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*Sound Of Rain on 05 December 2010
Immortal said:
*Sound Of Rain said:
Immortal said:
*Sound Of Rain said:

I agree that the Wii will outsell its last years numbers! I also see the Wii having a very strong 2011 with its sales being at the 100 Million mark by years end. If anything 360 will be in trouble in 2011.


D:.

You stole my idea!

That was gonna be my next thread about how the Wii is gonna sell 100m before 2012, :P. It's actually pretty probable. Since Wii will probably be left at 84-85m by the end of the year (more if this prediction comes true), and it has Zelda SS, TLS, a possible DQX and VS, along with god knows how many other titles announced at E3, it should break 100m easily without a price cut.

Do you think that Wii could still outsell PS2 in lifetime sales worldwide? I am one of the few people who do...

Are you reading my mind or something, :P? I think it stands a very good chance. It'll only be barely though. Probably something like PS2 153m, Wii 155m.

By the way 2011 will also have Just Dance 3...this game alone almost guarantees a strong Holiday 2011 for Wii.



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Immortal on 05 December 2010
*Sound Of Rain said:

By the way 2011 will also have Just Dance 3...this game alone almost guarantees a strong Holiday 2011 for Wii.


Oh, yeah! Looking at that franchise's legs and growth, it could be a 10m selling franchise by then, :O!

Unless, of course, Ubisoft shoots itself in the foot and ports it to Kinect/Move. That'll kill its Wii legs and the franchise ain't gonna do better on PS360.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

TWRoO on 05 December 2010
Immortal said:
TWRoO said:

Before you sign away your girlfriend... ignoring heavy adjustments, for the Wii to reach 50% marketshare it has to outsell the combined sales of the PS3 and 360 within your timeframe by 11 million.

for example if the Wii can somehow equal the HD twins between now and January, then somehow matches it's best year so far for 2011 (ie sells 24.4 million in 2011) then the combined sales of the PS3 and 360 would have to be less than 13.4 million. (which is a figure both of the HD consoles are going to at least get close to this year)


I think we were talking about individual years, not altogether, :P. That's impossible, :P. I may be fanboyish, but I'm not delusional.

Ah ok, apologies.

Thought you were the new John Lucas for a moment. (if you don't know who he is, back in 2007/8 he was predicting the Wii to have lifetime sales of 500 million)



*Sound Of Rain on 05 December 2010
Immortal said:
*Sound Of Rain said:

By the way 2011 will also have Just Dance 3...this game alone almost guarantees a strong Holiday 2011 for Wii.


Oh, yeah! Looking at that franchise's legs and growth, it could be a 10m selling franchise by then, :O!

Unless, of course, Ubisoft shoots itself in the foot and ports it to Kinect/Move. That'll kill its Wii legs and the franchise ain't gonna do better on PS360.

As of now Just Dance 3 is Wii exclusive and due for a release in Late 2011 according to Ubisoft.



Immortal on 05 December 2010
TWRoO said:
Immortal said:
TWRoO said:

Before you sign away your girlfriend... ignoring heavy adjustments, for the Wii to reach 50% marketshare it has to outsell the combined sales of the PS3 and 360 within your timeframe by 11 million.

for example if the Wii can somehow equal the HD twins between now and January, then somehow matches it's best year so far for 2011 (ie sells 24.4 million in 2011) then the combined sales of the PS3 and 360 would have to be less than 13.4 million. (which is a figure both of the HD consoles are going to at least get close to this year)


I think we were talking about individual years, not altogether, :P. That's impossible, :P. I may be fanboyish, but I'm not delusional.

Ah ok, apologies.

Thought you were the new John Lucas for a moment. (if you don't know who he is, back in 2007/8 he was predicting the Wii to have lifetime sales of 500 million)

It's fine, xD. Would've been hillarious to be him and get it right though, :D.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

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Immortal on 05 December 2010
*Sound Of Rain said:
Immortal said:
*Sound Of Rain said:

By the way 2011 will also have Just Dance 3...this game alone almost guarantees a strong Holiday 2011 for Wii.


Oh, yeah! Looking at that franchise's legs and growth, it could be a 10m selling franchise by then, :O!

Unless, of course, Ubisoft shoots itself in the foot and ports it to Kinect/Move. That'll kill its Wii legs and the franchise ain't gonna do better on PS360.

As of now Just Dance 3 is Wii exclusive and due for a release in Late 2011 according to Ubisoft.

Hopefully, it'll stay that way. Would be fun to see a yearly 10m franchise on the Wii, even if it only lasts for a year, xD.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

thx1139 on 05 December 2010
Immortal said:
thx1139 said:
Immortal said:


While that's probably true, Wii had been getting closer to last year's performand anyway and would have been only slightly under its 2009 performance had it not been for the release of NSMB the week before. I doubt it would have been too much off last year even without the deals and, with DKCR, DEM and the increasing effect of the Red Wii in the holidays, it should still get close to my prediction as I do have it hugely under last year for this week, which hasn't had many deals going on according to your observations. Anyway, there's pretty much no doubt it'll be up YOY in EMEAA because of the bundles and should be enough to counter the YOY losses in Japan and then some so Americas can be a little down as well.

Why is it going to be up in EMEAA. It was down 75,000 from last year this past week. So all of a sudden it is going to go from down like 20% to up YoY.  I dont get it.

The MKW and WFP bundles. The NSMB bundle took two weeks to really boost the Wii in EMEAA so I'm guessing the MKW bundle will do the same. With the WFP bundles on top of that... it's gonna sell a lot.

EDIT: For your other comment, I seriously doubt that's gonna affect Wii sales at all. The Wii stopped selling to people who are influenced that easily back in early 2009. Now, it's selling to people who won't just let peer/media pressure force them onto a console, Nintendo fans who haven't bought a Wii yet and people with budgets.

Honestly the Wii is at like 80Million. What Nintendo fans are left that havent picked up a Wii yet.  This isnt peer/media pressure it is information for the consumer and the NY Time article is 100% correct. Unless Sony and Nintendo just abandon Move and Kinect software all Wii has left if people who want Nintendo exclusives and that means Zelda and what Nintendo fan that wants Zelda hasnt picked up a Wii yet.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

thx1139 on 05 December 2010
*Sound Of Rain said:
Immortal said:

Are you reading my mind or something, :P? I think it stands a very good chance. It'll only be barely though. Probably something like PS2 153m, Wii 155m.

By the way 2011 will also have Just Dance 3...this game alone almost guarantees a strong Holiday 2011 for Wii.

Just Dance 3 will just sell to existing Wii owners.   With Dance Central and surely a good dance game on Move next year (perhaps Just Dance 3 itself) Just Dance 3 wont sell consoles.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

Cheebee on 05 December 2010

I highly approve of this thread, and I hereby award it with the official Award of Awesomeness.



Nintendo Network ID: Cheebee   3DS Code: 2320 - 6113 - 9046

 

Immortal on 05 December 2010
thx1139 said:

Honestly the Wii is at like 80Million. What Nintendo fans are left that havent picked up a Wii yet.  This isnt peer/media pressure it is information for the consumer and the NY Time article is 100% correct. Unless Sony and Nintendo just abandon Move and Kinect software all Wii has left if people who want Nintendo exclusives and that means Zelda and what Nintendo fan that wants Zelda hasnt picked up a Wii yet.


Are you kidding me, :P? Even though people online are obviously not the majority, there's a huge number of Nintendo fans who "were disappointed by the Wii and sold it back" online. Surely, that must mean something. Also, those who wanted to buy a Wii and held it off were most likely looking at games already and a lot of Wii's appealing games (MKWii, NSMBWii, anything except "Wii" games) are exclusive. Therefore, they wouldn't be lured to the competition so quickly. Also, "people who want Nintendo exclusives" is probably a bigger number than what either of the HD consoles is going to have as their final userbase, :P. And that's a lot more than Zelda.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx