So far 2010 is way down for games to sell 500k+ on Wii, PS3 or X360 individually. Whereas 2008 had almost 190 such instances, 2010 will likely end up around 140. 2009 was over 150. The 750k level is more stable - with 2008 seeing 98 instances of a game topping 750k on one of the three systems, and 2010 likely down to only 90 instances.
At the 1m level, 2009 was a bad year, but 2008 and 2010 could end up very similar. Wii still has games like Kirby, Michael Jackson, Epic Mickey, DKC, Mario Collection that will top 1m in 2010 with more time, and other titles at nearly 1m that will top 1m by year end. Most PS3 / X360 content that will top 1m already has in contrast.
2010 looks like the peak years for games to top 1.5m on one of the consoles. That shouldn't be surprising as even though the user bases are bigger, the "lists" for each customer are getting shorter. So games on those short purchasing lists will continue to perform at record levels, while smaller stuff falls off. 2m is similar - but its still 4-5% of the PS3 / X360 base, so the level is pretty flat against 2008.
It should however be a record year at the 3m level (already 13 games on Wii, PS3 or X360 have sold 3m units on that console - equal to 2008). This is because most console users are still buying two games a year - and so games that are frequently amongst those two games in for the various consoles will do exceptionally well this year.
| 500k+ | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 YTD | 2010E |
| Wii | 0 | 3 | 24 | 67 | 53 | 29 | 40 |
| PS3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 52 | 40 | 49 | 55 |
| X360 | 1 | 12 | 27 | 69 | 60 | 47 | 52 |
| 750k+ | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 YTD | 2010E |
| Wii | 0 | 3 | 17 | 35 | 24 | 13 | 24 |
| PS3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 26 | 22 | 28 | 32 |
| X360 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 37 | 33 | 24 | 30 |
| 1m+ | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 YTD | 2010E |
| Wii | 0 | 2 | 13 | 24 | 17 | 10 | 22 |
| PS3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 21 |
| X360 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 27 | 26 | 19 | 24 |
| 1.5m+ | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 YTD | 2010E |
| Wii | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 14 |
| PS3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 16 |
| X360 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 18 |
| 2m+ | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 YTD | 2010E |
| Wii | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 11 |
| PS3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 |
| X360 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| 3m+ | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 YTD | 2010E |
| Wii | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 9 |
| PS3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| X360 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
PS3 and X360 have already had record years for "super software" games which sell over 3m in a single year. Wii should get to a record year at this level too.
Overall, if you have a 1m+ game, you're still in good shape - its only below 1m that content is begginning to fall off, as those games tend to be third / fourth / fifth place on lists of what people want for a year. The hits become more concentrated over time in a generation. 50 million people buying 4 games (Wii in 2008) is different from 70m buying 2.8 games (Wii in 2009) even though the absolute figures are similar.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
