| TheSource said: PS2 Xbox GC Ratio (PS2: Xbox GC) (Shipments by Year Ending March) FY 3/2002 18.1m 6.88m 2.6:1 FY 3/2003 22.5m 11.30m 2:1 FY 3/2004 20.1m 10.85m 1.85:1 FY 3/2005 16.2m 10.21m 1.6:1 FY 3/2006 16.2m 5.78m 2.8:1 FY 3/2007 14.8m 1.32m 11:1 FY 3/2008 13.7m 0.16m 86: 1 Even PS2 saw its advantage narrow pretty heavily mid-decade...but since Microsoft / Nintendo saw declining hw / sw sales that advantage was re-asserted once the smaller sw markets had to be replaced. Figures above combined production shipments with shipments to retail for PS2, so the figures include about 5m units of PS2 redundancy (not all systems made by April 2006 were shipped to retailers by April 2006) that favors Xbox / GC even more. The main difference with the Wii generation is that the systems peaked at different times AND have somewhat similar peaks. X360 and PS3 both had 10m peaks for a year - Xbox & GC combined peaked at 11m for three years...while PS2 was still averaging 20m / year. Wii peaked at 26m...but PS3 / X360 weren't near peaking yet. So combined they can substantially beat Wii by a significant margin in their peak phase. But generally speaking, the smaller the peak the quicker the system declines - and both PS3 & X360 will have much smaller peaks than Wii so they should decline faster. My guess is that even as Wii continues to decline, X360 & PS3 combined will return to selling roughly what Wii sells by itself. Wii X360 PS3 Ratio (HD: Wii) FY 3/2006 3.2m Infinite FY 3/2007 5.8m 11.3m 1.9:1 FY 3/2008 18.6m 17.2m 0.9 : 1.0 FY 3/2009 25.9m 21.3m 0.8 : 1.0 FY 3/2010 20.5m 23.0m 1.1 : 1.0 FY 3/2011E 18.0m 25.0m 1.4 : 1.0 FY 3/2012E 15m 17m 1.1 : 1.0 FY 3/2013E 11m 12m 1.1 : 1.0 FY 3/2014 7.5m 7.5m 1 : 1 FY 3/2015 4m 3.8m 0.95:1 FY 3/2016 2m 1.3m 0.6 : 1 FY 3/2017 0.8m Inf
Wii is set for probably six years over 10m, while PS3 will have four years over 10m and X360 will have three years over 10m. That said, Wii had two years over 20m - and X360 / PS3 don't look like they will have any years over 20m - so with quicker declines there should be a gradual reset from 7:5 in the peak HD year (which I believe is this fiscal year) to 1:1 between Wii / HD systems. Just as the PS2 : Xbox GC rate reset very quickly from under 2:1 to well over 2:1 |
What this generation has shown us so far is that it cant be compared to any other that preceded it, and the bolded part i just dont see how its going to happen that way, so far what we have seen gives no indication of that happening, you are very optimistic for the wii and very critical of the DH twins on those predictions wii is slowing down while the others are still going up, and there is no reason for a big deseleration of the HD twins next year if they are selling well at the price they are selling now why will they slow down when they reach mass market price (especially the ps3)
