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Forums - Sales - Screen Digest still believes the PS3 will take the worldwide lead

Mummelmann on 12 December 2007
Gnizmo said:
Mummelmann said:
ClaudeLv250 said:
Someone really needs to make the "Wii will stop selling in the middle of 2008" crow eating fiesta thread in anticipation, because that 'argument' is getting tossed around these boards a little too much lately to let people get away with such bold and unsupported statements. For a sales site that has to be one of the worst arguments I've seen here, and yet its clung to so tightly by a lot of people for no real reason at all.

There are actually very few who have that belief, but those who do are very loud about it. There are far more users who believe that the Wii will sell 500 million lifetime, which is an even stranger stance on a sales site.

Thinking that a console can do over half a billion is equally bold and unsupported, but it's okay on Vgchartz, shows just how much people here love Nintendo. I personally love this site, but these insane predictions are getting tedious now.


There are maybe 5 users total who believe that the Wii will sell 500 million lifetime. Those 5 users just tend to be extremely vocal, and get mixed in with people saying the Wii will be a huge success. I would say there are an equal number of people who think the PS3 will flip around and crush the opposition when the Wii stops selling because of reason Z. I do have to agree with you though that the outlandish predictions are getting old. I think it is a side effect of becoming a popular gaming site and attracting fanboys who like to scream from the rooftops that their console is the best.


True, but John Lucas is a hero in here for some reason, and a lot more than 5 users believe his predictions as far as I've understood. Rooting for your favourite console is one thing, but I prefer to do it with my head below the clouds...

I don't think the Wii will STOP selling, that'd be sheer folly, I do however think that the sales will slow down considerably after a while.



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Faxanadu on 12 December 2007

@Mummelmann: But John only predicted 240 million, right?



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XCosMarX on 12 December 2007

Well :S they are just predictions... we can't get mad at them for guessing. maybe they see something that we don't? doubt it.... anyway you can't predict the future, who knows if this could happen or not O_O



Mummelmann on 12 December 2007
Faxanadu said:
@Mummelmann: But John only predicted 240 million, right?

 Minimum, 500 million topmost. Rather sweeping numbers I must say. Avinash said 750 million if Wii launched in China and Inida... No one can tell me there's no humor on Vgchartz with these kind of predictions!



Mummelmann on 12 December 2007
XCosMarX said:
Well :S they are just predictions... we can't get mad at them for guessing. maybe they see something that we don't? doubt it.... anyway you can't predict the future, who knows if this could happen or not O_O

No one can predict the future, true. But most people have the ability to think rationally and see limitations. The predictions themselves don't bother me one way or the other, but the fact that so many choose to support them, does. It must feel great to be a Nintendo fan now after the horrible performance of the N64 and the Gamecube, but a little modesty never killed anyone... That's all I'm saying!



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Timmah! on 12 December 2007
Bodhesatva said:

Except now, they expect the crossover to occur in 2011.

http://economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10251308

This expects a strong uptake in PS3 sales, but is still considerably less optimistic than their previous forecasts for the system. For those who don't remember, Screen Digest made predictions back in February:

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=12890


In the spirit of this article, I now declare the world to be flat (as shown by the picture below) and the sun to be a giant Beach Ball circling the flat earth.

Fig1: Picture of the earth from space.

Fig2: Giant Beach Ball (The Sun)

 Clearly you can see I'm right.



Timmah! on 12 December 2007

Nevermind, I just did an analysis on the chart you posted that was from the OLD article. But they're still crazy.



Nighteyes_1981 on 12 December 2007
RolStoppable said:
Nighteyes_1981 said:
Here's the thing that cracks me up about all these forcasts and console comparisons. For the past 20 years that I've been a gamer, these are the things that I've noticed:
1) The winner of each console generation so far has typically been the least powerful of the available systems.
2) The winner of each console generation has traditionally been the least expensive system.
3) Exlusivity has played a major part in each console victory, though exlusivity is happens less and less these days. Soon, for the most part, the only exlusive titles will be first and second party.


1) Out of the relevant consoles in each generation there is one exception: the SNES.
2) I am not sure how all the systems were priced, but there's also one exception for sure: the GC.
3) Indeed, exclusive games were important. I don't agree with the second part of your statement though. Due to the differences in specs and more important the controller, the Wii will get a lot of exclusive games.

I think power of the winning system (usually the weakest) and price are merely a coincidence throughout the generations. There are two better benchmarks why a system wins/won:

1) Size of game library: How many games are available?
2) Variety in game library: How many different kinds of games are available in good numbers?

If you apply these two factors to the winning systems, whether they have been consoles or portables, you will see they perfectly fit.

You'll notice I never said 'all' of the winners for 1 and 2.  I realize there are exceptions.  I just didn't feel like digging into the stats for examples heh.  For 3 I didn't say exclusive games would go away completely, but that for the most part they wouldn't exist.  I should clarify that by saying I'm reffering to 'AAA' titles here.  Like Metal Gear and Final Fantasy for example.  Not things like 'Carnival Games'.  I imagine that AAA titles will still be multi-platform, but with added wiimote functionality.  Just because the Wii has the ideal FPS control scheme doesn't mean you shouldn't release it for the Xbox as well and deny yourself sales.

 As to your points:  The size and variety of the game library has made a difference, and I almost included that.  However I decided to keep the list short and I was mostly making points related to those the experts keep bringing up.



I know you believe you understand what you think I said but I don't think you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.

Timmah! on 12 December 2007

So what they're saying is, when 2007 hits, PS3 will magically shoot to 1.5 Million per month and stay there, while the Wii will somehow fall to an average of 1.15 Million per month even though supply of 1.8 Million per month can't meet demand. Got it.



Nick on 12 December 2007
breadie said:
maybe the analysis was funded by Sony, like SMG review... haha

I was actually thinking the same thing. I wouldn't find it surprising if it were true.



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