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Forums - Sales Discussion - Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

 

Gran Turismo 5 will fail to sell...

Best Selling Gran Turismo 939 37.95%
 
2nd Best Selling Gran Turismo 494 19.97%
 
3rd Best Selling Gran Turismo 389 15.72%
 
4th Best Selling Gran Turismo 116 4.69%
 
The Worst Selling Gran Turismo 536 21.67%
 
Total:2,474
Alby_da_Wolf on 20 November 2010

7.5-12M worst and best case scenarios? IMVHO it's a lot more sensible than 6-8.

BTW, I noticed that both Frieza and Ginyu forget apostrophes...   



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Killiana1a on 20 November 2010
CGI-Quality said:
Killiana1a said:
FinalEvangelion said:
Killiana1a said:

It will only reach the 10 million mark if Sony bundles it with every PS3 until the end of this generation coupled with it selling like hotcakes these holidays. Too much time has lapsed between GT4 and GT5 leaving other games such as God of War, Uncharted, Metal Gear Solid and others to define the "Playstation experience" absent Gran Turismo.

I have predicted 425,000 in it's opening week and 4 million lifetime (I assume it will be bundled to give it the legs it otherwise would not have standalone retail).

As of the latest preorder charts, GT5 is at 260,000 total. No way it breaks the 1 million mark it's first weekend unless it magically adds another 100,000-200,000 preorder between now and Black Friday.


So less than Prologue?

Good catch. I am fully aware of Gran Turismo 5 Prologue and it's 3.99 (http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Gran Turismo Prologue) sales since it was released in 2007.

Prologue's lifetime numbers are in line with my GT5 lifetime predictions. My estimate of 4 million is a tad higher.

The biggest spats I have been reading here mainly concerns GT5 vs. past GT games lifetime sales and first week sales.

There is nothing in Gran Turismo 5's preorders, currently, to make me believe there is more hype beyond the 260,000 preroders for Gran Turismo 5 to break the million barrier in it's first week.

I could be wrong, only time will tell.

You are wrong, as GT5:P is currently a 5 million seller (with downloads).

In any event, I think people shouldn't bicker much further about it at this point. The game launches next week, we'll see what it does, but I'm think it's sure to do 2.5 million. If it does, these predictions of 4 - 5 million lifetime will have proven to be FAR too low.

Yes, those numbers from http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html are a tad higher than VGChartz' numbers. I don't want to bicker about semantics.

As for my predictions, a lot of it is tied in with the success or lack thereof of the Wii this holiday and 2011. I believe if the Wii does not meet expectations these holidays and is not bolstered by Zelda next year, then Nintendo will announce at E3 2011 their latest console launching in 2012. This is a gut feeling of mine, not fact or truth.

Henceforth, if Nintendo ends this generation come 2012 then I just don't see Gran Turismo 5 being the huge seller both GT3 and GT4 were because it will have had less time for those bundled legs to run.

I could be wrong, but one thing I do know is that Gran Turismo 5 ain't going to touch Black Ops first day and first week sales. I am dead certain of it.



Killiana1a on 20 November 2010
Yakuzaice said:
Killiana1a said:
FinalEvangelion said:
Killiana1a said:

It will only reach the 10 million mark if Sony bundles it with every PS3 until the end of this generation coupled with it selling like hotcakes these holidays. Too much time has lapsed between GT4 and GT5 leaving other games such as God of War, Uncharted, Metal Gear Solid and others to define the "Playstation experience" absent Gran Turismo.

I have predicted 425,000 in it's opening week and 4 million lifetime (I assume it will be bundled to give it the legs it otherwise would not have standalone retail).

As of the latest preorder charts, GT5 is at 260,000 total. No way it breaks the 1 million mark it's first weekend unless it magically adds another 100,000-200,000 preorder between now and Black Friday.


So less than Prologue?

Good catch. I am fully aware of Gran Turismo 5 Prologue and it's 3.99 (http://www.vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=Gran Turismo Prologue) sales since it was released in 2007.

Prologue's lifetime numbers are in line with my GT5 lifetime predictions. My estimate of 4 million is a tad higher.

The biggest spats I have been reading here mainly concerns GT5 vs. past GT games lifetime sales and first week sales.

There is nothing in Gran Turismo 5's preorders, currently, to make me believe there is more hype beyond the 260,000 preroders for Gran Turismo 5 to break the million barrier in it's first week.

I could be wrong, only time will tell.

Ok, first of all the preorder charts are just for America.  Dragon Quest IX only had 35k preorders, yet it did ~2.5 million first week.  You can't judge worldwide sales from just one region.

Prologue is at 5.09 million shipped plus PSN sales as of September 2010.  Prologue also did 655k in its first week, yet you think GT5 will do less both first week and lifetime.  I find it hard to believe you really think this.

Yes, the America market, specifically the USA is the largest single video game market. If you want to argue regions, then you have a point, but when you say America I immediately think of individual countries.

You are exactly right, I am going off of VGChartz preorders which do not include all the regions thus a game like Dragon Quest IX where only 35,000 people cared about at launch sold like hotcakes and honey in Japan where hand-helds are the preferred way of gaming.



Killiana1a on 20 November 2010
Notorius.A.i.G said:
Killiana1a said:

It will only reach the 10 million mark if Sony bundles it with every PS3 until the end of this generation coupled with it selling like hotcakes these holidays. Too much time has lapsed between GT4 and GT5 leaving other games such as God of War, Uncharted, Metal Gear Solid and others to define the "Playstation experience" absent Gran Turismo.

I have predicted 425,000 in it's opening week and 4 million lifetime (I assume it will be bundled to give it the legs it otherwise would not have standalone retail).

As of the latest preorder charts, GT5 is at 260,000 total. No way it breaks the 1 million mark it's first weekend unless it magically adds another 100,000-200,000 preorder between now and Black Friday.



Are you talking about NA only ? Cause if you add in the pre - orders from the Japan Preview, GT5 is over the 425,000 mark. And this is without EMEAA. And 4 Million lifetime ?! GT5 releases on BF week. So the game's first week could be in the 2.5 - 3 Million mark. And then it still has December and the holidays to sell. It will pass the 4 Million mark before the year is up !  

I could be wrong, but am not yet because the game has not dropped.



Notorius.A.i.G on 20 November 2010
Killiana1a said:
Notorius.A.i.G said:
Killiana1a said:

It will only reach the 10 million mark if Sony bundles it with every PS3 until the end of this generation coupled with it selling like hotcakes these holidays. Too much time has lapsed between GT4 and GT5 leaving other games such as God of War, Uncharted, Metal Gear Solid and others to define the "Playstation experience" absent Gran Turismo.

I have predicted 425,000 in it's opening week and 4 million lifetime (I assume it will be bundled to give it the legs it otherwise would not have standalone retail).

As of the latest preorder charts, GT5 is at 260,000 total. No way it breaks the 1 million mark it's first weekend unless it magically adds another 100,000-200,000 preorder between now and Black Friday.



Are you talking about NA only ? Cause if you add in the pre - orders from the Japan Preview, GT5 is over the 425,000 mark. And this is without EMEAA. And 4 Million lifetime ?! GT5 releases on BF week. So the game's first week could be in the 2.5 - 3 Million mark. And then it still has December and the holidays to sell. It will pass the 4 Million mark before the year is up !  

I could be wrong, but am not yet because the game has not dropped.



Yeah but it has a combined 460k preorders without EMEAA so far. The first week figure looks very unlikely to me.  



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Mummelmann on 20 November 2010
Alby_da_Wolf said:

7.5-12M worst and best case scenarios? IMVHO it's a lot more sensible than 6-8.

BTW, I noticed that both Frieza and Ginyu forget apostrophes...   


Yeah, that Ginyu is a mysterious figure indeed...



Blue3 on 20 November 2010
Killiana1a said:

Yes, those numbers from http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html are a tad higher than VGChartz' numbers. I don't want to bicker about semantics.

As for my predictions, a lot of it is tied in with the success or lack thereof of the Wii this holiday and 2011. I believe if the Wii does not meet expectations these holidays and is not bolstered by Zelda next year, then Nintendo will announce at E3 2011 their latest console launching in 2012. This is a gut feeling of mine, not fact or truth.

Henceforth, if Nintendo ends this generation come 2012 then I just don't see Gran Turismo 5 being the huge seller both GT3 and GT4 were because it will have had less time for those bundled legs to run.

I could be wrong, but one thing I do know is that Gran Turismo 5 ain't going to touch Black Ops first day and first week sales. I am dead certain of it.

Whatever you are drinking, i want to try.  Wii's success or lack there of has no effect on PS3 or its games, some of you are really reachin far as for reasons GT5 wont sales. 

Its not you could be wrong, its you are just totally wrong.

Black Ops on PS3 or overall, big differance. 



Hyruken on 20 November 2010

So basically 41% of this website think it will sell almost 15m units?

I think this thread will be resurected many times over the coming years to show how high expectation for the game was.

If it get's beyond 8m i will be amazed let alone nearly double that!



Blue3 on 20 November 2010
Hyruken said:

So basically 41% of this website think it will sell almost 15m units?

I think this thread will be resurected many times over the coming years to show how high expectation for the game was.

If it get's beyond 8m i will be amazed let alone nearly double that!

Yes it will be resurected, to show how many of you have little understanding of this franchise. 

yahh 8m is amazing, for a game whos demo sold 5 million rofl.



SuperAdrianK on 20 November 2010

Man, 41% thinks is gonna pass 15 million? You guys are really shooting for the moon. I really want see a over 20 million button, now that'll be interesting.

This game is most likely going to be the second-third best selling. I would lean it more to second if it was heavily bundled.