You have to create an architecture that not only allows you to take advantage of this kind of hardware, but you also have to do it in such a way that it’s resilient in the face of people writing leaf code (not core engine code) and people creating assets for that pipeline. So that’s just a hard problem. If there were 500 people who could write a good game engine in the last generation, you’re really talking 50 people who are going to be good enough to do it in the next generation. Which is good for those people.

PC Gamer: Do you have those people?

Gabe Newell: Well, we think we do, yeah. But a good programmer could create an engine to take one of these architectures, and a great programmer could come in and do the same kinds of things and do them ten times faster on the same kind of hardware. In other words, it’s a non-linear return. And you just don’t see that today. Nobody walks in onto an Xbox or a PS3 team and can make something that runs ten times the amount of content on the screen. But in these emerging generations, that will definitely be the case.

So you know, guys like Carmack or Sweeney or the guys at Crytek can do it, but it’ll be harder and harder for other people to be able to program at that level. So that’s a side effect of it. The games will be great; I mean the opportunity is just immense for what’s going to be possible going forward.

What on earth is he talking about? If anything this gen has taught us that games and especially game engines have pretty much the same quality of graphics no matter who makes them.

Epic/Bioware - Unreal Engine - Mass Effect
Guerilla - KZ-engine proprietary - KillZone 2
id - Tech 5 - Rage
CryTek - CryEngine - Crisis
Ubisoft - Anvil - Assassin's Creed
Naughty Dog - Naughty Dog Engine 2.0 - Uncharted 2
Rockstar - RAGE - Red Dead Redemption
GSC - XRAY 1.6 Engine - S.T.A.L.K.E.R.
CD Projekt - proprietary - The Witcher 2
Techland - Chrome - Call of Juarez
Valve - Source - L4D
Bethesda - Gamebryo - Oblivion
DICE - Frostbite 2.0 engine - Bad Company 2
Reality Pump - GRACE engine - Two Worlds II
Sony Santa Monica - custom engine - God of War 3
4A Games - 4A Engine - Metro 2033
Team ICO - custom engine - The Last Guardian

well if you actually read the article you would realise he is talking about next gen, he clearly says that on the current gen it is impossible for a dev to come onto the PS360 and produce an engine that can push far more than current tech. But next gen the systems will be so powerful and so complex that even tho a good dev could make something spectacular a truly great dev will be able to make an engine that will be able to do so much more it will look like a generation leap.

The key part you seem to have missed is "Nobody walks in onto an Xbox or a PS3 team and can make something that runs ten times the amount of content on the screen. But in these emerging generations, that will definitely be the case."

as for your list well there are huge leaps in capabilities between some of the engines you listed. idtech5's mega textures for example (60fps people) vs gamebryo? yes they aren't massively different but there are clear examples of some engines just being better than others and what Gabe is saying is that next gen those differences will be massive between a good engine and a great one.

He is claiming there is and will be so much diversity and difference in programming skill and between game engine capabilites. I don't see that. I am seeing how the differences from the past have been erased in this generation (which had more complex hardware than the past). So if we see so many independent game developers able to create their own engines that can hold it's own against the UnrealEngines and CryEngines today, why would there be less tomorrow?

Also having Gamebryo (and Source) on the list is to illustrate how small the quality differences actually are, because you still see games developed on these engines and remaining graphically competitive (Left4Dead 2, Fallout New Vegas, Elder Scrolls 5) despite them being over 6 years old. Meanwhile the first game on id Tech 5 isn't even out yet. The quality leap between Gamebryo/Source and id Tech 5/CryEngine 3 doesn't look like a whole console generation to me.

I think you need to look at Oblivion with it's low res textures and few enemies on screen at once again and then compare it to rage it's not a generational leap but the difference is clear and keep in mind the scale and diversity Rage has (50ft enemies, long draw distances etc) and then remember that Rage is running at 60 fps. the diferences next gen will be even greater between engines. And tho the engines may be getting on they have been constantly updated until the point of the game releases. 

The difference ain't that big considering Oblivion was released in March 2006 and Rage will be released in Sep 2011 - 5.5 years after Oblivion!

Does that look like a 5.5 year difference to you?

And don't forget that both id Tech 5 and CryEngine 3 are supposedly next gen techs according to their respective developers, the very generation Gabe is talking about.

lets see high res textures, high polygon environment, realistic lighting, smooth shadows. vs no shadows, low res textures and low polygon environment. and only one of them is running at 60 fps on consoles. yup for the same tech that looks like a 5.5 year difference. and RAGE isn't even out yet...

 well they aren't really next gen engines as they are designed for current tech and is run on current tech. If you want to see a next gen engine look at ID tech 6 that is the kind of engine that gabe is talking about. The tech that will power the next gen of consoles more than likely hasn't even been deigned yet.

@zarx  when did Ninty fans ever tout graphics???? oh wait the the PS/N64 days, yeah it didnt help them back then. THe crappiest console (in terms of power) always does the best in sales. I dont think people should get hanged up on the who has better power thing because at the end of the day. Most people are cheap asses anyway and will go for the cheaper thing. GB>GG, DS>PSP, PS1>N64,DC, PS2>GC,XBOX, Wii>PS360.  Its a crazy thing