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Forums - Sales Discussion - How Much Will GT5 Sell By The End of 2010 ?

 

How Much Will GT5 Sell By The End of 2010 ?

2.0 - 3.0 Million 19 8.19%
 
3.0 - 4.0 Million 54 23.28%
 
4.0 - 5.0 Million 100 43.10%
 
5.0 - 6.0 Millon 38 16.38%
 
6.0 - 7.0 Million 21 9.05%
 
Total:232
Seece on 28 November 2010

6 mill isn't doable if the data we have is correct "First week sales are expected to hit around 2.4 - 2.5 million units" (feel free to feed me MAJOR crow if I'm wrong)

Week 1 - 2.5 mill - Launching WW, Black Friday.

Week 2 - 400k?

If you look at Halo 3, Reach, MW2 360, Black ops ect, all with massive openings around 4/5 mill, all did around 600k - 800k 2nd week. Now you could say, they had extra days in the market VS GT5, but they didn't launch during BF week, with a huge Japan opening. Which brings me to my 2nd point, sales in Japan drop off VERY hard and fast for the vast majority of games there. So GT5 is going to see a very harsh drop off in week 2.

Beyond that I can't tell how the game will fare over xmas, those figures I posted were rough. But this is mainly in response to people saying 6 mill ...



 

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Jay520 on 28 November 2010
Seece said:

Nov 30th - 2.5 mill? (think that's what the projections say)
Dec 6th - 400k
Dec 13th - 300k
Dec 20th - 350k
Dec 27th - 350k

Roughly, will just break 4 mill


Why the huge drop off 2nd week.

GT4 did 1mil 2nd week.... I believe.



Jay520 on 28 November 2010

yeah it did 1mil 2nd week. 

People really shouldn't compare car sims to shooters. different sales patterns



Seece on 28 November 2010
RolStoppable said:
Seece said:

6 mill isn't doable if the data we have is correct "First week sales are expected to hit around 2.4 - 2.5 million units" (feel free to feed me MAJOR crow if I'm wrong)

Week 1 - 2.5 mill - Launching WW, Black Friday.

Week 2 - 400k?

If you look at Halo 3, Reach, MW2 360, Black ops ect, all with massive openings around 4/5 mill, all did around 600k - 800k 2nd week. Now you could say, they had extra days in the market VS GT5, but they didn't launch during BF week, with a huge Japan opening. Which brings me to my 2nd point, sales in Japan drop off VERY hard and fast for the vast majority of games there. So GT5 is going to see a very harsh drop off in week 2.

Beyond that I can't tell how the game will fare over xmas, those figures I posted were rough. But this is mainly in response to people saying 6 mill ...

You should rather look at this and then come up with reasons why GT5 should come in below those numbers despite having the benefit of the holiday season.

So GT5 will sell 1 million week 2?



 

Jay520 on 28 November 2010
Seece said:
RolStoppable said:
Seece said:

6 mill isn't doable if the data we have is correct "First week sales are expected to hit around 2.4 - 2.5 million units" (feel free to feed me MAJOR crow if I'm wrong)

Week 1 - 2.5 mill - Launching WW, Black Friday.

Week 2 - 400k?

If you look at Halo 3, Reach, MW2 360, Black ops ect, all with massive openings around 4/5 mill, all did around 600k - 800k 2nd week. Now you could say, they had extra days in the market VS GT5, but they didn't launch during BF week, with a huge Japan opening. Which brings me to my 2nd point, sales in Japan drop off VERY hard and fast for the vast majority of games there. So GT5 is going to see a very harsh drop off in week 2.

Beyond that I can't tell how the game will fare over xmas, those figures I posted were rough. But this is mainly in response to people saying 6 mill ...

You should rather look at this and then come up with reasons why GT5 should come in below those numbers despite having the benefit of the holiday season.

So GT5 will sell 1 million week 2?

possibly, but it should do more than your prediction. I think around 800k



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Seece on 28 November 2010
RolStoppable said:
Seece said:
RolStoppable said:

You should rather look at this and then come up with reasons why GT5 should come in below those numbers despite having the benefit of the holiday season.

So GT5 will sell 1 million week 2?

Why shouldn't it?

Because it's not made by Nintendo.



 

Seece on 28 November 2010
RolStoppable said:
Seece said:
RolStoppable said:

Why shouldn't it?

Because it's not made by Nintendo.

Neither was Gran Turismo 4.

Yah, neither was GTA:SA.



 

M.U.G.E.N on 28 November 2010

3-4mil I think



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greenmedic88 on 28 November 2010

4-5m. Conservative estimate: 4.5m. Mostly likely more. 



leatherhat on 28 November 2010
Seece said:
RolStoppable said:
Seece said:
RolStoppable said:

Why shouldn't it?

Because it's not made by Nintendo.

Neither was Gran Turismo 4.

Yah, neither was GTA:SA.

GT4 sold 1 million second week without the benefits of holiday, if you think that GT5 won't do a million in its second week than the burden of proof is on you. 

OT- five mil 



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