Killiana1a said:
Why not? Nintendo fans are predicting the world-wide domination of Nintendo with the 3DS. I figured I might as well bite back because all this Nintendo koombyeyah with the Wii, while conveniently forgetting about the N64 and Gamecube has me feeling pretty brave and in a Devil's Advocate type of mood. Responses are as expected. Some ad hominem, a few completely tearing apart my argument, and many just plain referencing the Wii as if the next Nintendo console will follow the same exact success lines of the Wii. Some unexpected, some expected and all original. I appreciate the feedback positive or negative. I might look stupid in a few years or others may not want to see me come around crowing when I am right. I figure it is a 50/50 shot at this point and I am confident looking at the 2009 and 2010 numbers for Nintendo in comparison to 2008 and earlier. Expectations in 2010 are a lot different than they were in 2006. By the time the next generation arrives, it is possible that all which made the Wii successful will become so commonplace between Move, Kinect and Wii that Nintendo may not even know how to find another Blue Pond if they decide the Blue Ocean is crowded with Sony and Microsoft. Furthermore, I have a strong enough ego to be wrong and come again. I have been wrong many times before, I will be wrong many times again. Everyone fails, but it is how you respond to failure which determines your character. I hope I am wrong in this case, but I will sit back and smile smugly if I am right. Time will tell. |
Here is the difference between those predicting 3DS domination and what you're doing:
We actually know what the 3DS will be like, and have certain hints about what the PSP2 will be like. We know everything we need to know about the 3DS itself, while we know nothing about the Wii's successor.
All predictions are like throwing darts with your eyes closed. With all available information necessary, a person simply looks at the dart board, memorizes where it is, closes their eyes, and flings. You miss a lot, but if you're really good you can bulls-eye anyway.
People predicting the success and domination of the 3DS are not quite doing this. They are walking in blindfolded, and someone tells them the position of the dart board - how far away it is, its height, its facing. A truly good darts player can still manage to hit the board, though hitting the bulls-eye is almost unthinkable.
But you. You. You don't know anything about the Wii's successor, and you don't know anything about the competition it's going to have. You don't even know how many things it's going to be competing with.
You are walking blindfolded into a room of darkness, where no lights have ever been hung. The door is sealed behind you and the cracks filled with beeswax, so darkness is preserved. You are alone in the room, just you, the single dart in your hand, and the dart board. Only you don't know where the dart board is - it was affixed millenia ago by a blind artisan with a very loose interpretation of the game of darts. It could be on the floor, or the ceiling, or on the door. It could be the size of half the room, or it could be the size of the eye of a needle. You don't know. All you know is that it exists. More, you have to throw the dart and try to hit it.
With these odds against you, you give yourself a 50% chance of success.
This is a ridiculous notion.
