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Forums - Sales - Wii worst year for sales already? really???

TheSource on 20 August 2010

You guys are kind of slow...but no, it won't be the worst year as future years and 2006 will be worse.

Wii FY 3/2007: 5.84m

FY 3/2008: 18.61m

FY 3/2009: 25.94m

FY 3/2010: 20.53m

FY 3/2011 Forecast - Known For Months: 18.00m

Nintendo has been expecting Wii sales for this fiscal year (April 2010 - March 2011) to be worse than FY 3/2008 (Apr 2007 - March 2008) since it issued its forecast.

One other major difference between the two years though is that the Wii is simply a much larger software market than it was in 2007 even though purchasing rates per user have declined, it is offset by the growth in the base.

Wii is easily set to beat its 2007 performance in the Americas - last I checked it was up against 2007. The main difference between Wii in 2007 & 2010 is that Wii will easily beat 2007 holiday numbers as Wii had major supply issues in Dec 2007, barely increasing over Nov. In the March 2008 fiscal year only 7m Wiis were shipped in December quarter - with 3m or so to the Americas. This year even if shipments are down a good 20% over the 2009 December quarter Wii shipments will still be 9.0m.

I still expect Wii to get to around 8m in the USA in 2010 - a huge figure given this the second year of decline already as the lineup of content that will still be selling / new for Fall 2010 is pretty broad:

Singing/Dancing: Just Dance 2, Def Jam, Michael Jackson, Just Dance, Broadway Musical

Music: DJ Hero, Guitar Hero, bunch of Disney & Ubisoft stuff

Platformer: DKC, Galaxy 2, Kirby, Epic Mickey, NSMB Wii, Sonic Colors

Shooter: Call of Duty, Metroid, Conduit 2, Goldeneye

Sports: NBA Jam, Deca Sports 3 Wii Sports, Wii Sports Resort, Madden, Tiger Woods, NHL, Soccer, Mario & Sonic, Tony Hawk, Shaun White Skateboarding

Party: Wii Party, Carnival Games

Action: Force Unleashed 2, Pokepark, Batman Brave & The Bold, Cabella, Rapella

Racing: Need for Speed, Mario Kart

Random: Udraw, Create, NFL Training Camp, Fling Smash,Sims 3, My Sims Sky Heroes, Rabbids in Time

Fitness: EA Sports Active 2, Wii Fit Plus

 

There were 14 games that topped 500k on Wii, in the Americas, in 2007. It was essentially:

Sports: Wii Sports, Mario & Sonic, Mario Strikers

Music: Guitar Hero

Party: Mario Party 8, WarioWare, Carnival Games, Rayman Raving Rabbids

Shooting: Metroid Prime 3, Crossbow Training

Misc: Wii Play

RPG: Zelda, Super Paper Mario

Platformer: Super Mario Galaxy

This year it will be:

Sports: Wii Sports, Mario & Sonic, Wii Sports Resort, NBA Jam, maybe two or three others (Madden, Shaun White Skateboarding being the likely contenders)

Platformers: Galaxy 2, NSMB Wii, DKC Wii, Kirby Wii, Epic Mickey, Sonic Colors

Dancing: Just Dance, Michael Jackson, Just Dance 2

Music: One or two of the following: Def Jam, Rockband 3, Guitar Hero, DJ Hero, Broad Way Musical, High School Musical, Disney Sing it

Shooter: Metroid, Goldeneye, Call of Duty

Party: Carnival Games, Wii Party

Action: Force Unleashed 2, Pokepark, Batman Brave & The Bold, Cabella, Rapella

Fitness: EA Sports Active 2, Wii Fit Plus, NFL Training Camp, The Biggest Loser, Gold's Gym, EA Sports Active

Racing: Maro Kart, maybe Need for Speed

Action: Force Unleashed 2, Lego Harry Potter, Neff & Strike, maybe Monster Hunter 3, Pokepark, Fling Smash and a couple others

Random: Possibly Udraw, Create

Looks like a good 30-40 games over 500,000 to me - up from 22 in 2009 and at least even with the 29 in 2008.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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Metallicube on 20 August 2010

For the 18th time, let's wait till the holidays when Wii actually have some system movers before we proclaim doom and gloom. People are going to look foolish when Wii ends up selling 3.5 - 4 million in December in the US off the heels of Donkey Kong Country and the holiday boost.



Nintendogamer on 20 August 2010
Seece said:
Nintendogamer said:
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:

 I Predict about 4 - 5M for the rest of the year with no games to push HW.

lol what? You don't seriously think that, do you? I think you're just downplaying your expectations so that you can end up being pleasantly surprised.


Well it's dropping like a stone now and when move releases they will see it as a more advanced tech and will get that instead of Wii,  as mot people have said, everyone who wanted a wii has pretty much got one. 

Again, I don't think you really believe any of this, but if you do, how do you explain the steady sales of 150,000 Wiis every week right now?

Dropping liek a stone cpmpared to last year but it doesn';t drop liek a stone every time, it will do it at a certain time, maybe in like 4 weeks it will drop below 130K then steadily hovering around maybe 125K then wil ldrop below 100K, then at near Xmas it will hover around maybe 350K a week?

Ugh, REALLY getting annoying now. Wii won't drop below 100k and you know it, heck it won't drop below 130k.

 

Stop it.

I remember you saying " heavens know how low wii can drop, it could drop to 130K towards the end of august - to begeinning of September", that's not exacly what you said but  you said something like that a few weeks back in some thread.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

Metallicube on 20 August 2010
RolStoppable said:

Wii sales keep declining from year to year while the 360 and PS3 are able to hold their pace steady or improve their sales rate, despite the Wii being the winner of this generation and the HD consoles the losers. Do these sales trends defy all logic?

Not really. The main (if not the only) reason the HD consoles are up is the slim models, which almost acts as an entirely new console. Without them, the HD consoles would be in the same position as the Wii right now.



Seece on 20 August 2010
Nintendogamer said:
Seece said:
Nintendogamer said:
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:

 I Predict about 4 - 5M for the rest of the year with no games to push HW.

lol what? You don't seriously think that, do you? I think you're just downplaying your expectations so that you can end up being pleasantly surprised.


Well it's dropping like a stone now and when move releases they will see it as a more advanced tech and will get that instead of Wii,  as mot people have said, everyone who wanted a wii has pretty much got one. 

Again, I don't think you really believe any of this, but if you do, how do you explain the steady sales of 150,000 Wiis every week right now?

Dropping liek a stone cpmpared to last year but it doesn';t drop liek a stone every time, it will do it at a certain time, maybe in like 4 weeks it will drop below 130K then steadily hovering around maybe 125K then wil ldrop below 100K, then at near Xmas it will hover around maybe 350K a week?

Ugh, REALLY getting annoying now. Wii won't drop below 100k and you know it, heck it won't drop below 130k.

 

Stop it.

I remember you saying " heavens know how low wii can drop, it could drop to 130K towards the end of august - to begeinning of September", that's not exacly what you said but  you said something like that a few weeks back in some thread.

TO. Not below, and given how Wii is holding up, it won't.

People can see through you ya know ... they know your posts arnt genuine.



 

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Nintendogamer on 20 August 2010
Seece said:
Nintendogamer said:
Seece said:
Nintendogamer said:
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:

 I Predict about 4 - 5M for the rest of the year with no games to push HW.

lol what? You don't seriously think that, do you? I think you're just downplaying your expectations so that you can end up being pleasantly surprised.


Well it's dropping like a stone now and when move releases they will see it as a more advanced tech and will get that instead of Wii,  as mot people have said, everyone who wanted a wii has pretty much got one. 

Again, I don't think you really believe any of this, but if you do, how do you explain the steady sales of 150,000 Wiis every week right now?

Dropping liek a stone cpmpared to last year but it doesn';t drop liek a stone every time, it will do it at a certain time, maybe in like 4 weeks it will drop below 130K then steadily hovering around maybe 125K then wil ldrop below 100K, then at near Xmas it will hover around maybe 350K a week?

Ugh, REALLY getting annoying now. Wii won't drop below 100k and you know it, heck it won't drop below 130k.

 

Stop it.

I remember you saying " heavens know how low wii can drop, it could drop to 130K towards the end of august - to begeinning of September", that's not exacly what you said but  you said something like that a few weeks back in some thread.

TO. Not below, and given how Wii is holding up, it won't.

People can see through you ya know ... they know your posts arnt genuine.


Huh I didn't think I was a ghost.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

jarrod on 20 August 2010
superchunk said:
RolStoppable said:

Wii sales keep declining from year to year while the 360 and PS3 are able to hold their pace steady or improve their sales rate, despite the Wii being the winner of this generation and the HD consoles the losers. Do these sales trends defy all logic?

sort of.

I think the fact that PS360 started so high in price combined with how 3rd parties refused to jump on Wii with signifianct quality IPs like they did for past generational leaders has allowed the 2/3rd place parties to thrive where previosly they have floundered.

Very interesting but proves a point to all console makers.

1. Nintendo must be within reason of hareware power.

2. MSony can't expect to win with >$300 hardware.

Next gen will be a more 'normal' setup as all three enter with similar abilities in terms of power and probably top out at $300-350. THus, whomever is winning, will have the ability to capture the 3rd party exclusiveness once deemed automatic in previous gens.

I'd say "thrive" is embellishing it quite a bit.  Some 3rd party developers are surviving on PS360 (and a few are doing better than that admittedly), but a rather unhealthy proportion of them have been dropping like flies this gen.  We've not had this proportionately many studio layoffs, sellouts or outright bankruptcies and closures since the crash in the 80s.

I said this elsewhere, but 3rd parties are between a rock and a hard place this gen, and it's largely due to their own making.  They can face an apathetic/hostile Wii market that no longer trusts them, or the can spend their way to oblivion with a PS360 market that constantly demands more, yet sells less than what they're used to.   They basically needed another PS2 this gen, and their own actions have more or less been what's prevented that from happening.



primogen18 on 20 August 2010

^nail  on the head there

And I have to say, Microsoft and Sony fanboys have not seen anything yet when it comes to "casual games", "Mini-game fests" and "shovelware". They can point and laugh at Wii all they want, but just wait until the wave hits their consoles and fills it with Carnival Games, Family fun _____, Imagine - Stretching, or whatever comes down the way. Kinect and Move will just be full of them.

Also, my store has sold far more Kinect pre-orders then move. Anyone I have ever talked to about move has shrugged it off or just plain laughed at it. "If I wanted a Wii, I would have bought one already" .



nightsurge on 20 August 2010
superchunk said:
kowenicki said:
 

Unfortunately you are incorrect.  "The 360 curve is the same"?? Go check.. it isnt.  360: 2008 11m, 2009 10.6m this year 11m plus... the 360 has been VERY consistent, with marginal changes over the last 3 years.

How you can say the recent Wii fall off this year isnt surprising is beyond me.... the fall off is dramatic... like I said its tracking at about 60% of 2007 sales.

Here is history and my estimate. I think this is not only highly probably but fits my description exactly.

 

JAN-AUG 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
X360    2,947,603      2,826,295      4,097,550      4,279,386      5,233,468
Wii                   -        7,649,704    11,384,682      8,331,405      7,819,594
PS3                   -        3,062,571      4,969,406      3,987,579      5,805,761
AUG-DEC 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
X360    2,808,860      5,052,050      6,911,103      5,952,830      6,500,000
Wii    2,932,010      8,738,237    13,008,999    13,471,479    12,000,000
PS3    1,232,194      4,559,320      4,750,059      8,601,436      8,000,000
TOTAL 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
X360    5,756,463      7,878,345    11,008,653    10,232,216    11,733,468
Wii    2,932,010    16,387,941    24,393,681    21,802,884    19,819,594
PS3    1,232,194      7,621,891      9,719,465    12,589,015    13,805,761

*** EDIT: This is assuming no price cuts for systems before holidays, otherwise you could add 1m to each system easy.

How do you figure that the PS3 is going to sell 8 million from August thru December and the 360 only 6.5 million when the 360 has been outselling it and is looking to continue that trend into the holidays (where the 360 with momentum has had a big advantage over PS3 in the past)?

I'd say your figure for the 360 is way too low and your figure for PS3 too high for that time period.



Metallicube on 20 August 2010
RolStoppable said:
Metallicube said:
RolStoppable said:

Wii sales keep declining from year to year while the 360 and PS3 are able to hold their pace steady or improve their sales rate, despite the Wii being the winner of this generation and the HD consoles the losers. Do these sales trends defy all logic?

Not really. The main (if not the only) reason the HD consoles are up is the slim models, which almost acts as an entirely new console. Without them, the HD consoles would be in the same position as the Wii right now.

Just goes to show which companies had the better foresight this generation and can reap the rewards now.

I would say Nintendo probably had the better foresight, as they released a console that has already sold 73 million in less than 4 years..