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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wii 2 Definitely NOT in 2011

I bolded and underlined the most relevant parts. Source - http://www.nintendoeverything.com/54873/ . This is of course Iwata speaking:

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Next, let me address your question of whether or not we will be able to launch unique titles on Wii. Needless to say, Nintendo always wants to introduce you to unique titles and it has always been making efforts to create such titles. On the other hand, when it comes to unique titles, there is never 100% assurance that we can make software which will become the software which will receive massive support and appreciation from a wide range of our consumers. When we tackle with the actual development, many issues arise, which adds to the total development period. Also, when the software is unique, it is more challenging for us to communicate its appeal to consumers. Actually, the initial reaction to such titles should be, “Will it be really fun at all?” or “I just don’t get it.” So, we cannot afford to make the software too unique. Such titles as “nintendogs,” “Brain Training,” “Wii Fit” and “Wii Sports” were able to cross that hurdle in a short period of time. At Nintendo, we have not come to the stage where we need to give up on the developments of such unique titles at all. We do not feel that Wii has come to its limit.

This graph indicates the transitions of Nintendo DS and Wii users. As you can see, the number of DS users is not increasing significantly. Actually, it should be appropriate for me to say, “the number of Nintendo DS users is stable.” On the other hand, the number of Wii users is still growing. As we have the Japanese counterpart graph for this, I’d like to show it to you.

As we have been conducting the research for a longer period of time here, we have more graphs for the Japanese market. As you can see, Nintendo DS experienced explosive sales in the past, and since then, it has started to show decline but the actual number of Nintendo DS users is being maintained at a certain level. Having said that, in case of Wii, the number of users is constantly increasing. By looking at such graphs, we come to think, for example, we need to launch a device to succeed Nintendo DS in the near future while we have more room for expansion with Wii. We always look into how the number of our consumers is increasing, at which level it is being maintained and, because someday the number of consumers has to decline, how we can launch a successive system before the consumer base starts decreasing significantly. Having said that, however, we do not believe that we should apply any certain predetermined product lifecycle to this. When we conduct this type of survey semi-annually, we can clearly understand the fluctuations of our consumers’ interest in our platforms, so this must be one of the criteria for us to judge the transition to the next product.”

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SO, let's see what we have learned:

1. Nintendo do not feel the Wii has come to its limit

2. Nintendo's research shows number of DS users as stable (not growing), justifying a launch of a device to succeed it"in the near future"

3. Nintendo's research shows the number of Wii users is still growing, so they feel they have more room for expansion with the Wii

4. Nintendo do not believe in predetermined product lifecycle (e.g. the famous 5 year life cycle)

Whie Wii 2 may probably already be ready in many ways, given all the above that Iwata said, I don't see any way the Wii 2 could come out in 2011. They said they do this research every 6 months. The first time their research will show the Wii user numbers as stable or declining is when they will start moving - but then they will still need publishers to work on launch titles etc. So no way Wii 2 is coming out in 2011.



Currently Playing: Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked, Professor Layton and the Curious Village

Anticipating: Xenoblade, The Last Story, Mario Kart 7, Rayman Origins, Zelda SS, Crush3D, Tales of the Abyss 3DS, MGS:Snake Eater 3DS, RE:Revelations, Time Travellers, Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney, Luigi's Mansion 2, MH TriG, DQ Monsters, Heroes of Ruin

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releasing a Wii2 in 2011 while Xbox360 and PS3 sales are doing so well would be a terrible idea anyway.

Publishers are starting to be happy with their software sales on HD consoles and would be unlikely to give it much support at the start and from anything we can gather from Nintendo past the Wii 2 when it comes out will most likely have specs similar to a 360 with Kinect or a PS3 with move and would be competing with consoles with a huge libraries of titles and woudn't even be able to compete on price....

Very very bad idea...



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

err double post



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

The Next Nintendo console will launch during 2012.

You can however expect an announcement of the next console in 2011.



Cross-X said:

The Next Nintendo console will launch during 2012.

You can however expect an announcement of the next console in 2011.

That's what I believe as well. Though of course I may be wrong, I expect Nintendo's research to show number of Wii users as "stablizing" sometime next year due to Kinect and Move penetration, and that's when they will start the ball rolling  - E3 announcement and then 2012 launch in order to get enough launch titles. Given all Iwata said, I don't see them getting Wii 2 into developer hands or finalizing the CPU before their research shows them stabilization/decline.



Currently Playing: Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked, Professor Layton and the Curious Village

Anticipating: Xenoblade, The Last Story, Mario Kart 7, Rayman Origins, Zelda SS, Crush3D, Tales of the Abyss 3DS, MGS:Snake Eater 3DS, RE:Revelations, Time Travellers, Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney, Luigi's Mansion 2, MH TriG, DQ Monsters, Heroes of Ruin

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2011 is the year of the 3DS. Nitnendo does not have enough studios to adequately support the launch of two consoles within 9 months of each other



Ail said:

releasing a Wii2 in 2011 while Xbox360 and PS3 sales are doing so well would be a terrible idea anyway.

Publishers are starting to be happy with their software sales on HD consoles and would be unlikely to give it much support at the start and from anything we can gather from Nintendo past the Wii 2 when it comes out will most likely have specs similar to a 360 with Kinect or a PS3 with move and would be competing with consoles with a huge libraries of titles and woudn't even be able to compete on price....

Very very bad idea...


Whoa haven't seen you around much, but for once I agree with you, a new console makes no sense for a lot of reasons.



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2011 TGS announcement the earliest...

Miyamoto said he was making a new IP for next year. I don't know what that is.....but they truly believe the Wii ain't done yet so it could be a new 5m IP.......



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

Okie dokie, noted. There is little chance of a Wii 2 next year. Nothing to worry about, the longer it takes the likely better the console will be when it finally eventuates.



Tease.

Personally I never thought Wii 2 will come in 2011, this is just further indication that (imo) it will not happen.



Currently Playing: Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Survivor Overclocked, Professor Layton and the Curious Village

Anticipating: Xenoblade, The Last Story, Mario Kart 7, Rayman Origins, Zelda SS, Crush3D, Tales of the Abyss 3DS, MGS:Snake Eater 3DS, RE:Revelations, Time Travellers, Professor Layton vs. Ace Attorney, Luigi's Mansion 2, MH TriG, DQ Monsters, Heroes of Ruin