I really didn't want to touch this thread with a 40 foot pole but I'm glad I did.

Interesting read so far.  Keep it up. :)

I think the problem here is people not opening their minds enough. What if Nintendo comes up with something drastically different like they did with Wii. I have been saying for years now, since Wii's release really, that Nintendo has set up their next console nicely through this controller. And if they do what I think they are going to do, then this whole topic, will be ripped apart. The problem with thee original post is that it does not take creativity into account. It is like the creator believe Nintendo will make a console that is just like the current one, but updated. What if Nintendo takes things in a different direction entirely?

Let me say one thing.

We need to make a distinction between what we want and what the market wants...

pretty much this. Creativity plays a big role on the market. What if people become bored by just upgraded consoles? What if they were seeking for real innovation, like Wii did with motion controls or 3DS with glasses free 3D effect?

They don't seem to be getting bored with updated games. Do you know what happens to most innovations? They go on those stupid TV shows with 5 easy payments and then get thrown in the closet never to be used again 2 weeks after the last payment. Most people just want to play games. Do you want to know the important innovations in TV over the last 50 years?

1. IR remote control adoption

2. VCR

3. Cable / pay TV 

Now you can argue about innovation but if say Microsoft or Sony brings out an itterative product and beats them then all you'll hear about is how Nintendo innovated themselves to death. They will be held up as an important lesson about over innovating.

Here is the difference between those predicting 3DS domination and what you're doing:

We actually know what the 3DS will be like, and have certain hints about what the PSP2 will be like. We know everything we need to know about the 3DS itself, while we know nothing about the Wii's successor.

All predictions are like throwing darts with your eyes closed. With all available information necessary, a person simply looks at the dart board, memorizes where it is, closes their eyes, and flings. You miss a lot, but if you're really good you can bulls-eye anyway.

People predicting the success and domination of the 3DS are not quite doing this. They are walking in blindfolded, and someone tells them the position of the dart board - how far away it is, its height, its facing. A truly good darts player can still manage to hit the board, though hitting the bulls-eye is almost unthinkable.

But you. You. You don't know anything about the Wii's successor, and you don't know anything about the competition it's going to have. You don't even know how many things it's going to be competing with.

You are walking blindfolded into a room of darkness, where no lights have ever been hung. The door is sealed behind you and the cracks filled with beeswax, so darkness is preserved. You are alone in the room, just you, the single dart in your hand, and the dart board. Only you don't know where the dart board is - it was affixed millenia ago by a blind artisan with a very loose interpretation of the game of darts. It could be on the floor, or the ceiling, or on the door. It could be the size of half the room, or it could be the size of the eye of a needle. You don't know. All you know is that it exists. More, you have to throw the dart and try to hit it.

With these odds against you, you give yourself a 50% chance of success.

This is a ridiculous notion.

There is one game that follows the values you outlined in the top 10 software sales this gen. One. The whole list, the entire top 50, is like a Nintendo party with sprinkled in core games. Pretending that Nintendo software doesn't have the power to move is ridiculous.

Why would Nintendo need a game to sell that much in one day? Nintendogs has outsold every Call of Duty ever, and I don't think it sold one tenth that in all of its combined launches.

I'm not sure what you're trying to get at. Nintendo games appeal to more than just 8-year-olds - it's the biggest part of why so many of their games (like Brain Age and New Super Mario) sell so well.

Thats a cool analogy. Are you wishing to become a writer?

Anyway in all fairness I have to propose a better one.

Its a three way prisoners dillemma. You have to predict the actions of not two but three parties but you lack information on what exactly each party has been offered by the police constable and it isn't clear what the goals of each party is to begin with. Furthermore the only information you have on the prisoners isn't up to date with the past two years and what they did in that time. So whilst it is possible to get it right theres too little information and a complex interplay to consider.

...Yeah, I do want to be a writer.

I think your analogy is too complicated; Killana1a isn't actually predicting anything concernign Sony and Microsoft, just whether or not Nintendo will be in first place. Even knowing everything that Microsoft and Sony will do oesn't guarantee success, of course.

More, your scenario presents binary outcomes: either each prisoner goes to the constable and betrays you, or not. Sony and Microsoft might do a jillion things. The prisoner's dilemma only really works if you include the possibility of the getting up, throttling the constable, blowing out the side of the prison with a small bomb, and fleeing into the night to wreck havoc.

Totally agree, I had a lot of fun reading it and this thread. Speaking of which, when can I order my 3DS....the king of next generation.