@kvh22000, i got 6 original style DS's then replaced them this year with DSLites. I also have 47 games now, 39 are 100% completed!

I dont understand why you need six of them. please explain.

 And I'm sure some will, but those of us who have half a brain know that ALL software and hardware sales are sluggish in the summer months. The developers themselves even say this, and they aim all their big hits at the space either behind or in front of this time of "drought", so to speak.

If someone uses that as an argument, they're making asses of themselves, and people will tell them so!

For me, a slowdown in sales would be if it starts selling less after new years than it did before (aug-oct, possibly first half of nov) by 10-20% or more, which would be significant. 

It might have been more useful (and more proper) had Screen Digest used a bar graph. After all, it appears to try to be capturing annual sales to project console lifetime sales (at least until 2011).

By doing that, the data would be less open to being misinterpreted. There would be no discussion about how sales are suddenly going to tick up in a few weeks or the much more mundane (but very relevant) whehter 07 means year end, year beginning, or year mid-point arguement.

Also, if you note, SD does NOT have PS3 outselling Wii lifetime, it has it ALMOST catching it lifetime (through 2011). Based on the trends, it might pass it in 2012.

Finally, this is not that differnt than another analysis I saw which had the Wii winning the hardware battle and Sony winning the software battle as it finished a close second with a higher attach rate. While I cannot remember the source, it was the only analysis that predicted the Wii selling like hotcakes upon launch, so it at least got that right.

The whole point is that analysts (1) have their own previous predictions to safefguard and (2) don't know much more than we do, but get paid for giving their opinions.

Mike from Morgantown

Remember -- All you need to be a consutant is 50 miles from home with a briefcase.

Hmm it may not look very likely now, but I think there is a good possibility. 360/PS3 have almost the same games: you could call them a platform. Together they outsell the Wii by a nice margin. I don't think this will change. They will also have a much more critical acclaimed library. The Wii is on its own here and most important Nintendo franchises will be through when Smash has been released. There are one or two "defectors" like Monster Hunter but third-party support is very lackluster and this doesn't seem to change in the next year(s).

So we have three possibilities:

1. The Wii opens up a huge new casual gamer market like the DS and outsells 360+PS3.

2. 360+PS3 continue to outsell the Wii and 360 and PS3 continue to carve up the market 50/50 (Perhaps divided into US(360) and Rest(PS3)

3. 360+PS3 continue to outsell the Wii and the PS3 crushes the 360 (and with this outsells the Wii)

I think all three possibilities are equally probable. We have seen that the PS3 needed a 400$ price and some games to reach 360 level. Let's see what some great exclusives can do. In my opinion once the PS3 enters the first 300$ and then 200$ mark(perhaps with a redesign) the Wii will go down (or they need to bring the Wii2) Let's see.

Regardless of trends, though; Nintendo will likely be the first to launch come next generation!

For those who believe that this is likely, here is a rough graph showing monthly sales for this to happen

 Highly highly unlikely right now. Unless the predictions of the HD market suddenly causing people to want to buy the other systems over the Wii come true, there is no reason to believe this. Based on current data, there is no reason to believe HD gaming is a defining factor in console sales right now. So there is really no reason to suspect that Nintendo will launch its next system first.

 Actually I can do one better than that as well. The Wii was second/third on the market this time around despite the fact that the Gamecube came in third last generation. Nintendo is not the type to jump early to get complete market domination because they don't need to dominate the market to turn a profit. I am certain they want it as bad as everyone else in the race, but they do not need it as badly to make tons of cash. I would say they are a good candidate for being the last out the gates again.

 Or was that sarcasm? Whatever. It needed to be said to someone on the forums I am certain. 

@white devil

Thanks for the effort. Now the prediciton looks even weirder than I first thought.

Has any game system in history suddenly had a 400% sales spike after the Christmas holidays ended and then kept that same momentum for 4 more years?