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Forums - Sales - Statistical anomolies, predictions and unlikely million-sellers (Wii)

SaviorX said:

I needed a thread to post this in:

 

Upcoming Wii Million Sellers - I bolded the ones that will most likely pass the milestone before the year ends

Donkey Kong Country Returns

Michael Jackson: The Experience

uDraw Studio

Call of Duty Black Ops

Kirby’s Epic Yarn

Goldeneye

Pokepark Wii: Pikachu’s Adventure

LEGO Harry Potter: Years 1-4

Hasbro Family Game Night

Rabbids Go Home

Gold’s Gym Cardio Workout

The Biggest Loser

Super Monkey Ball: Banana Blitz

Super Mario All-Stars: LE

Nerf N-Strike Elite

Hmm...you really reckon they'll be 100 million-sellers on the Wii by 2011?



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

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Mr.Metralha said:

I don't think Red Steel 2 will beat 1 million.

The game is no even inside the top200, lol.

Its said that the game flopped, it is actually a very good game and has very nice graphics.

I suppose we shall see, do you reckon it'll top 500k though?



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

enrageorange said:
Conegamer said:
Boutros said:

Well New Super Mario Bros. Wii is still behind MW2, no?

And now it's bundled ---» Not fair.

I think MW2 (with PC sales) is higher than Mario Kart Wii actually...

I was just counting the sales from the 360 version, which I believe is now below that of NSMBWii.

The bundling thing, yes, I admit, may be an issue. But, the bundle has only just occured, no? It's not like it's been going on for a LONG time, such as Wii Sports resort or something...

I have proof here;

19 Wii New Super Mario Bros. Wii Nintendo 8.55 4.07 4.98 17.60
29 X360 Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 Activision 8.13 0.08 3.70 11.91

I don't think there's been nearly 5.5million copies of NSMBWii bundled in the past few weeks so it has indeed overtaken it out of previous sales

he means combined. And of course when games have huge openings their legs see a bigger % dip. Legs means how well the game sells after the first few weeks not how well it sells compared to its first week like you seem to be implying. Hell that means Sniper Ghost Warrior has some of the best legs this gen simply because its first week was low. I will give you a quick comparision. Everyone raves about how good littlebigplanet's and just dance's legs are. But week 5-to date of call of duty modern warfare 2(360) are higher then ether of those games total sales. Even earasing the first few weeks of "frontloaded sales" it outsold them. I don't think anyone has ever said the nintendo "wii" games have bad legs though. They have among the best legs of any none console bundled games ever.

Hmm...that's a very interesting way of looking at things. I always though it was a percentage thing. I suppose I was wrong. Either way, he didn't seem to understand I meant the 360 version (which I thought I stated?) but yeah, it was pretty legsy for a while, but nowhere near as much as NSMBwii anyway



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

This thread got me thinking about the sales trends for Wii games compared to the other 2 consoles. It does seem like the big Wii games (New Super Mario Bros./Mario Kart Wii) follow a different path than the big games on the HD consoles (Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, Halo, Metal Gear Solid 4, etc.). But I was wondering if those same trends apply to the games on the consoles in general, or if they are only how the more prolific games sell.

So I did a quick little study. I used a random number generator to to pick a month from 2009 (it gave me 2 so February), and then used the random number generator to pick 5 games from the list of games released in that month according to gamrReview.

 Sample of Released Games in Feb. 2009 Americas

Wii        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
10 High School musical Senior Year 15,745 244,858 6.43%
5 Deadly Creatures 3,874 76,012 5.10%
14 Yamaha Supercross 2,215 45,369 4.88%
7 Onechanbara: Bikini Zombie Slayers 11,810 89,219 13.24%
15 Puzzle Challenge: Crosswords and More! 253 12,335 2.05%
  Average     6.34%
         
Xbox 360        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
5 X-Blades 13,150 91,399 14.39%
6 High School musical Senior Year 8,899 64,373 13.82%
2 F.E.A.R. 2: Project Origin 83,093 346,655 23.97%
4 Sonic's Ultimate Genesis Collection ( 24,171 438,987 5.51%
13 Eat Lead: The Return of Matt Hazard 17,112 106,901 16.01%
  Average     14.74%
         
PS3        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
6 Street Fighter IV 259,337 967,545 26.80%
10 Killzone 2 359,354 1,194,984 30.07%
4 X-Blades 3,027 46,023 6.58%
8 ShellShock 2: Blood Trails 3,981 41,694 9.55%
5 High School musical Senior Year 4,805 37,739 12.73%
  Average     17.15%

I did the same thing for Japan, except that the random gen # was 11, so November 2009 releases.

Japan November (11 Rand Gen #)  
Wii        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
1 Mario & Sonic at Vancouver Olympics 23,482 140,887 16.67%
9 Naruto Shippuden: Ryujinki 8,996 33,167 27.12%
7 Karaoke Joysound Wii DX 4,637 86,196 5.38%
10 Puyo Puyo 7 3,511 53,052 6.62%
5 Metal Fight Beyblade: Gachinko Stadium 8,941 28,287 31.61%
  Average     17.48%
         
360        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
6 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast 6,470 19,450 33.26%
1 Dirt 2 787 1,466 53.68%
2 Namco Museum: Virtual Arcade 3,526 12,608 27.97%
5 Tayutama: Kiss on my Deity 3,854 8,820 43.70%
10 Mushihimesama Futari Ver 1.5 13,939 31,628 44.07%
  Average     40.54%
         
PS3        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
6 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast 60,699 112,976 53.73%
3 inFamous: Akumei Takaki Otoko 15,992 46,222 34.60%
2 Colin McRae: DiRT 2 1,804 3,561 50.66%
4 NBA Live 10 4,413 7,366 59.91%
8 Ratchet & Clank Future 2 13,817 27,969 49.40%
  Average     49.66%

I tried to do the same for Europe, but too many games were missing data, so I left it at Americas and Japan for now.

Obviously this is a very very small sample size, but it does seem to indicate that Wii games in general have a higher first week to life time sales multiplier, not just for high profile releases.

Of course that could/probably be due in large part because of the genre's of games, casual titles have a higher first week to life time sales ratio in general, so if the Wii gets more of those games, it will make it's ratio higher. Still the High School Musical game that was released for all consoles in Americas, had the lowest First week/total sales ratio of the three consoles. So there probably are other factors involved with the Wii having a lower first week/total sales ratio overall.

It would be interesting to do a study looking specifically at certain genres (like how do FPSs in general compare to fps on the HD consoles) in first week/life time sales ratios.

I know this wasn't exactly what this topic was about, but since it was what convinced me to look at this I thought I would post in here instead of make a new thread.



Meh, I knew about this trend ages ago. You can do better than that. I'll give this thread a 5.87/10.



Above: still the best game of the year.

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Beuli2 said:

Meh, I knew about this trend ages ago. You can do better than that. I'll give this thread a 5.87/10.

:(

I'll try and jazz it up for you then. I have limited time now, so tomorrow.

Just to gauge...if I were to put in lots of info and pictures and advertisements for DKCR would that make it much better?



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

09tarheel said:

This thread got me thinking about the sales trends for Wii games compared to the other 2 consoles. It does seem like the big Wii games (New Super Mario Bros./Mario Kart Wii) follow a different path than the big games on the HD consoles (Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, Halo, Metal Gear Solid 4, etc.). But I was wondering if those same trends apply to the games on the consoles in general, or if they are only how the more prolific games sell.

So I did a quick little study. I used a random number generator to to pick a month from 2009 (it gave me 2 so February), and then used the random number generator to pick 5 games from the list of games released in that month according to gamrReview.

 Sample of Released Games in Feb. 2009 Americas

Wii        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
10 High School musical Senior Year 15,745 244,858 6.43%
5 Deadly Creatures 3,874 76,012 5.10%
14 Yamaha Supercross 2,215 45,369 4.88%
7 Onechanbara: Bikini Zombie Slayers 11,810 89,219 13.24%
15 Puzzle Challenge: Crosswords and More! 253 12,335 2.05%
  Average     6.34%
         
Xbox 360        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
5 X-Blades 13,150 91,399 14.39%
6 High School musical Senior Year 8,899 64,373 13.82%
2 F.E.A.R. 2: Project Origin 83,093 346,655 23.97%
4 Sonic's Ultimate Genesis Collection ( 24,171 438,987 5.51%
13 Eat Lead: The Return of Matt Hazard 17,112 106,901 16.01%
  Average     14.74%
         
PS3        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
6 Street Fighter IV 259,337 967,545 26.80%
10 Killzone 2 359,354 1,194,984 30.07%
4 X-Blades 3,027 46,023 6.58%
8 ShellShock 2: Blood Trails 3,981 41,694 9.55%
5 High School musical Senior Year 4,805 37,739 12.73%
  Average     17.15%

I did the same thing for Japan, except that the random gen # was 11, so November 2009 releases.

Japan November (11 Rand Gen #)  
Wii        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
1 Mario & Sonic at Vancouver Olympics 23,482 140,887 16.67%
9 Naruto Shippuden: Ryujinki 8,996 33,167 27.12%
7 Karaoke Joysound Wii DX 4,637 86,196 5.38%
10 Puyo Puyo 7 3,511 53,052 6.62%
5 Metal Fight Beyblade: Gachinko Stadium 8,941 28,287 31.61%
  Average     17.48%
         
360        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
6 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast 6,470 19,450 33.26%
1 Dirt 2 787 1,466 53.68%
2 Namco Museum: Virtual Arcade 3,526 12,608 27.97%
5 Tayutama: Kiss on my Deity 3,854 8,820 43.70%
10 Mushihimesama Futari Ver 1.5 13,939 31,628 44.07%
  Average     40.54%
         
PS3        
Random Number Game First Week Lifetime First Week % Of Lifetime
6 Dragon Ball: Raging Blast 60,699 112,976 53.73%
3 inFamous: Akumei Takaki Otoko 15,992 46,222 34.60%
2 Colin McRae: DiRT 2 1,804 3,561 50.66%
4 NBA Live 10 4,413 7,366 59.91%
8 Ratchet & Clank Future 2 13,817 27,969 49.40%
  Average     49.66%

I tried to do the same for Europe, but too many games were missing data, so I left it at Americas and Japan for now.

Obviously this is a very very small sample size, but it does seem to indicate that Wii games in general have a higher first week to life time sales multiplier, not just for high profile releases.

Of course that could/probably be due in large part because of the genre's of games, casual titles have a higher first week to life time sales ratio in general, so if the Wii gets more of those games, it will make it's ratio higher. Still the High School Musical game that was released for all consoles in Americas, had the lowest First week/total sales ratio of the three consoles. So there probably are other factors involved with the Wii having a lower first week/total sales ratio overall.

It would be interesting to do a study looking specifically at certain genres (like how do FPSs in general compare to fps on the HD consoles) in first week/life time sales ratios.

I know this wasn't exactly what this topic was about, but since it was what convinced me to look at this I thought I would post in here instead of make a new thread.

:O

It's quite amazing the trend difference between the Wii and the HD consoles based on American sales, but for some reason the Japanese sales seem more typical. Maybe the Japanese is the more "hardcore" gaming community? At any rate, this is very useful information and backs up my point further

Where did you find it?



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Good observation, but you could use better examples. How about Wii Party or Kirby's Epic Yarn or even FlingSmash if it ends up doing well?



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx

Immortal said:

Good observation, but you could use better examples. How about Wii Party or Kirby's Epic Yarn or even FlingSmash if it ends up doing well?

I'm planning on expanding this to incorporate more games, but I'm pushed for time and resources IMO >.<

Tomorrow I shall update with your ideas



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer said:
Immortal said:

Good observation, but you could use better examples. How about Wii Party or Kirby's Epic Yarn or even FlingSmash if it ends up doing well?

I'm planning on expanding this to incorporate more games, but I'm pushed for time and resources IMO >.<

Tomorrow I shall update with your ideas

How can it be your opinion that you're pushed for time and resources, xD?

This is something really cool about the Wii, though. It means that Wii can come in first place altogether even if it is never in first place weekly and doesn't have any titles in the top ten.



 

“These are my principles; if you don’t like them, I have others.” – Groucho Marx