Well Halo: Reach is around the corner, and there is a lot of speculation to how well the game will sell. The game currently has just a little more Pre-orders the Modern Warfare 2, and about 1.5 times the Pre-orders of Halo 3, which to my knowledge had 1.1 million Pre-orders (Please correct me if I'm wrong). So if Reach sells in a similar fashion to Halo 3, it could potentially outsell Halo 3 by 73%. I doubt the game will sell 19 million copies (I'm guessing 14.5 million personally), but to be fair I thought it would be smart to compare pre-orders and weekly sales to past core games in the franchise. This way, once week one, two, three, etc figures come in, we can compare it's sales and make more accurate estimates on total game sales. So here we go.

Note -  Halo: Combat Evolved is excluded from the comparison because VGChartz does not have weekly sales data for the game. The game did go on and sell 6.43 million as a Launch title for the X-Box. This gives it a Software-Hardware ratio of 0.261, meaning that 26.1% of X-Box owners own a copy of Halo: Combat Evolved, which was a launch title for the 360.

Note - Halo 3, and ODST were released in September, so the 10 week data does not include December sales, where sales were very strong. So those games sold about a million more copies in December.

Halo 2 (Released November 9th 2004 in Americas, November 11th 2004 in EMEAA/Japan).

The game went on to sell 8.38 million units, on a console which only sold 24.65 million units. This gives the final Software-Hardware ratio of 0.340. This means that 34% of X-Box owners have a copy of Halo 2, a game that came out 3 years after the launch of the console.

Halo 3 (Released on September 25th 2007 in Americas, September 26th 2007 in EMEAA, and September 27th 2007 in Japan)

Currently Halo 3 has sold 11.14 million units, on a console with 42.71 million owners. So the Software-Hardware ratio is 0.261, meaning that 26.1% of 360 owners own a copy of Halo 3, a game that came out two years after the launch of the console.

Halo 3: ODST (Released on September 22nd 2009 in Americas and EMEAA, and September 24th, 2009 in Japan)

Currently Halo 3: ODST has sold 5.58 million copies, on a console with 42.71 million units. So the software-hardware ratio is 0.131, meaning that 13.1% of all 360 owners have a copy of Halo 3: ODST, a game that released 4 years after the launch of the console. Currently the game still sells in the range of 20-40k weekly, on a console which sells 180-200k weekly, a ratio of approximately 0.12-0.20 games sold for each new 360 owners.

Note: The Jump in sales during week 8, to above PS3 levels, was due to the release of Modern Warfare 2 with a limited edition Modern Warfare 2 X-box 360, 250 gig.

Halo: Reach

I will update this thread as weekly data comes in, -a in console sales means an adjustment was made this week, altering total console sales.

One important thing to notice is that Halo, Halo 2, and Halo 3 have attach rates of 26.1%, 34%, 26.1% respectively. If Halo Reach can achieve an attach at of say 20% by the end of 2011, that's 12 million units sold, and thats a conservative low estimate. If it achieves a 25% attach rate, that's 15 million units sold!

Also if Halo: Reach sells in a similar pattern to Halo 3, judging from Pre-orders it can do 19 million! That's a bit high for me, but all signs point to strong sales.

Halo: Reach will be released onto the X-box 360 when all previous Halo games sold on a smaller install base. This game will most likely be the best selling HD exclusive title this generation. Just to be sure, lets compare with Modern Warfare 2.

Note that Modern Warfare 2 came out in Novemeber, Holiday sales season. So it's sales may be a bit more front heavy then Halo's. A proper comparision would be to compare the number of games sold 20 weeks in as both consoles have the advantage of Holiday sales. I will be comparing Halo: Reach to both Modern Warfare titles, and Black Ops, on the 360.

Also after 10 weeks of Reach sales, I will likely expand all the tables, so Reach can take advantage of Holiday sales and get an accurate representation of sales to compare with other titles.

Halo 3 barely crawled to 11 milions including countless bundles , additional increases from release of Wars and ODST and price drops to as low as 15 euros at times and you think Reach will sell 19 milions?

Halo 3 also had price drops to $20 within 2 years, and no I don't think 19 million, I just said that if Halo sells along a similar pattern to Halo 3 it can. I estimate 14.5 million, as it says in my sig.

Good analysis...

While I don't think the game will sell 19 mil lifetime, it has a shot to do 15 mil for sure. 20% attach rate for the final Bungie Halo game is well within expectations.

IMO, attach rates are bogus to go by. The larger the install base, the less attach rate the same type of game would have. The amount of new costumers you gain are not percentage-wise the same amount of FPS fans as your original fanbase. I don't think using attach rates will create any sound base for sales projections.

That said, I do expect Halo Reach to outsell Halo 3 easily.

this makes a lot of sense.  We have to also count that another FPS Halo game probably won't be on it's way for awhile.  The longer Halo Reach sits on the shelves solo style, the better it will do.  A good comparison is looking at the Call of Duty franchise.  Every time a new game comes out, sales for the previous one goes down, and with the new content the Treyarch is bringing to the table, Black Ops could actually beat Modern Warfare 2 if it plays it's cards right.  I wasn't going to buy Black Ops, but seeing the new video on the XBL Spotlight yesterday, my little gamer sense were tingling with excitment.

but newer franchise games effect the previous sales, and I would imagine Reach sitting on the shelf for quite awhile, cause it took awhile for ODST to come out also.

I hope Reach sell 19 milllion, but with Black Ops coming out also this holiday season, it has some of the bigggest competition I've ever seen.  And that's saying something.

What countless bundles are you referring to? The only two big ones were the Halo 3 console one and the one with Fable II about a year and a half after the game out that was only with $400 elites. I understand that a few people on here like to play down Halo's sales, but stop making stuff up. Halo Wars and ODST are not comparable to Halo 3 or Reach.

If anything I base my projections on comparisions with Halo 3 pre-orderwise. Since Halo 3 had 1.1 million pre-orders, and Halo Reach is looking to achieve 1.9 million or so, you could predict Halo sells 19 million. Thats crazy though, and I realize that.

My intention was to show that by comparing Halo: Reach to any past Halo title, and making predictions of on outcome of the game, all predictions look astonishing. I personally predict 14.5 million, therefore above Halo 3, and Modern Warfare 2.

<table style="width: 90%;" border="0"><tr><td><strong>themanwithnoname said:</strong><br /><table style="width: 90%;" border="0"> <tbody><tr> <td><strong>Zlejedi said:</strong><br> <p>Halo 3 barely crawled to 11 milions including countless bundles , additional increases from release of Wars and ODST and price drops to as low as 15 euros at times and you think Reach will sell 19 milions?</p> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <p><br>What countless bundles are you referring to? The only two big ones were the Halo 3 console one and the one with Fable II about a year and a half after the game out that was only with $400 elites. I understand that a few people on here like to play down Halo's sales, but stop making stuff up. Halo Wars and ODST are not comparable to Halo 3 or Reach.</p></td></tr></table><br /><br />

its official we have a new reach! all rejoice the forums will be funny again.