Hmm it may not look very likely now, but I think there is a good possibility. 360/PS3 have almost the same games: you could call them a platform. Together they outsell the Wii by a nice margin. I don't think this will change. They will also have a much more critical acclaimed library. The Wii is on its own here and most important Nintendo franchises will be through when Smash has been released. There are one or two "defectors" like Monster Hunter but third-party support is very lackluster and this doesn't seem to change in the next year(s).
So we have three possibilities:
1. The Wii opens up a huge new casual gamer market like the DS and outsells 360+PS3.
2. 360+PS3 continue to outsell the Wii and 360 and PS3 continue to carve up the market 50/50 (Perhaps divided into US(360) and Rest(PS3)
3. 360+PS3 continue to outsell the Wii and the PS3 crushes the 360 (and with this outsells the Wii)
I think all three possibilities are equally probable. We have seen that the PS3 needed a 400$ price and some games to reach 360 level. Let's see what some great exclusives can do. In my opinion once the PS3 enters the first 300$ and then 200$ mark(perhaps with a redesign) the Wii will go down (or they need to bring the Wii2) Let's see.
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