Seece said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Seece said:
The Ghost of RubangB said:
Whoa, people actually think Kinect Adventures will outsell Wii Sports Resort and/or Wii Fit Plus? What kind of bizarro thread is this?
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Wow another unconstructive post, why don't you tell us why it won't? Explain how Kinect is going to come off the back of a 5 million selling holiday and basically flop? In case you didn't know, Kinect Adventures is bundled.
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Kinect hasn't sold 5 million yet.
True it isn't sold yet, but it's off to a great start and it's hard to see how it's not going to pass at least 4 million this year.
That's just how many Microsoft plans to ship
Which could very well be raised
but they could be stuffing the channel, which they've been known to do.
Since when? They certainly don't stuff the channel before christmas.
But either way, even if they sell 5 million this holiday season, and the sales don't completely die off in January, I don't think Kinect will sell 20 million, even if it switches bundles and gets price cuts. The only peripherals that topped 20 million are the Balance Board, the Wii Motion Plus, and even though it was purely cosmetic, the Wii Wheel.
Awful comparisons, Kinect is in a different league to those, it's not even being viewed or treated as a peripheral, and that's not what the casual audience will think when they want to buy it. The Balance board as basically one focus, Wii fit. The Wii wheel, Mario Kart, Motion plus .. is even remotely a big deal however much it's sold. I've never seen any massive buzz for it or casuals going crazy over it 0_o
I don't see Kinect having the same word of mouth chain reaction as those, because I don't see any of Kinect's launch titles having the same global appeal as Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports Resort, or Mario Kart Wii.
Why? They're very casual centrict games, put a casual in front of Wii fit and YourShape ... or Just Dance and Dance Central .. you tell me what is going to impress them most. Those Wii games will sell the most due to the userbase, but there is no denieing the Kinect offerings are more impressive. For THOSE types of games, it's as natural as you can get.
The hype is really good so far, but I think we should wait... at least a month... before we start making 20 million predictions.
I mean... only 12 games have sold 20 million copies on a single platform.
They're all published by Nintendo.
And only 5 of those happened in the last decade.
Kinect Adventures has been out for a few days, and people are predicting it will outsell San Andreas on the PS2, which at 18.53 million sales is the best-selling single-platform non-Nintendo game.
It's not Kinect Adventures that is the overall selling point, it's Kinect itself.
I think the burden of proof is on THEM to explain why the game will sell that much to a smaller userbase and without being part of a huge franchise that had been growing for a few games in a row and had much more media attention (Hot Coffee, etc.). I don't have to believe it or explain why I don't believe it. In a quarter century of gaming history only one company has been able to top 20 million on a single platform. I don't see Kinect Adventures being the game to change that.
Oh dear, noone else could ever possibly top 20 million other than Nintendo, I kinda get the feeling you feel threatened or possibly offended by the idea Kinect Adventures could do it. As for me having to explain how I think it'll do it.
Treating Kinect as a peripheral is the completely wrong way to look at it, as it's appealing to a completely new audience, it's tapping into that 100 million eventual Wii userbase and whether you like it or not, it's right up their street, it's new and fresh, and it's more impressive than Wii.
To think the hype will die down after the holidays, is exactly what the Wii audience faced for years. It was the result of many people just baffled something like the Wii could actually sell and sell and sell. And yet here you are, completely refusing to believe Kinect is going to go on and potentially get bigger and better next holiday (Kinect at $99 will SELL)
If you think MS are in this for one good holiday of sales then a massive drop off you're going to be very much dissapointed.
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1) Microsoft has had quarters where they barely shipped any 360 units, but they kept selling them. This is due to either intentionally stuffing the channel in the previous quarter, or accidentally stuffing the channel because they couldn't sell as many as they wanted to. Either way, the channel was stuffed and there were tons of units sitting on shelves so they could brag about their shipped numbers to their investors.
Re: "there is no denieing the Kinect offerings are more impressive. For THOSE types of games, it's as natural as you can get."
2) Your Shape can't tell you how much you weigh or how good/bad your posture and balance are. Wii Fit has the advantage there. And it's cheaper.
3) Dance Central doesn't have 4 player multiplayer. Just Dance has the advantage there. Personally, I think Dance Central is more fun due to the dance lessons, the dance moves, and the presentation. But both games are just about groups partying all over the living room, and Just Dance has more multiplayer modes, more players at once, and duet songs where you do different dance moves together, which I thought was the most fun mode of any dance game out so far. And it's cheaper.
4) I'm not predicting a flop or a massive drop off in sales. I'm just predicting that it won't sell 20 million. I will update my prediction in January if necessary, after I see how Kinect can sell outside of the holidays. However, predicting that something will sell less than 20 million isn't crazy or weird or fanboyish at all. In fact, unless you're talking about Nintendo, you can predict every game ever made will sell less than 20 million and have a 100% success rate. I think those are good odds. I'll wait until January to make any other predictions. November 15th is not the time to predict 20 million.
5) In a month or two, it will be interesting to compare weekly sales of Kinect Adventures, Wii Sports Resort, and Wii Fit Plus, to see if Kinect follows a similar sales pattern to the Balance Board or the Motion Plus. Same with Sports Champions. I want to wait for the first 10 weeks of sales for all of them.
