Biggest gen ever or will every gen outdo the last?

[Michael-5]

Pineapple said:

I don't see why a similar growth from 7th to 8th gen as from 6th to 7th gen should be possible. At least in terms of consoles, as I assume that is what we're speaking about.

A middle-of-the-road estimate of the sales of this generation's consoles seems to be somewhere around 
Ps3: 75 million
X360: 75 million
Wii: 120 million

That puts the 7th generation at 270 million or so. That's a roughly 35% increase over 6th generation's around 200 million sold. That's quite close to the increase that 6th gen saw over 5th gen, which was at 35-40% as well. And the 5th gen saw a roughly 100% increase over 4th gen. The 4th gen "only" saw a 25% or so increase over 3rd gen, though. And 3rd gen saw a ludicrously large increase over the ones before it.

All in all, a 35% increase isn't that major. The 7th generation didn't see a huge increase over the 6th generation. The reason for that is most likely that the financial crisis hit at the time it did. But shouldn't then - logically - that increase come when the economical situation betters?  I'd say that seems likely.

I don't see any real reasons as to why the 8th gen shouldn't be able to see 350 million or more sales. This industry has always grown, I don't see why that should stop now.

As for the handhelds, we're looking at 270 million or so for DSPsP. That's quite a huge increase over the 80-90 million of the GBA. Now, we won't see similar increases next generation, but there's no reason the 3DS shouldn't have the potential to sell 200 million. As for whether the handhelds will increase, that depends a bit on the next Sony handheld. If there is none, which currently seems possible, or it fails massively, we might see no growth or even a slight decrease.

There's no real reason as to why next gen won't be even bigger than this one for the consoles, as far as I can see.

You make a good point for console growths, but what about the PS4, X720 and Wii successor do you think will push new gamers into the industry? Graphically I don't think Sony can improve over the PS3 much, by 2012 the PS3 will still be a $150 console, and I don't think Sony will make the same mistake and make the next console $600 at launch again.

I think the big step next generation will be motion controls, or some form of innovation. Nintendo will get a massive hardware upgrade too.

As for handhelds I think your point makes sence, but your example about current handhelds outselling the GBA was terrible. GBA was only on the market for 3 years remember? 80 million in 3 years is not that much less then the DS and PSP selling combined 200 million in 6 years. Actually the GBA outpaces the DS if you look at it this way, and how many people have both PSP and DS? However the market is growing, 80 million in 3 years by the GBA and 200 million this gen in 6 years is much higher then 120 million in 12 years. Average for handhelds 10mil/yr for GB/GBC -> 27 mil/yr for GBA -> 33 mil/yr for current.

In the end I agree with you, I expect the 3DS to sell 200 million, maybe even more. It completly mocks the 3D tv's with glasses experience.