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Forums - Sony Discussion - Has the Playstation Move's apparent success made people go crazy?

starcraft on 24 October 2010
CGI-Quality said:
starcraft said:
CGI-Quality said:
starcraft said:

Success is all relative.  Do I believe that in and of itself Move will make a profit?  Likely.

Could the resources Sony has poured into it have been better spent?  Probably.

Did Move do what Sony and many of it's fans hoped or intended?  Certainly not.

And what did either of them intend?

A revitalizing of the platform?  Some sort of gaming revolution?

Certainly a much greater set of sales to consumers and a far better resonation with the public than what has happened thus far.

Could the situation change?  Of course.

Will it change?  Let's wait and see.

I don't recall Sony saying that. I certainly don't recall Sony fans saying that.

Are you honestly going to refute the notion that Playstation Move was a strongly hyped, highly emphasised part of Sony's PS3 stratagem from the moment it was announced?



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

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Seece on 24 October 2010
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
Darth Tigris said:

Quite true.

I think the big problem that keeps getting dodged by many is how IMPOSSIBLE it will be to properly  track a Move install base figure based on WHATEVER sales are presented.  Its comparable to Wii Play sales, as they may seem like the game is a huge success but many purchases were likely because of the controller.  But how do you know how many bought it for that reason?  Impossible to tell.  So when individuals celebrate or demean Move sales, it really rings hollow because its based on a general ignorance as WE JUST DON'T KNOW.

As Squil mentioned on page one, though, sales of Move-only games are the most important barometer for developers outside of SCE.  Any other sales figure will have far too many variables to judge how much they should invest in future Move titles.

Indeed, and the only true source we could ever hope to get, won't happen. Sony will always say "we've shipped 2.5 mill move" rather than "1 million install base", it just sounds better in every way to have a higher number.

So, when's the last time Nintendo or MS published their "install base numbers"?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say never.  This is exactly what I'm touching on in the OP.  This success has just messed with people's reasoning.  I don't understand why all these people all of a sudden have changed how they feel SONY should report its numbers just because of Move.  ALL companies report numbers this way.  Not only is it because it's an actual number and not an estimate, but because it's impossible to calculate the install base for anything.  Do you think there are companies that track every little country Sony, MS, and Nintendo ships to?  Of course not.  We have only people who track major regions.  And even with those large companies in large regions, they are all only estimates.  Ones that get corrected on a usual basis when financial reports arrive.

@ jneul

Well, I need to buy a plane ticket then, CAUSE I'M COMING OVER FOR DINNER!!

Yeah? I know that, and I'm not saying Sony SHOULD change the way they report numbers, don't jump the gun. The different with MS and Sony ect not saying what install base is, is we can track that for ourselves, from shipped figures and chart trackers like NPD and VGChartz. We can do all that with Move as well, but as you know it's more difficult to work out. Hence why an install base update from Sony would be more helpful than a console userbase update.



 

steverhcp02 on 24 October 2010
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
Darth Tigris said:

Quite true.

I think the big problem that keeps getting dodged by many is how IMPOSSIBLE it will be to properly  track a Move install base figure based on WHATEVER sales are presented.  Its comparable to Wii Play sales, as they may seem like the game is a huge success but many purchases were likely because of the controller.  But how do you know how many bought it for that reason?  Impossible to tell.  So when individuals celebrate or demean Move sales, it really rings hollow because its based on a general ignorance as WE JUST DON'T KNOW.

As Squil mentioned on page one, though, sales of Move-only games are the most important barometer for developers outside of SCE.  Any other sales figure will have far too many variables to judge how much they should invest in future Move titles.

Indeed, and the only true source we could ever hope to get, won't happen. Sony will always say "we've shipped 2.5 mill move" rather than "1 million install base", it just sounds better in every way to have a higher number.

So, when's the last time Nintendo or MS published their "install base numbers"?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say never.  This is exactly what I'm touching on in the OP.  This success has just messed with people's reasoning.  I don't understand why all these people all of a sudden have changed how they feel SONY should report its numbers just because of Move.  ALL companies report numbers this way.  Not only is it because it's an actual number and not an estimate, but because it's impossible to calculate the install base for anything.  Do you think there are companies that track every little country Sony, MS, and Nintendo ships to?  Of course not.  We have only people who track major regions.  And even with those large companies in large regions, they are all only estimates.  Ones that get corrected on a usual basis when financial reports arrive.

@ jneul

Well, I need to buy a plane ticket then, CAUSE I'M COMING OVER FOR DINNER!!

Yeah? I know that, and I'm not saying Sony SHOULD change the way they report numbers, don't jump the gun. The different with MS and Sony ect not saying what install base is, is we can track that for ourselves, from shipped figures and chart trackers like NPD and VGChartz. We can do all that with Move as well, but as you know it's more difficult to work out. Hence why an install base update from Sony would be more helpful than a console userbase update.

How in the world would they track that? And we certainly cant track install base and we certainly dont or else we wouldnt count PS3 slim rebuys or Xbox360s rebuys as unit sales now would we, or there would be disclaimers.




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BMaker11 on 24 October 2010
starcraft said:
Carl2291 said:
starcraft said:

Did Move do what Sony and many of it's fans hoped or intended?  Certainly not.

I don't know what Sony/Sony fans expected of Move.

Can you tell me please?

My perception of their expectations?  A substantial shift in the public perception surrounding the PS3.  In the way people want to play games.  A sizeable and sustained increase in sales.

Certainly not the lacklustre sell through we've seen evidence of. 

Move has clearly not been a major flop.  But to call it a "success" is an equivelant stretch, unless you truly believe that Son'y ONLY goal with Move was to literally break even on the hardware.

you sound like GeneralMLD

"they want to 'rebrand' the PS3" and all that nonsense.

No they don't, and they never said anything like that



Seece on 24 October 2010
steverhcp02 said:
Seece said:
thismeintiel said:
Seece said:
Darth Tigris said:

Quite true.

I think the big problem that keeps getting dodged by many is how IMPOSSIBLE it will be to properly  track a Move install base figure based on WHATEVER sales are presented.  Its comparable to Wii Play sales, as they may seem like the game is a huge success but many purchases were likely because of the controller.  But how do you know how many bought it for that reason?  Impossible to tell.  So when individuals celebrate or demean Move sales, it really rings hollow because its based on a general ignorance as WE JUST DON'T KNOW.

As Squil mentioned on page one, though, sales of Move-only games are the most important barometer for developers outside of SCE.  Any other sales figure will have far too many variables to judge how much they should invest in future Move titles.

Indeed, and the only true source we could ever hope to get, won't happen. Sony will always say "we've shipped 2.5 mill move" rather than "1 million install base", it just sounds better in every way to have a higher number.

So, when's the last time Nintendo or MS published their "install base numbers"?  I'm going to go out on a limb and say never.  This is exactly what I'm touching on in the OP.  This success has just messed with people's reasoning.  I don't understand why all these people all of a sudden have changed how they feel SONY should report its numbers just because of Move.  ALL companies report numbers this way.  Not only is it because it's an actual number and not an estimate, but because it's impossible to calculate the install base for anything.  Do you think there are companies that track every little country Sony, MS, and Nintendo ships to?  Of course not.  We have only people who track major regions.  And even with those large companies in large regions, they are all only estimates.  Ones that get corrected on a usual basis when financial reports arrive.

@ jneul

Well, I need to buy a plane ticket then, CAUSE I'M COMING OVER FOR DINNER!!

Yeah? I know that, and I'm not saying Sony SHOULD change the way they report numbers, don't jump the gun. The different with MS and Sony ect not saying what install base is, is we can track that for ourselves, from shipped figures and chart trackers like NPD and VGChartz. We can do all that with Move as well, but as you know it's more difficult to work out. Hence why an install base update from Sony would be more helpful than a console userbase update.

How in the world would they track that? And we certainly cant track install base and we certainly dont or else we wouldnt count PS3 slim rebuys or Xbox360s rebuys as unit sales now would we, or there would be disclaimers.

What on earth do the slim consoles have to do with this? The figures on the front page arnt nessacerily active install base but units SOLD across the globe, and when someone rebuys a slim what do you think happens to the phat? 9/10 times it's gets sold on to a new active user. And yes we do track overall Move sales and install base, obviously there is more room for discrepency. Sony will obviously know a lot about the sell through in each country, for various obvious reasons, they have the most data to hand to figure it out.



 

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Shadowblind on 24 October 2010

Both Sony and Microsoft's intentions with the new hardware is simply to try and replicate the Wii's success. Anyone who seems to believe otherwise is fooling themselves. Given this, I've seen both sides hype their respectie motion controllers to very high degrees; Sony not as much as Microsoft, but still a very considerable amount.

While I don't know much about the Moves sales (thus I cannot engage in discussion for or against them) I've seen some extremely poorly presented arguments in this thread, specifically ones that claim Sony did not have high expectations and campaigns for Move.

They did. Its natural they would. And it makes sense they would be happy to have 2.5 million Moves sold to retailers. Thats an impressive number, no matter how you look at it.



GOTY Contestants this year: Dead Space 2, Dark Souls, Tales of Graces f. Everything else can suck it.

IMU1808 on 24 October 2010
starcraft said:
CGI-Quality said:
starcraft said:

Success is all relative.  Do I believe that in and of itself Move will make a profit?  Likely.

Could the resources Sony has poured into it have been better spent?  Probably.

Did Move do what Sony and many of it's fans hoped or intended?  Certainly not.

And what did either of them intend?

A revitalizing of the platform?  Some sort of gaming revolution?

Certainly a much greater set of sales to consumers and a far better resonation with the public than what has happened thus far.

Could the situation change?  Of course.

Will it change?  Let's wait and see.


You're confusing statements about Move with statements at the project Natal unveiling and later MS comments...



cory.ok on 24 October 2010
Seece said:

What on earth do the slim consoles have to do with this? The figures on the front page arnt nessacerily active install base but units SOLD across the globe, and when someone rebuys a slim what do you think happens to the phat? 9/10 times it's gets sold on to a new active user. And yes we do track overall Move sales and install base, obviously there is more room for discrepency. Sony will obviously know a lot about the sell through in each country, for various obvious reasons, they have the most data to hand to figure it out.


the sales figures arent even close to install base, not even a little bit.

how exactly would one account for the x360s failure rate or numerous new models?  a lot of the time the hardware sold gets broken, goes unused or is simply lost, whichever the case install base is always dropping, but also at the same time rising from new sales.  to raise an install base you have to get more people using your product than there are people stopping using your product

vgchartz tracks market share, not install base.  



Shadowblind on 24 October 2010
CGI-Quality said:
Shadowblind said:

Both Sony and Microsoft's intentions with the new hardware is simply to try and replicate the Wii's success. Anyone who seems to believe otherwise is fooling themselves. Given this, I've seen both sides hype their respectie motion controllers to very high degrees; Sony not as much as Microsoft, but still a very considerable amount.

While I don't know much about the Moves sales (thus I cannot engage in discussion for or against them) I've seen some extremely poorly presented arguments in this thread, specifically ones that claim Sony did not have high expectations for Move.

They did. Its natural they would. And it makes sense they would be happy to have 2.5 million Moves sold to retailers. Thats an impressive number, no matter how you look at it.

The poorly presented argument is that somehow, Sony expected a game changer in Move. Nobody argued hype, but the levels of hype claimed by some are bogus.

They expected a slow burner, no matter how their words are twisted/broken/changed/spun. Regardless of what anyone thinks of it's current numbers, Move isn't a true success/failure until we hear from Sony.

But claiming that Sony/Sony fans expected Move to be a "gaming revolution" sounds far fetched to me.

I agree that Sony never expected it to be a "game changer". They expected it to be successful, which it was. I forgot to mention those arguments in my original post, though I had them on my mind as well.  Bottom line is that I think Move is doing fine for what Sony expected it to do.

That said, I'm not entirely sure what Sony expected. If they believed Move should have been a game changer, they shouldn't have. Given the launch titles, though, I assume they are expecting true success to happen around the time of Killzone 3 and Socom 4. If they were, I'd imagine they'd be rather happy about the amount they have sold leading up to that, given that its this high.



GOTY Contestants this year: Dead Space 2, Dark Souls, Tales of Graces f. Everything else can suck it.

billsalias on 24 October 2010
Reasonable said:
billsalias said:
Reasonable said:
billsalias said:

 

The fundamental problem is Sony did not release detailed information so we are all left to speculate on what the situation is. In this case both sides are showing their bias and taking the best and worst case scenarios respectively.

 

Currently we know is Sony has shipped 2.5 million of "Move", that is all. They did not give us detailed information of what those units were and they did not give a breakdown of the ratio of sales.

 

There is talk of shortages, but there are no details. I think universally no one is saying there is a shortage of starter packs but I think any reasonable person will agree the wands are not well supplied. (Anecdotal 

 

These two bits of information can be interpreted in so many ways that it is absurd for anyone on either side to claim anything as "fact". As an example here are two scenarios that are both supported by the above what I consider objective information.

 

Sony Bias

Sony shipped 750k started packs, 100k navigators and 1.65 million wands. 1 million PS-Eye owners bought 1 or 2 move controller and 600k starter packs sold with some of those people buying a second wand as well. The navigators are irrelevant. This results in 1.6 million unique move users. The 150k starter packs out there are enough for it to seem in supply but just barely and the wands are essentially sold out. Who cares about navs.

 

Anti Sony Bias

Sony shipped 1.7 million starter packs, 400k wands, and 400k navs. Only 100k starter packs sold and there are pallets of them sitting in warehouses waiting to be discounted because they can't be unloaded. 100k PS-Eye owners bought a wand and nav and each of the 100k starter pack buyers bought three of each, so yes all 400k sold out but there is only a user base of 200k.

 

With the information we have both viewpoints are equally valid. Personally I think both are equally unlikely. As usual the reality is some place in the middle with the scenario probably that Sony guessed wrong at the starter pack to wand ratio and the production they are ramping up is on stand along wands and they have plenty of starter packs available.

 

The lack of detailed sales information coming out of Sony backs up my "some place in the middle" scenario.  If news was as good as the Sony fans say they would be giving a lot more details, if it was as bad as the Sony haters say then they would not have said anything about numbers and stuck to their slow burn comments.


That is indeed the problem.  Ioi's calculations here are based on guesstimates and of course assuming different ratios can result in wildly different scenarios.

As I've stated in other threads I think that the likely position is indeed "somewhere in the middle" as you put it.

Move standalone Wands for example is definately the main element they are struggling to keep in stock.  Starter bundles seem to be in decent demand but are clearly in an okay stock position in most retailers.

Initial SW sales for new Move titles has been okay but not spectacular by any means.

Older titles with patches have seen small boosts, and of course existing owners of EyePet, Heavy Rain, etc. have surely been behind some of the demand.  EyePet owners in particular only face the purchase of a single Wand to get going, a very low cost of entry level to Move.

I think is Sony says 2.5 million shipped then that is likely pretty true.  Sell through though could be anything from 10% to 80% depending upon how you want to play the assumptions.

I reckon it's around 60 to 65% myself with a very fractured purchase base at launch, with some Eyepet owners just getting a Wand, some Heavy Rain owners getting a bundle, some people getting a bundle and trying out the demos, some getting a bundle plus SC, some getting Start the Party, etc.

I'd estimate maybe 600K to 900K install base depending, again, upon how you split the percentages.  I'd say a fair number of Move owners probably bought 2 or more items - for example I had Eyepet (and camera) and ended up buying 2 Move wands and a navi - that's 3 distinct purchases from a retail sales perspective.

Unless Sony decide to really come clean with the launch ratio of bundles to wands to navis, the sales of each (so far as they can infer from retail) then we really are just guessing with a very broad spectrum of possibilities.

At least Kinect should be easier to judge at launch: no existing games base, 1 unit per 360 in principle and nothing but new SW titles to judge from.

Yay, a reasonable (pun intended) poster.

I totally agree, but I think to hit the 900k mark there would need to be a very high existing ps-eye owner adoption rate. Though as you said that only requires a single wand purchase so minimal investment. And now that I think about it people that bought a ps-eye are probably likely to try move since they have shown there interest in alternate input methods already in buying the ps-eye.

I wonder if they will break it out in financial reports, doubtful I guess.


Exactly what I think.  If you bothered to buy an EyeToy and are still actively playing on PS3 why wouldn't you dabble with Move?  It's only a single Move Wand purchase to try it out.  Also, as you say, people who bought the Eye would likely be inclined towards something like the Move.

I'd love to know the EyeToy install base at the time of Move launch as I'm sure it could help with estimating demand from scratch - i.e. buying the starter bundle - vs incremental investment based on an existing purchase.

It might help or it might just introduce another variable we have no idea how to estimate and give the fanboys yet more to fight about. Unless Sony has a change of heart and decides to give some estimates based on the wealth of data they have that we don't (sales, psn, registration,etc) I think we are going to just have to live with not ever really knowing what the install base is. The best we can hope for is to see what some move only games sell like, but even then it will be just be another guess based on assumed tie in ratios which the fanboys can argue about until the thread is locked.