Okay I am here...

Why no Longcat? Is Shortcat and Tacgnol okay?

I dont recall many people being lynched because they were associated with a mislynch.   Its a threat that is constantly thrown out there but never acted upon. 

And you cant always blame the player getting lynched because the town was misinformed or refused to listen to him.  Thats just a cop out to make the players who forced the mislynch to make them feel good about themselves, and it's utter BS.   It some cases yeah, the player should have done more to stop it from happening, but most cases its the other way. 

How is that?

This is DogOfWar_3ever: 

OK, being serious. 
I presume he's talking about the way the L-numbers work out under the assumption that there will be exactly one nightkill every night.  And it's better for the town to have odd numbers going into the endgame. 

I think Mafia are not in favour of day 1 lynches because if they mislynch without any possible evidence they would get a target real fast. So I believe Mafia don't want to randomly vote and let someine die unless they find somekind of mistake in the persons statements. Also it is very important to look at a person voting preferneces. I fsuddently someone who always was for a day 1 lynch does not want to lynch there is something suspicious about him.

I'm not making either of those points.

I'm saying that mislynches don't just happen based on random voting. There needs to be a push. Mafia will seldom push for a (mis)lynch because they don't want to be affiliated with that action. Sure, nobody really gets lynched from reference to a mislynch, but it does provide evidence toward a future lynch. A townie cannot be lynched randomly..it can only come from wagoning. So random votes have no relevance to scumminess. Bandwagoning is a far more accurate tell.

To address your other question:

Say there are 13 townies and 4 mafia.

If we were to mislynch every single day, and follow it with a night kill every day, then in on day 5 we would have to get one mafia lynched to stay in the game. If there were 12 townies, we would need to lynch one mafia by day 4, and if there were 14 townies, we would still need a mafia lynch by day 5.

To show it in a data plot:

12 townies, 4 mafia:  mafia wins by night 4 (from kill)
13 townies, 4 mafia: mafia wins by night 5 (from lynch)
14 townies, 4 mafia: mafia wins by night 5 (from kill)

Conversely, if we don't lynch anyone on first day:

12 townies, 4 mafia: mafia wins by day 5 (from lynch)
13 townies, 4 mafia: mafia wins by night 5 (from kill)
14 townies, 4 mafia: mafia wins by day 6 (from lynch)

So you see, by comparing day 1 lynch, and day 1 no lynch for 13 townies, game ends at the same time irregardless.

I agree I'm not 100% correct, but Scum want the night because they can chat and night kill and all that great stuff while the town sits and waits. Yes, they want mislynches, but would be happy with continued no lynches too.

However, random lynches aren't so random. There are a set of people who know who is working with them and other factors. A "random" day 1 lynch will always be better than a no-lynch day one in my opinion, as we are left with no information day 2 and might as well have started with one less pro-town person if no lynch is performed. While we may be down a townie, it is a risk worth taking as we gain information or even better yet, might just nab a scum.

Also, having read your later reply, while I can I agree that you aren't going to get direct information from a mislynch (unless someone claims cop and then gets it wrong) I have gleaned very useful information from vote histories to the point where I've picked every scum in the game only to get killed off later. I even directly remember having a PM convo with Hatmoza after the fact. Not saying it will happen again, but mislynches can be very bad for scum and scum should be very happy to go into night 1 with a no-lynch as it is one less day worth of information to use against them.

Vote: TruckoSaurus

I'm going to get you this time you Canadian! >:D

Never! Canadians rule.. want proof?

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