This covers the 19 weeks ending Jan 1 (2010), Jan 2 (2009), Jan 3 (2008). The last nine weeks (Nov-Dec) are weeks impacted by seasonality, while the first ten weeks are not.

                                          Late Summer / Early Fall                    Late Fall / Winter            Low to Low Level  Lift

Wii Low 08'                              249,000                                              557,000                              x2.24

PS3 Low 08'                             106,000                                              203,000                              x1.92

X360 Low 08'                           104,000                                             282,000                               x2.71 (price cut)

Wii Low 09'                              149,000                                              469,000                              x3.15 (price cut)

PS3 Low 09'                              159,000                                             322,000                              x2.02 (price cut/slim)  

X360 Low 09'                           127,000                                              311,000                             x2.45

Wii Low 10'                               136,000                                             327,000                             x2.40

PS3 Low 10'                              151,000                                              304,000                            x2.01

X360 Low 10'                            162,000                                             334,000                            x2.06

                                                Late Summer / Early Fall                    Late Fall / Winter         High to High Level  Lift

Wii High 08'                             478,000                                                 1,648,000                           x3.45

PS3 High 08'                            198,000                                                  537,000                              x2.71

X360 High 08'                          227,000                                                 909,000                               x4.00  (price cut)

Wii High 09'                             396,000                                                 1,984,000                           x5.01  (price cut)                   

PS3 High 09'                            596,000                                                 1,010,000                           x1.69  (price cut/slim)

X360 High 09'                         193,000                                                   746,000                             x3.87

Wii High 10'                            239,000                                                    ????

PS3 High 10'                           276,000                                                     ????

X360 High 10'                        268,000                                                     ????

I'm inclined to believe in 2010, that with more genres covered than last year, with Wii selling at $200 or less, with wide availability, new bundles,  the Wii lift from pre-holiday peak to peak holiday might be astronomical - on the order of 6-7 fold. PS3 should see a much higher peak to peak growth lift as well, not because of Move, but simply because the Slim effect effectively made it Christmas in September for many, preventing a normal 3-5 fold lift. X360, which actually had a Slim effect this year (all be it earlier) and Halo in the non-holiday period, should see peak growth much lower than last year, probably closer to the order of three fold.

Great analysis

Great double post

Great reply

In my opinion the fact that the Wii now has competition in demographics it had to itself in previous years pretty much changes everything and makes using older numbers almost useless.

For the Wii to have some kind of November/December miracle really comes down to 2 things, a price cut or relying on the strength of a few key new games.  Almost all of their old evergreen titles have either reached the saturation point or face stiff competition that nullifies their impact.

Two of those new titles, Goldeneye and Kirby's Epic Yarn, have already failed to have the kind of impact needed so the burden is getting heavier for Donkey Kong Country Returns and Disney's Epic Mickey to be massive hits or for New Super Mari Bros, Wii to see some kind of massive resurgence in sales.

I personally think the Wii will see a massive drop in sales in both November and December compared to last year.

As a followup I just wanted to say that I'm having second thoughts about the Wii not having a large resurgence in sales for November/December.  Having just looked at the new Chart Track numbers and seeing the Wii coming back to life it looks like it will have a major sales boost, likely more than the other two.  Add to that the fact that I was expecting more from Kinect (its games are still charting and it's moving consoles but so far it doesn't seem to be having any significant impact on the Wii).

I simply don't understand your logic for why PS3 will have a much higher peak to peak growth this holiday than the 360 will. That makes absolutely no sense to me. I think your statement is trying to say that the PS3's slim effect was somehow delayed until this Christmas??? Your reasoning for it is very confusing to me ("but simply because the Slim effect effectively made it Christmas in September for many, preventing a normal 3-5 fold lift"????).

If anything, the 360 should have a similar peak to peak multiplier as PS3 due to the resounding success of Kinect thus far.

BTW, I think Wii sales are going to have a huge plummet this Holiday compared to last year. I think expecting a 6x to 7x peak to peak multiple for Wii is expecting way too much. It is hard for me to believe that the huge year over year sales decreases we have been seeing from Wii the past few months will just disappear and reverse these last six weeks.

I'm saying that in 2009, PS3 lifted less than the other consoles because Slim made alot of people buy earlier than they would have. So in 2010, PS3 will have a far larger seasonal lift. X360 will have a slightly smaller seasonal lift in 2010 than in 2009 with the Slim (as with PS3 - encouraging early year purchasing) offset by Kinect.

Ahh, ok, gotcha. So you are just saying that you think PS3's multiplier will be greater than 1.69 this year, which I agree with and that the 360's will be smaller than the x3.87 from last year, which I am not sure I agree with. I think we will see a week of 1M for 360 due in large part to the success of Kinect.