agreed

I don't see how it could. Sony and MS made the PS3 and 360 so expensive and powerful, that a next gen console will hardly see an improvement from these guys. Nintendo will jump in quality, and maybe even sales, but I think Sony particularly will have hurt themselves with the PS3.

I don't see why a similar growth from 7th to 8th gen as from 6th to 7th gen should be possible. At least in terms of consoles, as I assume that is what we're speaking about.

A middle-of-the-road estimate of the sales of this generation's consoles seems to be somewhere around 
Ps3: 75 million
X360: 75 million
Wii: 120 million

That puts the 7th generation at 270 million or so. That's a roughly 35% increase over 6th generation's around 200 million sold. That's quite close to the increase that 6th gen saw over 5th gen, which was at 35-40% as well. And the 5th gen saw a roughly 100% increase over 4th gen. The 4th gen "only" saw a 25% or so increase over 3rd gen, though. And 3rd gen saw a ludicrously large increase over the ones before it.

All in all, a 35% increase isn't that major. The 7th generation didn't see a huge increase over the 6th generation. The reason for that is most likely that the financial crisis hit at the time it did. But shouldn't then - logically - that increase come when the economical situation betters?  I'd say that seems likely.

I don't see any real reasons as to why the 8th gen shouldn't be able to see 350 million or more sales. This industry has always grown, I don't see why that should stop now.

As for the handhelds, we're looking at 270 million or so for DSPsP. That's quite a huge increase over the 80-90 million of the GBA. Now, we won't see similar increases next generation, but there's no reason the 3DS shouldn't have the potential to sell 200 million. As for whether the handhelds will increase, that depends a bit on the next Sony handheld. If there is none, which currently seems possible, or it fails massively, we might see no growth or even a slight decrease.

There's no real reason as to why next gen won't be even bigger than this one for the consoles, as far as I can see.

There is still a lot of growth to come... globally, probably only about 1/6 people can afford to game in the way that the West does.

You make a good point for console growths, but what about the PS4, X720 and Wii successor do you think will push new gamers into the industry? Graphically I don't think Sony can improve over the PS3 much, by 2012 the PS3 will still be a $150 console, and I don't think Sony will make the same mistake and make the next console $600 at launch again.

I think the big step next generation will be motion controls, or some form of innovation. Nintendo will get a massive hardware upgrade too.

As for handhelds I think your point makes sence, but your example about current handhelds outselling the GBA was terrible. GBA was only on the market for 3 years remember? 80 million in 3 years is not that much less then the DS and PSP selling combined 200 million in 6 years. Actually the GBA outpaces the DS if you look at it this way, and how many people have both PSP and DS? However the market is growing, 80 million in 3 years by the GBA and 200 million this gen in 6 years is much higher then 120 million in 12 years. Average for handhelds 10mil/yr for GB/GBC -> 27 mil/yr for GBA -> 33 mil/yr for current.

In the end I agree with you, I expect the 3DS to sell 200 million, maybe even more. It completly mocks the 3D tv's with glasses experience.

I hadn't thought of the fact that this generation for the handhelds was so much longer than last generation.

However, the GBA didn't really just sell for 3 years.. For one, it launched in early-mid 2001, whereas the DS launched in end 2004 to early 2005. It sold for 3.5 years, at least. But you can call that nitpicking.

More importantly: The GBA sold 22 million after the DS launched. The GBA wasn't killed off when the next generation came along, it sold nearly 40% more than what it had sold up until the DS launched. In other words; the GBA sold 60 million in 3.5 years, or 17 million/year.

You're quite right, though, the increase isn't 200%, it's more along the lines of a doubling in terms of hardware.

Bottom line, the industry is still growing, but I wonder if Smart Phones, like the Iphone will start to impose on the handheld market. I know the handheld software division for Apple has grown. I believe in 2008 Apple had only 1% of the handheld software market, but in 2009 it grew to 5%, and it's stil growing in 2010. DS is still king holding 75% of the software market, but will it hold?

Also to be fair the DS/PSP generation of handhelds has 2 successful systems, where GBA was a stand alone. How many gamers have both handhelds, and doesn't the competition bring more attention into the handheld market?

BTW if DS manages to sell 20 million more units after the launch of the 3DS, that will bring it to 160 million. Awesome.

P.S. Should I get a Wii this holiday season for about $150 (I'm sure I'll find a deal like that) or should I wait 2 years for a Wii successor, which will likely be backward compatible. I have access to a Wii from a close friend for a couple months a year as it is, but is it worth getting my own? I ask you because your a random person, but seem educated.

Games for the masses my friend, games for the masses...

Sorry about making a double post, the site refuses to let me edit my previous one for some reason. Edit: Oh, it didn't end up being a double post. Jolly good!

It seems likely that the next Sony and Microsoft consoles will have motion controls, I agree. I think you're also right that they'll both go with some relatively cheap machines, in the 300-400 range tops. So the graphical improvement won't be that great.

There are mainly 3 sources of increase in the gamer population. The first is children that become old enough to play games, the second is people who become financially able to buy games (these people weren't previously) and the third is people who suddenly gain an interest in games.

Generally, Nintendo has always been the company that sought the most to make people start gaming, with cheaper consoles,  and children-friendly games. With the DS and Wii, they've started the search for non-gamers to start playing the "non-games", as Wii Sports, Nitendogs and such.

Microsoft and Sony have had a different approach. Their goal hasn't been to turn people into gamers, it has been to make the already existing gamers buy their machines, instead of the other companies' consoles. So far, that has mainly been capturing people as they hit their middle/late teens, and making the males 16-30 keep buying their consoles.

It won't be like that next gen, at least not completely.  I expect that in the 8th generation, Sony and Microsoft will try to do two things. Primarily, try to get the more "hardcore" gamers to buy their machine instead of the opponents' (like described above), but they're also going to try to make some of the gamers that Nintendo brought in in the 7th gen to buy the Sony/Microsoft machine instead.

In other words; they'll have their hands full just doing what they've always been doing. A very simplistic way of describing this industry is: Nintendo brings people into gaming > Nintendo no longer makes games they care about > Sony/Microsoft/Sega picks up those gamers by making/getting games they prefer.

It's not like that for everyone, of course, but I'd say that's the most common course of movement. It doesn't stay true for a lot of the people who bought a Ps1 and never owned a console before, but it does for most of the rest.

And that's what the 8th generation will look like. Sony/Microsoft will try to make the "old" (ie, people who've been here since 7th gen or before) gamers buy their machine, while Nintendo tries to get some "new" gamers.

So Nintendo will still make their standard Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong, etc, games, but they'll most likely try to do something innovative again, like the Wiimote was. I imagine they'll largely try to appeal to women more, so I'd expect more of their games to be aimed at the female audience. (Unlike pretty much all of Nintendo's Wii games, which were aimed either at males or equally much at males and females).

Shortly said, Microsoft and Sony will make games to keep the old gamers. That essentially means that they will make games to appeal to all of the 7th gen gamers, including the "casual" ones.  Nintendo will try to find a new marked to find, and the best one at the moment seems to be women of all ages, and people above 40 of both genders.

So we're most likely going to see both Microsoft and Sony make/get more "kiddy" looking games (think the Nintendo artstyle), while still making a fair bunch of realistic games. Nintendo is likely to make more graphically unimpressive games, and more "easy to pick up, but not that much depth" games.

8th gen Sony/Microsoft will be like a merge of 7th gen Nintendo and 7th gen Sony/Microsoft. 8th gen Nintendo will be 7th gen Nintendo with more games like "Wii Fit" "Mario Kart Wii" "Brain Training" "Animal Crossing" "Nintendogs", "New Super Mario Bros Wii" and such, and less games like "Super Mario Galaxy" "The Legend of Zelda: Twilight  Princess" "Metroid Prime" and those games.

The reason Nintendo made a fair bit of more "hardcore" games lately is mainly that they thought that they had won the war for the "casuals". Only when they've assured the new gamers will they in the 8th gen aim to get more of the 7th gen and before gamers.

LOL at the underlined. The way you phrased that sentance sounds exactly the same way I would, it's a little scary.

I agree about Nintendo appealing more to female gamers next generation, the Wii largely controls that audience current;y, and there are many women and girls who have yet to get into gaming. Most women I'm sure have also heard of key nintendo franchises, but are probably less aware of MS and Sony brands, except for the mega hits because of hearsay from the guys talking about it. However if women were to get into gaming, it would be far more likely for them to start with Nintendo, and with just as many women in the world and men, that could double the market.

I also only vaguely agree with your Nintendo for new gamers, MS/Sony for old gamers, but I'm not 100% sure it will go just that way. Nintendo has always appealed to new gamers, but if your old enough to remember, that wasn't always their goal. Back in the NES, SNES, N64 days, Nintendo wanted to make the "best" system. The system with the best graphics, and best quality software lineup. The NES and SNES boomed because at that time, you had to be pretty techy to play games, or just be a kid interested in a cool toy.

Either way, Nintendo simply aimed to please all. Back then there were no M rated games, and a good quality game was often a game that appealed to everyone. These were just games after all, nothing at all like a movie, they were designed like current handheld games, to keep people entertained for a period of time, thats all. Some did have a great story, SNES RPG's are among my favorite, but the best selling games were simply the most addictive, and that is what sold (Super Mario, Donkey Kong, Street Fighter, etc).

Nintendo has changed significantly since then. Back in those days it was innovation through software, and graphics pushing hardware, and it stayed that way right up until the Wii. However Nintendo noticed that N64 and GCN hardware sales were far inferior to Sony, yet software sales remained high (best selling N64 games sold as well or better then best selling PS1 games). So with the DS and the Wii, Nintendo started to bring innovation on the hardware side.

Sony IMO is what brought true casual gamers into the gaming market. Remember the PS1 was also a CD player, and Music was still a bigger entertainment industry then gaming. Thus a perfect way to attract new gamers, people can get a CD player, and play games at the same time too. This is one reason why the Playstation brand took off.

What Sony did with the PS1-PS3 was try to boost both Music/Movie sales (CD player/DVD Player/Blu-Ray player) and gaming sales. They have always tried to bundle the two together, and by doing this they attracted most of the new gamers in the last 2 generations (not the current). This is one big reason why Gaming has surpassed Music and Movies in terms of popular electronic media.

However, competition brings change, and Nintendo has adapted to the stronger competition. They can't develop a system more graphically capable console then Sony or MS because of the bigger pockets of those two companies, and Nintendo doesn't benefit from bundling new media devices with their games like Sony. Also the gaming industry has become larger then Music and Movies now, so that wouldn't help much either.

This is why Nintendo made the Wii the way it is. Nintendo software always did well because it was new, innovative, and yet a quality product. Nintendo also has always stuck with the "games for everyone" philosophy, and you have played a lot of Nintendo games you would also know that they have always loved to fill them with puzzles. They have always wanted to improve peoples problem solving skills, and to Nintendo, that is what a game should be, a big puzzle. To Nintendo, one way to attact new gamers was simply making pure puzzle games (Brain Age, Picross, Planet Puzzle League, etc), and I think this is how it will attract the female gaming audience.

Anyway I could go on, but Nintendo has ALWAYS cared about their hardcore audience as well. This is why the best games each generation were often on Nintendo consoles. Wii still has DKCR, Super Smash Vros Brawl, Mario Kart Wii, Metroid Prime 3, Kirby, Fire Emblem, etc. Nintendo just went through a rough patch in the last 2 generations of gaming, so they are playing it a lot safer on the software front. This is why Nintendo has been quick to serve out many successful Wii branded games, along with sequels to popular older franchises. New Super Mario Bros, Donkey Kong, Zelda, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Super Mario Galaxy, all great games.

So in the end, I actually disagree with you. Writing this, I got to review Nintendo's past history, and although I agree the new Nintendo will be an innovative console which will bring in lots of new gamers (female in particular), I don't think they purely focus on new gamer sales. They make products to sell, they are a buisness after all, so they have to balance satisfying old gamers and attracting new ones at the same time. The Wii saw a lot of great games for the hardcore early on as well as now, it's just they don't make as many games for the "hardcore" audience as MS and Sony get on their platformers because Nintendo is only 1 company, where MS and Sony have many different software developers making games for them.

Anyway I think MS wants to be like this in the end. They established themselves by appealing to the hardcore audience, but I know they want to expand. Your going to see more Rare based games next generation, so expect a proper Banjo Kazooie platformer, and possibly a kart racer. They will not be as innovative as Nintendo, but given another generation who knows. Competition brings change.

As for Sony, I bet they will follow the same formula. There is no denying the success of the Wii and the PS2, and Sony has no new media device to bundle the PS4 with.

So all I can say for sure is, everyone is going to go for the new gamers, as well as the old. Chances are 8th generation consoles will be cheaper at launch then current gen consoles, and all of them will incorporate some form of motion controls. Nintendo will still attract the old gamers with quality Mario, Metroid and Zelda titles, while MS and Sony will do it with GTA, Forza/GT, CoD, and the next big franchise.

Nintendo will probably also be the only successful manufacturer to attract female gamers, and will likely still remain the "casual" console, the system people get when they just want to play some games now and then. Just like iPod is the generic MP3 player for those who just want to listen to music now and then.