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Forums - Sales - Wii worst year for sales already? really???

superchunk on 20 August 2010
kowenicki said:
superchunk said:
kowenicki said:
 

Unfortunately you are incorrect.  "The 360 curve is the same"?? Go check.. it isnt.  360: 2008 11m, 2009 10.6m this year 11m plus... the 360 has been VERY consistent, with marginal changes over the last 3 years.

How you can say the recent Wii fall off this year isnt surprising is beyond me.... the fall off is dramatic... like I said its tracking at about 60% of 2007 sales.

Here is history and my estimate. I think this is not only highly probably but fits my description exactly.

 

JAN-AUG 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
X360    2,947,603      2,826,295      4,097,550      4,279,386      5,233,468
Wii                   -        7,649,704    11,384,682      8,331,405      7,819,594
PS3                   -        3,062,571      4,969,406      3,987,579      5,805,761
AUG-DEC 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
X360    2,808,860      5,052,050      6,911,103      5,952,830      6,500,000
Wii    2,932,010      8,738,237    13,008,999    13,471,479    12,000,000
PS3    1,232,194      4,559,320      4,750,059      8,601,436      8,000,000
TOTAL 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
X360    5,756,463      7,878,345    11,008,653    10,232,216    11,733,468
Wii    2,932,010    16,387,941    24,393,681    21,802,884    19,819,594
PS3    1,232,194      7,621,891      9,719,465    12,589,015    13,805,761

*** EDIT: This is assuming no price cuts for systems before holidays, otherwise you could add 1m to each system easy.

So you are now agreeing that the 360 actually DOESNT follow a similar curve then?

and you reckon the Wii will have  its 2nd worst year rather than its worst.   Thats a fair estimate.   But I still believe it will be nearer the 16.3m of 2007 than the 21.8m of 2009

LOL, so fixated on one thing huh. Yes, the 360 will have a better year this year than my first post above mentioned. Once I ran the numbers, it was clear.

As for the topic of this thread, the Wii is not domed and is selling like a normal item.



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Seece on 20 August 2010
oldschoolfool said:

It doesn't really matter. No matter how you spin it,it's still going to be number one this gen.

ROFL, wrong quote!

 

@ Machina - Yeah it's becoming annoying.



 

jarrod on 20 August 2010
haxxiy said:
superchunk said:
kowenicki said:

Is it possible the Wii could have its worst full year ever... its only 800k above 2007 now!

YTD for Wii

2007 - 7,935,313  (plus extra 8,452,628 to end of year)

2008 - 11,384,682

2009 - 8,945,173  (plus extra 12,563,892 to end of year)

2010 - 8,727,181 

This week in 2007 the Wii sold 285k.... this week the Wii sold 155k...  

From 19th August to September 29th 2007 the Wii sold 1,419,710.  Can the Wii expect to get anywhere near that in the coming weeks?  i'd say around 1,000,000 is more likely, so 2010 will then be very close to 2007.

Is it possible and have sales fallen off a cliff?    Or will the holiday numbers save its bacon?

Talk about it.


All you need to do is look at 2009 to see how the rest of year will play out.


$50 Pricecut, Just Dance, NSMBWii, America sales madness?

We have Wii Party, Just Dance 2, DKCR and now WSR bundled standard (ie: a value added 'drop' essentially).  The secondary releases this year are also way stronger for the 2nd half (Epic Mickey, Kirby EY, Goldeneye, NBA Jam, The Last Story, PokePark Wii, Inazuma Eleven Wii, Sonic Colors, New Carnival Games, Other M, etc), plus last year's and the first half's big evergreens are still legging it out (NSMBWii, Wii Fit Plus, Galaxy 2), something Wii didn't have going for it in 2009 (Animal Crossing CF and Wii Music being famous underperformers).

Overall, I'd agree that Wii this year doesn't have anything on the same scale as NSMB Wii in terms of a singular 'killer app' to drive hardware, but it's lineup is more varied and full and that probably offsets  that omission to some degree.  Plus, it still has NSMB now, which will still push huge units this holiday (probably another 1m in December alone).



Nintendogamer on 20 August 2010
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:

 I Predict about 4 - 5M for the rest of the year with no games to push HW.

lol what? You don't seriously think that, do you? I think you're just downplaying your expectations so that you can end up being pleasantly surprised.


Well it's dropping like a stone now and when move releases they will see it as a more advanced tech and will get that instead of Wii,  as mot people have said, everyone who wanted a wii has pretty much got one. 



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

superchunk on 20 August 2010
kowenicki said:

why are you getting defensive... I am not spinning anything and yes it will likely be NO.1 this gen... All I am saying is that its decline seems rapid currently.


Don't see how I was getting defensive, but its only going down by a couple million  a year which isn't all that 'rapid'. Also, look at how 2009 jan-aug was less than 2008, yet 2009 xmas was still higher.

Really depends on the actions of any of these companies in fall. If they all drop prices with any significant manner, it could be yoy increases for each of them.

Plus, I think people are forgetting that the black Wii and the WSR bundles didnt' exist last holidays, so that should also have some effect.



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Mr Khan on 20 August 2010
jarrod said:
haxxiy said:
superchunk said:
kowenicki said:

Is it possible the Wii could have its worst full year ever... its only 800k above 2007 now!

YTD for Wii

2007 - 7,935,313  (plus extra 8,452,628 to end of year)

2008 - 11,384,682

2009 - 8,945,173  (plus extra 12,563,892 to end of year)

2010 - 8,727,181 

This week in 2007 the Wii sold 285k.... this week the Wii sold 155k...  

From 19th August to September 29th 2007 the Wii sold 1,419,710.  Can the Wii expect to get anywhere near that in the coming weeks?  i'd say around 1,000,000 is more likely, so 2010 will then be very close to 2007.

Is it possible and have sales fallen off a cliff?    Or will the holiday numbers save its bacon?

Talk about it.


All you need to do is look at 2009 to see how the rest of year will play out.


$50 Pricecut, Just Dance, NSMBWii, America sales madness?

We have Wii Party, Just Dance 2, DKCR and now WSR bundled standard (ie: a value added 'drop' essentially).  The secondary releases this year are also way stronger for the 2nd half (Epic Mickey, Kirby EY, Goldeneye, NBA Jam, The Last Story, PokePark Wii, Inazuma Eleven Wii, Sonic Colors, New Carnival Games, Other M, etc), plus last year's and the first half's big evergreens are still legging it out (NSMBWii, Wii Fit Plus, Galaxy 2), something Wii didn't have going for it in 2009 (Animal Crossing CF and Wii Music being famous underperformers).

Overall, I'd agree that Wii this year doesn't have anything on the same scale as NSMB Wii in terms of a singular 'killer app' to drive hardware, but it's lineup is more varied and full and that probably offsets  that omission to some degree.  Plus, it still has NSMB now, which will still push huge units this holiday (probably another 1m in December alone).

That's largely what i was trying to say. Thank you.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Nintendogamer on 20 August 2010
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:

 I Predict about 4 - 5M for the rest of the year with no games to push HW.

lol what? You don't seriously think that, do you? I think you're just downplaying your expectations so that you can end up being pleasantly surprised.


Well it's dropping like a stone now and when move releases they will see it as a more advanced tech and will get that instead of Wii,  as mot people have said, everyone who wanted a wii has pretty much got one. 

Again, I don't think you really believe any of this, but if you do, how do you explain the steady sales of 150,000 Wiis every week right now?

Dropping like a stone cpmpared to last year but it doesn';t drop liek a stone every time, it will do it at a certain time, maybe in like 4 weeks it will drop below 130K then steadily hovering around maybe 125K then wil ldrop below 100K, then at near Xmas it will hover around maybe 350K a week?



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d

Smeags on 20 August 2010

It's amazing of what a couple months can do for a sales forum. But hey, that's the VGChartz world, where a console can be doing poorly one moment and thriving the next... only to see it down again. Very much a rollercoaster ride.

I wonder if Nintendo is looking at the success of the 360 Slim and seeing how they can use it for their own advantage. Heck, they've been doing it before that with the DS (many times ), and with fantastic results.

Wii re-release to increase demand like what's happened with PS3 and 360? I don't know (somewhat doubt it, but hey... they did it with the NES*.), but 2011 will be interesting nonetheless. I'm thinking Wii 2 will be announced next year to start off the next gen with 3DS, so this time they can get the first couple of paces off the starting line. We'll see.

@Topic

Holiday sales won't be the 2009 craziness, but it'll do just fine. I won't say you're overestimating Kinect/Move, because I think they'll do fine enough (especially Kinect... I really have no idea about Move...), but I think you're underestimating Wii's potential sales for this holiday season. We'll see soon enough.

*Thank you Rol.



3DS Rec Thread ~ Wii U Rec Thread ~ Xbox One Rec Thread

Seece on 20 August 2010
Nintendogamer said:
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:
Machina said:
Nintendogamer said:

 I Predict about 4 - 5M for the rest of the year with no games to push HW.

lol what? You don't seriously think that, do you? I think you're just downplaying your expectations so that you can end up being pleasantly surprised.


Well it's dropping like a stone now and when move releases they will see it as a more advanced tech and will get that instead of Wii,  as mot people have said, everyone who wanted a wii has pretty much got one. 

Again, I don't think you really believe any of this, but if you do, how do you explain the steady sales of 150,000 Wiis every week right now?

Dropping liek a stone cpmpared to last year but it doesn';t drop liek a stone every time, it will do it at a certain time, maybe in like 4 weeks it will drop below 130K then steadily hovering around maybe 125K then wil ldrop below 100K, then at near Xmas it will hover around maybe 350K a week?

Ugh, REALLY getting annoying now. Wii won't drop below 100k and you know it, heck it won't drop below 130k.

 

Stop it.



 

superchunk on 20 August 2010
RolStoppable said:

Wii sales keep declining from year to year while the 360 and PS3 are able to hold their pace steady or improve their sales rate, despite the Wii being the winner of this generation and the HD consoles the losers. Do these sales trends defy all logic?

sort of.

I think the fact that PS360 started so high in price combined with how 3rd parties refused to jump on Wii with signifianct quality IPs like they did for past generational leaders has allowed the 2/3rd place parties to thrive where previosly they have floundered.

Very interesting but proves a point to all console makers.

1. Nintendo must be within reason of hareware power.

2. MSony can't expect to win with >$300 hardware.

Next gen will be a more 'normal' setup as all three enter with similar abilities in terms of power and probably top out at $300-350. THus, whomever is winning, will have the ability to capture the 3rd party exclusiveness once deemed automatic in previous gens.