the Americas alone is achievable.  The 360s continued success will be down to how long everyone holds off for the next generation.  The rate at which PC technology has accelerated and the fact they have said console gaming is holding everything back could soon be a catalyst.  

I can't see the 360s tail sales being big enough upon the launch of the next gen xbox to push it into second overall.  I see the next gen consoles being released mid 2013.  That gives the 360 about 2 1/2 years to keep successful sales up before they peter out, but even then it would need 15mil (so 6 mil a year in the Americas) to topple the playstation and god knows how many more the wii will sell between then and now.

I just can't see it happening.

I think Seece is talking about holiday sales (Nov-Dec) only.

No I'm talking about USA, not Americas.

Wii will be first so it doesn't need to overtake it, it just need around 19 mill by the end of this holiday to overtake PS2 in US.

If it gets around 2 mill in Dec (likely whatever pacter says) that means it will have a 7 million selling year. So 19 there for the rest of its life will be a peice of cake.

US is where the 360 will sustain the longest, and sell well at $99.

BTW

360 - 23.5
PS2 - 45

Roughly I think.

The Target, BestBuy and Kmart deals this week dont require a puchase other than the Wii itself. Also the deal is on the front page of the weekly ad for all of themm.