I'm not really expecting either company to abandon their current platforms, but I do think a lot of people have been failing to pay attention to Sony and Microsoft's efforts to reposition their consoles within the market.

With that said, I think a lot of people are failing to see a trend of third party publishers anticipating the next generation of consoles. In my opinion, 2010 has been the biggest year for PC games since 2004; and (much like 2004) this has been because of increased interest in PC games from consumers (because consoles are no longer competitive) and developers (who are upgrading the tools, technology and processes in anticipation for the next generation). Realistically, I wouldn't be that surprised to see (most) major middleware and game engine developers showing off new (mature) technology at the next GDC all proclaiming that many/most major publishers already had several projects in the works using them.

Dude what are you talking about?  This is all speculation... Kinect is being debuted this year which means that 2011 is when it should really pick up steam and 2012 is when I expect Microsoft to ANNOUNCE their next console with a likely release the 2nd half of 2013.  Releasing a console too early (meaning more than 1 1/2 years too early) would be suicide for them because by the time a competitor comes out with their console they will technologically not be able to compete.

I have to disagree there. The launch schedule will look as follows

March 2011 - 3DS

Late 2011 - PSP2

Early 2012 - Wii2 and 720

Late 2012 - PS4

This generation is nearly at an end. Kinect and Move are being introduced now to give devs a chance to learn how to make half decent games with motion controls, so that when the next gen of consoles comes out, Sony and MS only have to support classic controllers to the degree the Wii does. They are not intended to lengthen the current generation

1I have to disagree with you on the bolded part Sony and MS have good cause to lengthen this gen, Sony is just starting to make money on the PS3 and MS is starting to make a healthier profit on the 360, 2Kinnect and Move will only serve to boost the # of consoles sold. 3There is no possible reason either would want the next gen to start this soon. 4Then let us not forget that the core games on both these systems do not lend themselves well to motion detection.

In my opinion, 2010 has been the biggest year for PC games since 2004; and (much like 2004) this has been because of increased interest in PC games from consumers (because consoles are no longer competitive)

1) What's the point of getting a bit of profit on this gen's consoles if it means completely fucking up next gen? (See 3)

There would be none, good thing that's not what's going on here, If they go on to the next gen they lose out on a good deal of revenue they could have recieved. Consumers are still buying these consoles in decent numbers, and to start the next gen with these numbers (which will get a boost from motion control) would be stupid from a business standpoint, both contenders just released new revisions of their console which indicates to me, they plan on staying in this gen for at least three more years.

2) Move has not had a huge effect on console sales so far, no more of an effect than a fairly big game release certainly. I don't see any reason why Kinect will be any different.

Marketing, Move had virtually none, Kinect had the snot marketed out of it, plus, neithor one is a game, you can't look at it that way, they are addons with potentially hundreds of new games, which means they will see a boost in sales (this will ultimately mean a boost in consoles) once software picks up.

3) Take a look at the early years of this generation - releasing earlier allowed MS to build up a considerable userbase advantage, which helped them convince developers to make games for the 360. MS will want this advantage again, Sony cannot allow them to get that advantage

MS was forced to release earlier because Nvidea stopped producing the GPU for the Xbox, it worked to their advantage, but with the current sales trends, and the foreseeable sales trends, they would be foolish to go into next gen so early.

4) Shooters, action-adventure and racers are some of the games that are most hindered by classic controls. Turn based rpgs will work just as well with or without and action rpgs are all essentially shooters or action-adventure in terms of how they control

Well no, all those genras are not hindered by classic controlls, they are enhanced by them, Motion detection is great, but it is more of a gimmic that will not be used 100% of the time for FPS, racers, and AA. Motion control takes too much energy for these, and neithor Move nor Connect has a control scheme that would work well for extended periods of time.

Halo, Gears, Killzone, MGS, GT, God of War. Surely that includes a few of Sony/MS's core games?

The 3DS and PSP2 are being talked about a lot now, the next gen is beginning. Everyone needs to release reasonably soon or there will be no point releasing a console - it will be unable to get enough userbase to warrant game development.

So, you are compairing the hand held market to the console market? It can't be done, handhelds are a completely differant animal. The next gen in HANDHELDS is coming. Not the console market.

You don't have a lot of posts but I'll be damned if you don't make an impact when you do post.  You make a lot of sense, buddy.