I think Nintendo is loosing market share because as many said Nintendo's Wii was marketed to casual non-gamers. The Wii may have got some people into gaming I'd say about 5-10% but the others bought it as a fitness tool or as a quick game system for when they have guests, a quick game of bowling or Tennis every few months.

Is Wii past its prime (Yes) is Wii going to keep selling (Yes), will it sell alot less then in the past (Yes) will it loose marketshare to Microsoft's Kinect (Possible).

Fact is Nintendo has to make a choice and I believe they have. Try to target the core audience again like they used too, or try to create the next trend (Innovative product that takes the market by storm). Nintendo has chosen the latter, Iwata clearly said the next Nintendo console will revolutionalize the way we play games, it will do what the Wii can't it will be an entirely new and innovative product.

The problem with such an innovative and revolutionary product is that Nintendo is essentially gambling big time. They are neglecting their core demographic to target a non-existant new demographic. Sure they've hit the market twice in a row now (DS/Wii) but they shouldn't push their luck. If their next product fails to capture the minds and hearts of non-Gamers then Nintendo has nothing to fall back on, their core demographic just isn't what it used to be.

My predictions, Wii will push another 10-15 mill before it dissapears, I am including sales after the next generation begins. Why? I expect Nintendo to hit sales alittle higher or barely lower then the competition. I expect Kinect to fail miserably pushing Microsoft sales down and Move will be only minimally successful, Sony may rise to the leader position on a weekly or monthly basis but I suspect Nintendo will keep on fighting. So given their is still another 3 years at least left in the Wii's lifespan I think 5-mill a year is reasonable. Also I think price is a major reason Wii is slacking the new 360 model sells for 199.99$ and the Wii is supposed to also retail for 199.99$. I suspect Nintendo will have to drop the price radically probubly to about 99.99$ in order to maintain any form of dominance , it also needs a good mixture of hardcore and casuals games. Zelda alone won't save Wii's marketshare but neither will WiiFit:Extreme (Wiifit3). Or what ever new product they innovate with.

Nintendo needs a mixture of casual and hardcore software to maintain hardware superiority. But in the end I don't think Nintendo can be toppled entirely this generation they will still end with a larger marketshare then the competition but they will have a much smaller marketshare then if they succesfully targetr both casual and hardcore!

                           PS2               Xbox GC       Ratio (PS2: Xbox GC)        (Shipments by Year Ending March)

FY 3/2002       18.1m           6.88m             2.6:1

FY 3/2003       22.5m           11.30m           2:1

FY 3/2004       20.1m           10.85m           1.85:1

FY 3/2005       16.2m          10.21m            1.6:1  

FY 3/2006       16.2m           5.78m              2.8:1

FY 3/2007       14.8m          1.32m               11:1

FY 3/2008        13.7m         0.16m                86: 1

Even PS2 saw its advantage narrow pretty heavily mid-decade...but since Microsoft / Nintendo saw declining hw / sw sales that advantage was re-asserted once the smaller sw markets had to be replaced. Figures above combined production shipments with shipments to retail for PS2, so the figures include about 5m units of PS2 redundancy (not all systems made by April 2006 were shipped to retailers by April 2006) that favors Xbox / GC even more.

The main difference with the Wii generation is that the systems peaked at different times AND have somewhat similar peaks. X360 and PS3 both had 10m peaks for a year - Xbox & GC combined peaked at 11m for three years...while PS2 was still averaging 20m / year. Wii peaked at 26m...but PS3 / X360 weren't near peaking yet. So combined they can substantially beat Wii by a significant margin in their peak phase. But generally speaking, the smaller the peak the quicker the system declines - and both PS3 & X360 will have much smaller peaks than Wii so they should decline faster. My guess is that even as Wii continues to decline, X360 & PS3 combined will return to selling roughly what Wii sells by itself.

                           Wii               X360 PS3       Ratio (HD: Wii)

FY 3/2006                                 3.2m               Infinite

FY 3/2007       5.8m               11.3m             1.9:1

FY 3/2008      18.6m             17.2m             0.9 : 1.0           

FY 3/2009      25.9m             21.3m             0.8 : 1.0

FY 3/2010      20.5m             23.0m             1.1 : 1.0

FY 3/2011E    18.0m             25.0m             1.4 : 1.0

FY 3/2012E    15m                 17m                1.1 : 1.0

FY 3/2013E     11m                12m                1.1 : 1.0

FY 3/2014       7.5m               7.5m                1 : 1

FY 3/2015       4m                   3.8m               0.95:1

FY 3/2016       2m                    1.3m               0.6 : 1

FY 3/2017        0.8m                                        Inf

Wii is set for probably six years over 10m, while PS3 will have four years over 10m and X360 will have three years over 10m. That said, Wii had two years over 20m - and X360 / PS3 don't look like they will have any years over 20m - so with quicker declines there should be a gradual reset from 7:5 in the peak HD year (which I believe is this fiscal year) to 1:1 between Wii / HD systems. Just as the PS2 : Xbox GC rate reset very quickly from under 2:1 to well over 2:1                            

Yes, the wii is doom. It's the only week of the year it was outsell by the Xbox360 and PS3, and this erase the 6 first month of the year which the wii outsell the Xbox360 and PS3 WW.

As more reasonable peoples say, let's see how holidays turns before judge. Because actually, the doomed wii is still ahead of the PS3 and Xbox360, and even more, the PS3 is likely to have its peak this year.

I am curious about the vitality sensor wild card for Nintendo. This still a big incertitude as we know nothing about it now but it can ended up to be huge and dismiss the motion control move taken by the competitor if it's played well.

Another person missing the point of my thread. I didn't make this because the X360 and PS3 outsold the Wii this week, I made it because year after year the Wii sales have been going down and by quite a bit, more then a generation leader should be dropping, while PS3/X360 sales either remain the same or have gone up. This is lowest the Wii's ever been.

And at one point where it was shear miracle that the competition beat it in other regions now it's almost normal. PS3 will soon be consistently outselling the Wii in Japan and probably even EMEAA once GT5 drops, and X360 has been beating the Wii or even tying in America for quite some time now.

Another person missing the point of my thread. I didn't make this because the X360 and PS3 outsold the Wii this week, I made it because year after year the Wii sales have been going down and by quite a bit, more then a generation leader should be dropping, while PS3/X360 sales either remain the same or have gone up. This is lowest the Wii's ever been.

And at one point where it was shear miracle that the competition beat it in other regions now it's almost normal. PS3 will soon be consistently outselling the Wii in Japan and probably even EMEAA once GT5 drops, and X360 has been beating the Wii or even tying in America for quite some time now.