I agree software sells the console, but the Wii is not exactly in a software drought. It simply lacks the large number of 3rd party "niche" games. PS2's library had A LOT of RPG's, the Wii doesn't. PS2 also had a lot of action/adventure titles, racing titles, just just a bunch of moderatly successful 3rd party games. With the Wii, there are less 3rd party games, but the ones that stand out still sell as well as the typical 3rd party successful PS2 game.
Also first party games on the Wii crush PS2 games. 20 million for Mario Kart Wii and still rising? Soon it may outsell GT3 AND GT4 combined. Smash Bros is the most successful fighting game of all time, and no PS2 platformer has sold as well as Super Mario (Galaxy AND Bros).
I'll agree there is less software, but there is a substantial amount of it. Replace popular games like Dragon Ball Z, Soul Calibur with Just Dance and Disney: Epic Mickey, and the situation on the Wii is not that different. It's just Wii games appeal to a more casual audience, where PS2 games appealed to everyone.
As for PS3's tail, it's Japanese sales died early, but the PS2 sold well in EMEAA and americas for a long period of time. Maybe the PS2 was sold in some small regions that the Wii isn't, but overall Nintendo is still selling well in the same dominant areas. I.E. Americas and EMEAA sales are still strong.
It may not outsell the PS2, but I think it will. PS2 was also starting to loose sales around this time (look at PS2 2004 numbers and compare to Wii 2010). I think as soon as the wii makes a price cut, sales will sky rocket again.
In my mind, the only reason why the wii will not overtake the PS2 is if the Wii successor is similar to the Wii, and thus cuts it's sales. When PS3 came out PS2 still sold well because of the huge price, and very different console. PS3 did not cap PS2 sales, bu a Wii successor may cap Wii sales.
Still over 100 million is essentially given, if Wii doesn't overtake the PS2, it will come second (home consoles), and a close second at that.
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