In my opinion they pulled the rug out of Saturn to early. They were winning Japan until they started moving there big titles to DC (VF3, Shenmue, Virtual On 2) and pretty much stopped hyping Saturn software (Panzer Dragoon Saga, Shining Force 3). If they'd've kept those titles on the Saturn, and advertised them properly, they probably could've maintained their lead until 98. I think they could have gotten about 2 or 3 million extra consoles sold from 98 and 99 in just Japan.
Now, in the west, Sonic Adventure was really all they needed to get back on track. If they could've gotten Sonic Adventure out the door in time for holiday 98, along with Shenmue, Sega Rally 2 and Virtua Fighter 3, they could've done much better. I'd go so far as to say that Sonic Adventure would have been worth about 2 million extra Saturns in America and about 1 million extra in Europe.
If they'd've kept it up (House of the Dead 2, Grandia 2, Sakura Taisen 3 and so on) and launched DC in 2001 with Sonic Adventure 2, I'd say they'd still be in the business today.