Also this gen won't end 2012.. bioshock infinite is coming to  this gen consoles in 2012 so it just proves this gen will last until 2015

I think 2011 would be a reasonable guess. Can't know what's going to happen in 2012/2013 though.

No, I expect next gen to start Fall 2012 or 2013.  I thought I made that clear by saying the PS3 will reach $199 by 2012 and that it would be in the final price stages headed out of the generation.

Also, you misunderstood what MS and Sony have said.  MS says it will extend the LIFE of the console, not the generation.  That is to say that the console will live on past the launch of the NEXT generation.  Same as Sony with their "10 year plan".

PS3 (imo)still has 4yr's (or more)of selling in this gen. i'll say 2013! it's just going to get bigger and bigger from here on out, ip wise. more newones in 2012-2013. 2014?

End thread. Seriously.

I say next year, I think that's when we will a $199 PS3

That 70% of console sales come at $200 thing is total BS.

If you adjust for inflation, PS3 at $300 in 2010 costs roughly what PS2 did in May 2002 when it went to $200. It is also an issue of timing. Of course PS2 sold the majority of its units at $200 or less - it has been $200 or less since month 18. PS3 is in month 46 in the USA and its still $300. Money & Time determine interest at various prices.

PS3 has spent far longer on the market at $300 or more, and Sony isn't about to cut to $200 next year either. I'd wager $200 is a 2012 time frame for PS3, while $250 is in the cards for 2011. The "key" price point for PS3 is likely $300 as those who wanted an HD system at $200 probably bought an X360.

Beyond that, PS3 has been tracking very similarly to PSP in an aligned launch for three full years now if Sony meets its 15m projection for the March 2010 year, so if that trend holds up there would be a big dip next year:

               FY3            FY4          FY5                FY6

PSP      9.6              13.8         14.1               9.9

PS3       10.1           13           15 (prj)            ??

All three systems are probably getting price cuts in 2011 (Nintendo isn't going to have ONE price cut in five years - on a console that's unheard of), so its probably going to be the current year that is the peak if Move doesn't take off. So in 2011, Wii will be $149 and PS3 will be $249, and X360 will probably cost from $149 - $249. I actually think there is a pretty good base to be made that PS3 HW sales will be down a bit in USA / Japan for Oct- Dec:

In Japan, PS3 Slim Final Fantasy XIII 10,000 Yen Price Cut is a hell of alot better than...Gran Turismo 5 and some small games

In the USA, Call of Duty and Uncharted aren't coming, and PS3 looks like it will be down in Aug-Nov without the price cut / Slim. So it is basically Gran Turismo 5, Little Big Planet 2 and a number of big multiplatform third party games.

PS3 in the USA in 2009 was like this...but I think figures for 2010 will be more like this:

2009                   2010

210k - Aug  -   180k (45k/week)

492k - Sept -   275k (55k/week)

321k - Oct  -   260k (65k/week)

710k - Nov -   552k (138k /week)

1350k - Dec - 1250k (250k / week)

Its roughly offset by Europe, which will see a big boost from Gran Turismo 5, but overall PS3 shipments could fall to 6m from 6.5m in the Dec quarter - so I think October 2009 to September 2010 is the peak.

$199 PS3 2011-2012

It has always puzzled me that why X360 is so much cheaper to manufacture than PS3... It has been 179€/199$ ages and PS3 probably can't match that price point before 2012.  Both are basically 2005 PC hardware so why so dramatic difference in manufacturing prices? PS3 has blu-ray drive but even those are pretty cheap for sony to manufacture these days.