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Forums - General - Economic siutation of Europe and the Euro.

What's the deal?

Not living in Europe I can't really get much good information...

but it looks like Portugal is going to need a bailout now?  They say they aren't...

but so did Greece and Ireland.

 

Are there many more countries like this? 



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Spain. They have an extreme unemployment rate (20% , believe me or not) and aren't doing too well... news sources report that Italy is also in a fragile state (none of that rampant unemployment, though)...



Ireland and Greece are in the shit. Haven't heard about Portugal... The big three (Germany, France and the UK) seem to be out of recession and growing again.



Only Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland



kowenicki said:

Commonly referred to in economic circles as the PIGS.

Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain.   Dont shoot the messenger.... it is a VERY widely used term in economic circles.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PIGS_(economicshttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8510603.stm

Probably PIIGS now if you chuck Ireland in,

The euro is a flawed model and was always going to falter.  You cannot have one fiscal policy for such diiverse economic situations, some mature, some far from mature.  e.g. Germany and Greece.

Thank God we didnt join....


See... and I was going to suggest Spain might also need a bailout but I didn't want to upset the Spanish.  Ha.  Go figure.



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tombi123 said:

Ireland and Greece are in the shit. Haven't heard about Portugal... The big three (Germany, France and the UK) seem to be out of recession and growing again.

Not really, when theyre talking about austerity, 5 countries are usually always mentioned: Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland and the UK, because they all have massive budget deposits. Greece and Ireland have already accepted bailouts, Portugal and Spain could but Im not very knowledgeable about their situation.
The Government in the UK wont accept one and there would major repercussions if they did (although I figure anyone from the other 4 countries would say the same, and look what happened in Greece). The difference being the UK is the most Eurospectic country in the EU and does not use the Euro.



There are different situations. Greece's problems was a lot due to public expenses.

But that's not the case with Ireland, whose problems are almost solely due to a housing bubble. The Irish  taxpayers are now being sold out to the domestic and foreign bankers, who are not suffering at all due to their mistakes. Instead of defaulting on their debt, Ireland is taking on more loans to keep bailing out the crappy banks. The interest on those loans alone amounts to more than $1000 per year for each family that will have to be covered by new taxes if the "bailout" is approved.

One thing to definitely keep in mind: these "bailouts" are poisoned gifts, they are in fact partially enslaving the taxpayers to be the sole sufferers of bankers' mistakes.

If you look at Portugal, the fiscal situation (debt and deficit) is pretty much the same as countries like the US (not as bad as Greece for example), but the interest rates demanded by the financial markets are going up so much that borrowing more becomes impossibly expensive.

PS: There will be more countries in trouble, yes. Compared to Portugal, Spain has better public finances but very high unemployment. If Spain's finances blow up (interest rates are very high for them too), that's a huge economic hole on the EU, as Spain has 50 million inhabitants. Eventually all the countries will be affected.



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Mary is the proprietor of a bar in Dublin . She realizes that 
virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, 
can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she 
comes up with new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink 
now, but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger 
(thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around about Mary’s "drink now, pay later" marketing 
strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into 
Mary’s bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in 
Dublin .

By providing her customers' freedom from immediate payment demands, 
Mary gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially 
increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages.
Consequently, Mary's gross sales volume increases massively. A young 
and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these 
customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Mary's 
borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has 
the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank's corporate headquarters, expert traders figure a way to 
make huge commissions, and transform these customer loans into 
DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then bundled 
and traded on international security markets. Naive investors don't 
really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAA 
secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed alcoholics. 
Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities 
soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation's leading 
brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk 
manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to 
demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Mary’s bar. He 
so informs Mary.

Mary then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being 
unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts.
Since, Mary cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into 
bankruptcy. The bar closes and the eleven employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS drop in price by 90%.
The collapsed bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity and 
prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic 
activity in the community.

The suppliers of Mary’s bar had granted her generous payment 
extensions and had invested their firms' pension funds in the various 
BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off 
her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the 
bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on 
a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer 
supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the 
local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their 
respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multi-billion 
dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from their cronies in 
Government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new 
taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers who have never 
been in Marys’s bar.



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Ireland would have been able to pay its debts for the first half of 2011, but was pressured to accept the help from the EU and IMF. They're getting a 90 billion euro insurrance/loan, which is supposed to be paid back.

Next in the line-up of doom are Portugal and to a lesser extent Spain.

The Portuguese and Spanish economies are heavily intertwined, with Spanish banks having large stakes in Portugal.

Because investors are loosing faith in all these countries the EU is now (probably) pressuring Portugal into getting a loan, so that when Portugal gets help, maybe Spain won't need it. Spain is a much larger economy then Greece, Ireland or Portugal and so would be a huge problem for the Eurozone.

 

Italy doesn't get mentioned that often, but it's economy and debts aren't too healthy. In addition Belgium is coming into the picture as well even if its problems are by far not as big as the other countries. However it does have a big debt and has trouble forming a coalition government (which is always the case in Belgium) resulting in no new policy.



Are all the countries that are accepting baiouts being pressured into more integration with the EU?