## Forums - Sales Discussion - 10 Week Countdown 2010

PHEW! I almost missed this. I'll be submitting yet again this year. Life is busy, gimme some time!

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non-gravity said:
 Michael-5 said: I will vote fo this soon, it's just late now and I want to make predictions on a clear head. So add my name to the tab, and expect predictions by this weekend (have a lot of work to do this week, so I won't have time until then). Also, how do points work? I see the lower the points we get the better, but what are they based on? What do they reflect?

The points represent the per cent difference of your numbers from the real sales numbers (only slightly different).

They are calculated, so that over and underestimating are penaltied more equally, as:

( (predicted - real)/real*100% plus (predicted - real)/predicted*100% )/2

and then taking the absolute number in whole points .

example:

Predicted 200 Real sales number 250

( (200-250)/250*100 plus (200-250)/200*100 )/2 = -22,5 = 23 points

I really love how statistical people are here. Finally I have a home :)

What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database
Vote for the March Most Wanted / February Results

I shall post my predictions later since I have R.E. homework to finish.

I do believe that the Red Wii will boost Wii hardware sales quite significantly.

I updated the prediction tables again

got about 3-4 days left if you want to enter (those who enter have an extra day to edit.. bu you need to enter first)

Gonna do my predictions tonight now

It would be cool if we ALL just together choose a week that gT5 will hypothetically release in....that way there will be consistency accross predictions......better of all really

Are we allowed to do this TWROO?

All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

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 darthdevidem01 said: Gonna do my predictions tonight now It would be cool if we ALL just together choose a week that gT5 will hypothetically release in....that way there will be consistency accross predictions......better of all really Are we allowed to do this TWROO?

If it releases on Black Friday week which I'm betting on or later its boost will be masked by normal holiday boosts.

non-gravity said:
 darthdevidem01 said: Gonna do my predictions tonight now It would be cool if we ALL just together choose a week that gT5 will hypothetically release in....that way there will be consistency accross predictions......better of all really Are we allowed to do this TWROO?

If it releases on Black Friday week which I'm betting on or later its boost will be masked by normal holiday boosts.

Unless it releases the week of Christmas the percentage boost it will give in Japan will be significant and noticeable. Under normal circumstances I would expect PS3 sales to be in the 75k-100k range in Japan the first week of December. If GT5 releases that week I would expect it to do 200k-300k.

Proudest Platinums:
1. Gran Turismo 5
2. Persona 4 Arena
3. Wipeout HD
4. Ninja Gaiden Sigma 2
5. Super Street Fighter 4

postofficebuddy said:
non-gravity said:
 darthdevidem01 said: Gonna do my predictions tonight now It would be cool if we ALL just together choose a week that gT5 will hypothetically release in....that way there will be consistency accross predictions......better of all really Are we allowed to do this TWROO?

If it releases on Black Friday week which I'm betting on or later its boost will be masked by normal holiday boosts.

Unless it releases the week of Christmas the percentage boost it will give in Japan will be significant and noticeable. Under normal circumstances I would expect PS3 sales to be in the 75k-100k range in Japan the first week of December. If GT5 releases that week I would expect it to do 200k-300k.

Why?

last year it was at 29k for the equivalent to the current week we have (29k w/e 18th Oct 2009 versus 21k w/e17th Oct 2010)

Last year it got to 54k for the first week in December (ending 6th), why do you think it would do 50-100% better this year without GT5?

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As for the GT5 boost, I do think that is quite an overestimate too... I am not going to dismiss it, but it is so late into the console cycle that noticable effects of big game releases are lessened... GT3s release was much earlier in the PS2s life than GT5 is for PS3 for example, and that created a just a 66% boost (44 to 67k... during April so the boost was not masked by any holiday sales)

GT4 release was unfortunately in the middle of the holidays (28th December) so it's hard to tell what's going on, but the week it released was a 13% increase in Japan (190-215k) however that week crossed over New Years Day, which is often the biggest week of sales in Japan anyway.

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Also I figured while I was doing it i'd get some data for the other regions

(no game sales data for PAL or Americas back then but hardware sales showed these weekly figures)

GT3 PAL release  (GT3 release week in bold)
70k > 78k > 103k > 78k > 73k
this was during July 2001.

GT3 Americas release (release in bold)
82k > 85k > 109k > 116k > 99k
also July 2001.

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GT4 PAL release (release in bold... the game had a 1million 1st week sales for PAL alone)
165k > 143k > 140k > 134k > 133k
March 2005.

GT4 Americas release (release in bold... game launched with 770k sales)
167k > 162k > 139k > 126k > 116k
late Feb 2005.

Both GT4 releases occurred in the middle of downward trends in hardware sales... now at that time of year (late Feb early March) i would expect sales to be falling as January is still on an after Christmas (jan sales?) high and Feb follows behind, which March-April-May-June being the low point of the year... but the GT4 release doesn't even seem to have temporarily stopped that downward trend.

I think you are all hyping GT5 up way too much... yes it's a big release (in terms of impact on hardware sales there probably isn't anything left this gen bigger) but 300k? in Japan? at the START of December?

Console Wii PS3 360 PSP DS

VGChartz Sales Q2 1,94  2,0 2,8 1,15  3,4

VGChartz  Expected Shipments Q2 2,7 2,8 3,2 1,3 4

Real Shipments Q2 1,93 3,5 2,8 1,5 3,54

Something seems off

Edit: Besides the fact that my formatting didn't work

i'll do it tonight dont you worry!