Wii 2 Definitely NOT in 2011

[Ail]

jarrod said:

Ail said:

I disagree.

There is no pressure on Sony or Microsoft to release a new console because their profit do not come from hardware sales the way it does for Nintendo.( and while the overall hardware/software revenue is decreasing, the revenue for software on HD consoles is still increasing significantly and that is where they make their profit)

Nintendo is in a bad place because while it is a good idea to be the first to release a new gen machine and get a jumpstart, that only holds true while customers and publishers are getting ready to move on, and currently I don't think either are.

So you would end up with a new gen Wii with 5% of the game library of the current 360 and PS3 and in a few years when the PS4 and the next Xbox comes out the Wii would once again be incompatible with those and publishers would once again have to make a choice between which one they support and we now how that ended this gen...

 

You can only jumpstart a gen when most of the actors expect a new gen to start...

The pressure on Sony/MS wouldn't be internal, it'd be from outside influences.  The press likely being a big one upfront, though analysts and even consumers (specifically 360/PS3's traditional consumers) would likely be forces wanting new systems.  If Wii 2 sells well, that will just add to the pressure from outside.

And the beauty in Nintendo's situation is that a new system (and generational leap) for them isn't a new generation for 3rd parties, it's a lateral move.  There's no new huge R&D sink for most companies, they can just extend their current engines and toolchains to a new base, one following up the most successful home console in history, and a brand that most feel they "missed out" with the past 5 years. It's basically win/win for Nintendo, they'll get content without having to sink much cash to pioneer it, in fact this is basically the exact thing they're doing with 3DS.

You also need to stop looking at this as Wii having "only 5% of the 360/PS3 library"... going forward a Wii 2 would have 100% of the new multiplatform releases, and more significantly it'd impede Sony and Microsoft's own recent overtures (Move and Kinect) into their own expanded market.  Plus Wii 2 would undoubtedly get a healthy portion of older ports for top games from the previous cycle (as Wii did RE4, Okami, Bully, etc)... even worst case, you have to admit it'd be a far, far better situation 3rd party wise than Wii's looking at for the next 2 years.  And it's not like Wii having "only 5% of the PS2 library" held it back much upfront either.

And why exactly would consumers want new systems ? It's not like the PC is pushing the HD consoles to evolve these days ( which was still an issue at the end of the PS2 gen).

Personally as a consumer I don't really push to have to buy new hardware to keep gaming ( that must seem alien to those people that dish out 500$ each time a new Iphone model comes out, but still...)