Wii 2 Definitely NOT in 2011

[Ail]

jarrod said:

Ail said:

releasing a Wii2 in 2011 while Xbox360 and PS3 sales are doing so well would be a terrible idea anyway.

Publishers are starting to be happy with their software sales on HD consoles and would be unlikely to give it much support at the start and from anything we can gather from Nintendo past the Wii 2 when it comes out will most likely have specs similar to a 360 with Kinect or a PS3 with move and would be competing with consoles with a huge libraries of titles and woudn't even be able to compete on price....

Very very bad idea...

Eh, you have this backwards... 3rd parties would definitely embrace a 360/PS3 spec-level Wii 2 sooner, as it would make for another platform for them to port their HD games too.  It'd enlarge that targeted "HD userbase", for 3rd parties that means more users and spread risk.  

It'd also put MS and Sony in a tough spot, as they'd simultaneously have pressure to launch new systems (since Nintendo just did) but 3rd parties will be pressuring them to wait (as HD multiplatform R&D is just now seeming to start reaping some reward, and another cycle jump could be fatal for many devs). Competitively it'd also be better for Nintendo to launch asap, before Kinect and Move have too much of an opportunity to entrench themselves.

Also, it's be pretty easy for Nintendo to put together a PS3-plus level machine for $299 right now, much less a year down the line.  They'll definitely be competitive on both spec AND price.  I think they'll only go above $249 if the initial press response is overwhelmingly positive though (like with 3DS).

I disagree.

There is no pressure on Sony or Microsoft to release a new console because their profit do not come from hardware sales the way it does for Nintendo.( and while the overall hardware/software revenue is decreasing, the revenue for software on HD consoles is still increasing significantly and that is where they make their profit)

Nintendo is in a bad place because while it is a good idea to be the first to release a new gen machine and get a jumpstart, that only holds true while customers and publishers are getting ready to move on, and currently I don't think either are.

So you would end up with a new gen Wii with 5% of the game library of the current 360 and PS3 and in a few years when the PS4 and the next Xbox comes out the Wii would once again be incompatible with those and publishers would once again have to make a choice between which one they support and we now how that ended this gen...

 

You can only jumpstart a gen when most of the actors expect a new gen to start...