I don't think it quite will in the Americas - but I do think it is possible for the USA only.

PSP in the USA:

2005:  3.6m

2006: 3.0m

2007: 3.8m

2008: 3.8m

2009: 2.5m

2010: 1.4m (roughly - given  0.76m through August)

2011: 0.8 - 0.95m ??

I'm inclined to say Sony will cut the PSP price in the USA in 2011...but I don't know how much that matters with the smart phones, cheaper DS, and 3DS available in 2011.

If PSP was to drop below 1m in 2011 there is a real chance it would stop selling just before it reached 20 million units in the USA as it will be reaching 18m in the USA this year. It would also mean PSP would only have topped 1m in the USA for six years - 2005 - 2010.

For comparison major systems in the USA (according to research and estimates I have) have topped 1m units in the following years:

NES: 1986 - 1992 (7 years)

Gen: 1991-1995 (5 years)

SNES: 1991-1996 (6 years)

PS1: 1996-2002 (7 years)

N64: 1996-2001 (6 years)

PS2: 2000 - 2009 (10 years)

Xbox: 2001-2005 (5 years)

GC: 2001 - 2005 (5 years)

DS: 2004 - ?? (at least 7 years)

PSP: 2005 - 2010 (could reach 1m in 2011, but probably 6 years)

Wii: 2006 - ?? (at least 5 years)

PS3 - 2007 - ?? (at least 4 years)

X360 - 2006 - ?? (at least 5 years)

It depends if they announce a new PSP that DOESN'T suck it will rise. It seems hard for Sony to do...

Yeah I've had a great time with my PSP but I think its all but dead at this point outside of Japan.  I wouldn't be surprised if next year is its last "big" retail year.  The launch of the 3DS in America in March will all but kill whatever the PSP has left IMO.

Probably since there will more then likely be a PSP2 announced in 2011.

with a pricecut it could do it,i think

So you think with a pricecut... it will drop blow 1 million?

;)

wow, i didn't know it was in this bad of a situation in the US. Price cut needed there asap!

OT: i think it'll make it, one way or the other

haha,i read the question the wrong way round

i wondered why he mentioned americas...0.o

so no,i think it won't

I think it's very possible. AT the same time price cuts seem to do miracles. Its interesting to see the comparison with other consoles as well.

In terms of selling 1 million/year in America, it would put it at a tie with SNES and N64. I guess that's pretty cool.

Hm. A price cut at the time the 3DS launches makes sense to me. Of course we still don't know when that thing is going to be released.

I wonder if Sony will keep pushing the PSP in 2011. Of course a lot depends on the release of a potential successor. But so far Sony has tied the release of their consoles to a new storage medium with every new hardware they introduced. They even delayed the PS3 launch by a whole year just for the Blu-Ray player, didn't they?

This could lead Sony to refrain from introducing a PSP2 (considering the next logical step was downloadable games and that didn't work with the PSP Go). Anyone else got an opinion on this one?

So yeah there is a chance it might drop below 1 million.