I've always been sure it eventually would happen, after all ps3 has been outselling 360 pretty much constantly since launch, and especially recently it has become clear that it's going to happen it's only a matter of when. 

Anyways it's hard to say when, despite having higher software sales and most likely a higher userbase (since so many 360s broke compared to ps3s) 360 has managed to keep the lead from it's headstart, anyways If I were to guessed I'd say the ps3 will outsell the 360 in total sales around march 2012 I mean 360 doesn't even have any good exclusives coming out next year, but it hasn't had many for awhile and still manages to sell anyways thats my prediction 

Late 2011 or Early 2012.

Depends on how well Kinect does though for Hardware.

I think 360 will see a significant hardware boost from Kinect so I think it'll be a fair while yet. In fact, it's quite possible 360 will widen the gap over the post-Kinect months.

the thing is will kinect sell consoles, will the casuals buy a 360 for kinect. because imo it dosent matter if kinect sells millions, if it dosent sell consoles it dosent increase the userbase of the 360, thus PS3 still has the oppertunity to breach the gap by next year imo. 

it seems like it would make a good christmas present, so i think that it will be in the homes of many families, but whether or not those people buy xboxes for kinect is debatable i think.

I doubt it, if the 360S didn't widen the gap and halo reach boost lasted only one week kinect isn't going to widen it, no doubt it will sell more then average, but I don't think it will sell more then ps3 

2011 surely

and the $100 pric-cut next year will help PS3 make quite a gap too

The PS3 could outsell the Xbox 360 if things went perfectly for Sony and terribly for Microsoft. But 2012 is too early to guess based on your assumptions.

You say the PS3 has a higher user base than Xbox 360 due to busted units. You don't have any evidence of that. MS replaced those busted units for free so all those sales, for all we know, are gamers still playing on Xbox 360s, just free replacements instead of their original units.

Then you claim the Xbox 360 doesn't have any good exclusives next year and it hasn't had any good ones lately. Well, you might not like Gears of War 3, but a hell of a lot of people are looking forward to it's fall 2011 just for it. Fable 3, Halo Reach, Alan Wake, Splinter Cell Conviction as well as others are all great games that came out this year. You should know that MS likes to keep it's future titles secret long enough to keep sales of it's current games going. Next year will have plenty of top quality Xbox 360 exclusives, you just won't hear about them until after the holiday season.

Besides, exclusives matter to hardcore gamers, but most gamers are now semi-casual and they just want to play Call of Duty with their friends, who probably all have Xbox live going by the sales.

You also forgot to mention the impact of Kinect and Move. Sony's hasn't really created a firestorm with Move and we have yet to see what Kinect will do. If it sells slowly like Move the PS3 could have a chance to catch up, but if Kinect grabs the attention of casual families it would sell record numbers.

I'm not saying PS3 can't outsell the Xbox 360. I'm just saying you're not looking at it objectively.

Not until PS3 hits $199.99

If Kinect is a hit, a $50 cut on HW, and $50 cut on Kinect will do more damage than $100 on PS3. They'll both sell like hotcakes.

Of course I use the word IF, it all comes down to Kinect.

The difference between the release of the Slim and Kinect however is that Kinect is targeted and marketed towards the Wii audience. The Slim was simply an update of the 360 console and was essentially selling to the same portion of the market the original was. The same is true of Halo Reach.

Kinect on the other hand is looking to widen the 360s market, thus opening up the 360 to a much larger range of consumers.