Wow this thread needs to cool down.
ioi himself made clear that there was a lot of room for error (and there is, trust me) in any estimate of Move sales at this point from the available info. He made a stab at it and his estimates could be anywhere from close to miles off. No way to know yet.
To elabourate a bit, Move has launched with a bewildering number of ways to buy it, plus it's launched with a number of existing titles able to use it via a patch (I can't be botherered checking but just Heavy Rain and Eyepet worldwide must give a base of over 2M owners with a title they could patch and use with Move). Not only that, but one of those titles, EyePet, even includes half of the starter bundle. Then we have games which sold with EyeToy that aren't patched but nonetheless mean their are EyeToy owners who just need to buy a single Move wand to get on board.
Then we have clear evidence of both excess stock in some places and not enough in others - initiall allocation problems by the look of it coupled with varying demand by region/store for starter bundles vs single units.
Then we have sales across a variety of launch titles that range from okay to weak. Linked to this is the fact most titles have demos, and in most cases those demos could easily keep someone going for a while without even buying a single game just to try out their nice new starter bundle. My kids are still happily playing The Shoot and Start the Party demos (and as I'm sure not buying those titles full price they'd better learn to love the demos for a while)
Plus we have analysts jumping about, from Patcher saying it's underperformed to Patcher going whoops, did I say that? No it's performed pretty well and demand will be strong.
Also, at this point, via retailer feedback, Sony will be starting to get a handle of what the sell through is really looking like and what future ordering might look like. Retailers themselves will be taking stock and deciding how they want to order/inventory Move, meanwhile the holidays will be approaching and decisions will have to be made about what peak demand might look like, and whether enough stock is already in place or not...in short, there is a lot of noise around the launch.
Therefore... forget it. It's all broad guesses at this point, even for ioi, heck, even for Sony.
Things will settle down, better patterns will emerge, but really, there's way too many statements being thrown around in this thread as facts when they absolutely cannot be facts at this point, as well as supposedly "known" info such as exactly what Sony expected initial demand/sales to be which in fact is something we clearly do not have any access to or knowledge about and can only guess, and clearly those guesses can be across a wide spectrum of possibilities.
I've had fun guestimating just to play with the numbers, but too many people are moving beyond just having some fun and getting into heated arguements that simply cannot have a winner on either side at this point.
What we know is public statements on shippments to retailers across Europe, US and Latin America to the tune of 2.5 million plus this site's estimates on Move title sales plus ioi's estimates playing with some variables to guess sales of Move itself - based on ratios which you could easily argue could be higher/lower or whatever with so little available info.
Time to chill people. We don't know the sell through and it's all guesses at this point. Too many variables.
When the quote trails get too long it's a sure sign to cool it.
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