Someone doesn't know the Holiday Season sales curve.

I am aware of the holidays, but that would still have to be an obscene spike to get that amount of units sold. Plus all the systems are on their fourth/fifth year and by this point market saturation has set in.

I too used to underestimate Xmas sales, but just read this http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=95276 and compare December sales of each console compared with their respective yearly sales. Last four months of the year are huge, and December alone is the hugest.

Wii could do at least 5M this holidays then, so lets say wii hits about 77M end of November add that 5M to make it 82M.

Yes. Last year I predicted too low for it, this year, IIRC, I predicted 5.9M.

82M, 83.8M shipped, end of next year I think 95M with about 96M shipped , and finally end of 2012, 106M  and 110M shipped. the number become less certain as you go on the years.  Wonder if Wii will hits 130M before 2016.

82 million, I think so.

It should defintly top GBA this year which sold about 81M.

It should be an easy road to 82 million this holiday, as Wii has a stronger lineup of games this holiday than they've had all 2010 so far as well as continued momentum from NSMB. DKC and Wii Party will be the biggest, with Kirby, Goldneye, Just Dance 2, and Epic Mickey all performing strongly as well, and have the potential to give at least a moderate boost to hardware.

As for the 100 million by the end of next year, it's a tall order, as the Wii will likely be in further decline, be a year further from the NSMB boost, and will probably have further thinned out releases. It could reach that mark by then, but Nintendo will need a few things to happen; a price drop, a steady lineup of releases, and Vitality Sensor has to be a hit.

When it's all said and done though, Wii should end up with around 130-135 million lifetime, falling just short of the PS2, but easilly beating the PS1 and GBA. However, if Vitality Sensor becomes a mega hit similar to Wii Fit, the console does have the potential to achieve up to 150 million sales, edging out the PS2.

It could even hit 83M if it sells at least 18M this year.