Eh, you have this backwards... 3rd parties would definitely embrace a 360/PS3 spec-level Wii 2 sooner, as it would make for another platform for them to port their HD games too.  It'd enlarge that targeted "HD userbase", for 3rd parties that means more users and spread risk.  

It'd also put MS and Sony in a tough spot, as they'd simultaneously have pressure to launch new systems (since Nintendo just did) but 3rd parties will be pressuring them to wait (as HD multiplatform R&D is just now seeming to start reaping some reward, and another cycle jump could be fatal for many devs). Competitively it'd also be better for Nintendo to launch asap, before Kinect and Move have too much of an opportunity to entrench themselves.

Also, it's be pretty easy for Nintendo to put together a PS3-plus level machine for $299 right now, much less a year down the line.  They'll definitely be competitive on both spec AND price.  I think they'll only go above $249 if the initial press response is overwhelmingly positive though (like with 3DS).

I disagree.

There is no pressure on Sony or Microsoft to release a new console because their profit do not come from hardware sales the way it does for Nintendo.( and while the overall hardware/software revenue is decreasing, the revenue for software on HD consoles is still increasing significantly and that is where they make their profit)

Nintendo is in a bad place because while it is a good idea to be the first to release a new gen machine and get a jumpstart, that only holds true while customers and publishers are getting ready to move on, and currently I don't think either are.

So you would end up with a new gen Wii with 5% of the game library of the current 360 and PS3 and in a few years when the PS4 and the next Xbox comes out the Wii would once again be incompatible with those and publishers would once again have to make a choice between which one they support and we now how that ended this gen...

You can only jumpstart a gen when most of the actors expect a new gen to start...

That assumes that publishers are going to follow Sony and Microsoft's lead into a new generation, and that Sony and Microsoft are going to make another very sizable technological leap, both of which would be bad moves, if publishers completely ignore Nintendo from the beginning again, unless Nintendo shows a horrible hand ahead of time like Sony did with the PS3. Likewise it would be ruinous for Sony and Microsoft to pursue the bleeding technical edge again. The next generational leap will likely be about optimizing the tech and nearer leaps

At the very least, a new Nintendo console's first-generation library would likely be rounded out by a flood of ports. Stuff like BioShock, Mass Effect, Fallout 3, Assassin's Creed 2, Soul Calibur IV, Resident Evil 5. Obviously utterly non-competitive, but at the least it would have a sizable library from the get-go

I'm still sticking with my 2012 prediction for the next console. Considering Wii is still outpacing the PS2 in sales, plus the fact that they are already releasing 3DS in 2011, releasing the next Nintendo console next year would be a bad move. Not to mention, Vitality Sensor has not even been released yet, so there's that factor too, unless Nintendo is planning on just moving the technology to the next console.

Wii2 Will come out April 2012. Everyone will talk about it all year long, then It will have a huge first Christmas.

No. Sony will bite Nintendo in the neck, infecting it with CRD, Clumsy Release Disease, so Ninty will release Wii2 on 26th December 2012 (at least still in time for Epiphany and Orthodox Xmas!  ).

Ha! lol

The pressure on Sony/MS wouldn't be internal, it'd be from outside influences.  The press likely being a big one upfront, though analysts and even consumers (specifically 360/PS3's traditional consumers) would likely be forces wanting new systems.  If Wii 2 sells well, that will just add to the pressure from outside.

And the beauty in Nintendo's situation is that a new system (and generational leap) for them isn't a new generation for 3rd parties, it's a lateral move.  There's no new huge R&D sink for most companies, they can just extend their current engines and toolchains to a new base, one following up the most successful home console in history, and a brand that most feel they "missed out" with the past 5 years. It's basically win/win for Nintendo, they'll get content without having to sink much cash to pioneer it, in fact this is basically the exact thing they're doing with 3DS.

You also need to stop looking at this as Wii having "only 5% of the 360/PS3 library"... going forward a Wii 2 would have 100% of the new multiplatform releases, and more significantly it'd impede Sony and Microsoft's own recent overtures (Move and Kinect) into their own expanded market.  Plus Wii 2 would undoubtedly get a healthy portion of older ports for top games from the previous cycle (as Wii did RE4, Okami, Bully, etc)... even worst case, you have to admit it'd be a far, far better situation 3rd party wise than Wii's looking at for the next 2 years.  And it's not like Wii having "only 5% of the PS2 library" held it back much upfront either.

And why exactly would consumers want new systems ? It's not like the PC is pushing the HD consoles to evolve these days ( which was still an issue at the end of the PS2 gen).

Personally as a consumer I don't really push to have to buy new hardware to keep gaming ( that must seem alien to those people that dish out 500$ each time a new Iphone model comes out, but still...)

I'm not talking the massmarket, I'm talking the vocal hardcore.  I'm talking the current 360/PS3 base.  In another year or two, they'll be getting the itch (some are already) and Nintendo coming in with their next gen release will just push the next cycle question to the forefront.  The massmarket will be just transitioning to HD systems though (and it's already started), which is why we'll see Wii 2 within 2 years from now.

And the reason PC isn't forging ahead is actually because of the HD consoles, they've basically eaten the PC market and they're holding back PC game development due to their inferior spec.  PC tech can destroy 360 and PS3 in capability, but the market's just not there to support a developer putting in that sort of effort.