You guys are kind of slow...but no, it won't be the worst year as future years and 2006 will be worse.
Wii FY 3/2007: 5.84m
FY 3/2008: 18.61m
FY 3/2009: 25.94m
FY 3/2010: 20.53m
FY 3/2011 Forecast - Known For Months: 18.00m
Nintendo has been expecting Wii sales for this fiscal year (April 2010 - March 2011) to be worse than FY 3/2008 (Apr 2007 - March 2008) since it issued its forecast.
One other major difference between the two years though is that the Wii is simply a much larger software market than it was in 2007 even though purchasing rates per user have declined, it is offset by the growth in the base.
Wii is easily set to beat its 2007 performance in the Americas - last I checked it was up against 2007. The main difference between Wii in 2007 & 2010 is that Wii will easily beat 2007 holiday numbers as Wii had major supply issues in Dec 2007, barely increasing over Nov. In the March 2008 fiscal year only 7m Wiis were shipped in December quarter - with 3m or so to the Americas. This year even if shipments are down a good 20% over the 2009 December quarter Wii shipments will still be 9.0m.
I still expect Wii to get to around 8m in the USA in 2010 - a huge figure given this the second year of decline already as the lineup of content that will still be selling / new for Fall 2010 is pretty broad:
Singing/Dancing: Just Dance 2, Def Jam, Michael Jackson, Just Dance, Broadway Musical
Music: DJ Hero, Guitar Hero, bunch of Disney & Ubisoft stuff
Platformer: DKC, Galaxy 2, Kirby, Epic Mickey, NSMB Wii, Sonic Colors
Shooter: Call of Duty, Metroid, Conduit 2, Goldeneye
Sports: NBA Jam, Deca Sports 3 Wii Sports, Wii Sports Resort, Madden, Tiger Woods, NHL, Soccer, Mario & Sonic, Tony Hawk, Shaun White Skateboarding
Party: Wii Party, Carnival Games
Action: Force Unleashed 2, Pokepark, Batman Brave & The Bold, Cabella, Rapella
Racing: Need for Speed, Mario Kart
Random: Udraw, Create, NFL Training Camp, Fling Smash,Sims 3, My Sims Sky Heroes, Rabbids in Time
Fitness: EA Sports Active 2, Wii Fit Plus
There were 14 games that topped 500k on Wii, in the Americas, in 2007. It was essentially:
Sports: Wii Sports, Mario & Sonic, Mario Strikers
Music: Guitar Hero
Party: Mario Party 8, WarioWare, Carnival Games, Rayman Raving Rabbids
Shooting: Metroid Prime 3, Crossbow Training
Misc: Wii Play
RPG: Zelda, Super Paper Mario
Platformer: Super Mario Galaxy
This year it will be:
Sports: Wii Sports, Mario & Sonic, Wii Sports Resort, NBA Jam, maybe two or three others (Madden, Shaun White Skateboarding being the likely contenders)
Platformers: Galaxy 2, NSMB Wii, DKC Wii, Kirby Wii, Epic Mickey, Sonic Colors
Dancing: Just Dance, Michael Jackson, Just Dance 2
Music: One or two of the following: Def Jam, Rockband 3, Guitar Hero, DJ Hero, Broad Way Musical, High School Musical, Disney Sing it
Shooter: Metroid, Goldeneye, Call of Duty
Party: Carnival Games, Wii Party
Action: Force Unleashed 2, Pokepark, Batman Brave & The Bold, Cabella, Rapella
Fitness: EA Sports Active 2, Wii Fit Plus, NFL Training Camp, The Biggest Loser, Gold's Gym, EA Sports Active
Racing: Maro Kart, maybe Need for Speed
Action: Force Unleashed 2, Lego Harry Potter, Neff & Strike, maybe Monster Hunter 3, Pokepark, Fling Smash and a couple others
Random: Possibly Udraw, Create
Looks like a good 30-40 games over 500,000 to me - up from 22 in 2009 and at least even with the 29 in 2008.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
