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Forums - Sales - Okay we got to discuss this - Wii/Sales

TheSource on 08 August 2010

                           PS2               Xbox GC       Ratio (PS2: Xbox GC)        (Shipments by Year Ending March)

FY 3/2002       18.1m           6.88m             2.6:1

FY 3/2003       22.5m           11.30m           2:1

FY 3/2004       20.1m           10.85m           1.85:1

FY 3/2005       16.2m          10.21m            1.6:1  

FY 3/2006       16.2m           5.78m              2.8:1

FY 3/2007       14.8m          1.32m               11:1

FY 3/2008        13.7m         0.16m                86: 1

Even PS2 saw its advantage narrow pretty heavily mid-decade...but since Microsoft / Nintendo saw declining hw / sw sales that advantage was re-asserted once the smaller sw markets had to be replaced. Figures above combined production shipments with shipments to retail for PS2, so the figures include about 5m units of PS2 redundancy (not all systems made by April 2006 were shipped to retailers by April 2006) that favors Xbox / GC even more.

The main difference with the Wii generation is that the systems peaked at different times AND have somewhat similar peaks. X360 and PS3 both had 10m peaks for a year - Xbox & GC combined peaked at 11m for three years...while PS2 was still averaging 20m / year. Wii peaked at 26m...but PS3 / X360 weren't near peaking yet. So combined they can substantially beat Wii by a significant margin in their peak phase. But generally speaking, the smaller the peak the quicker the system declines - and both PS3 & X360 will have much smaller peaks than Wii so they should decline faster. My guess is that even as Wii continues to decline, X360 & PS3 combined will return to selling roughly what Wii sells by itself.

                           Wii               X360 PS3       Ratio (HD: Wii)

FY 3/2006                                 3.2m               Infinite

FY 3/2007       5.8m               11.3m             1.9:1

FY 3/2008      18.6m             17.2m             0.9 : 1.0           

FY 3/2009      25.9m             21.3m             0.8 : 1.0

FY 3/2010      20.5m             23.0m             1.1 : 1.0

FY 3/2011E    18.0m             25.0m             1.4 : 1.0

FY 3/2012E    15m                 17m                1.1 : 1.0

FY 3/2013E     11m                12m                1.1 : 1.0

FY 3/2014       7.5m               7.5m                1 : 1

FY 3/2015       4m                   3.8m               0.95:1

FY 3/2016       2m                    1.3m               0.6 : 1

FY 3/2017        0.8m                                        Inf

 

Wii is set for probably six years over 10m, while PS3 will have four years over 10m and X360 will have three years over 10m. That said, Wii had two years over 20m - and X360 / PS3 don't look like they will have any years over 20m - so with quicker declines there should be a gradual reset from 7:5 in the peak HD year (which I believe is this fiscal year) to 1:1 between Wii / HD systems. Just as the PS2 : Xbox GC rate reset very quickly from under 2:1 to well over 2:1                            



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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forest-spirit on 08 August 2010
darthdevidem01 said:
forest-spirit said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Stefan.De.Machtige said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Carl2291 said:
Antabus said:
TheWon said:
 

 So The Wii is controlling this generation as much as the PS2 was.


Ps2 marketshare: 74%

Wii marketshare: 48%

Third party support: Not even close

Can't find any figures on total software sales but I think ps2 dominated the market on that aspect with close to 70% marketshare. Wii has less than 45% share of the software sold this gen.

How is wii controlling as much as the ps2 was?

It's not.

It's also worth noting that the PS2 had more competition... With the Dreamcast, Xbox and Gamecube. Wii only has 360 and PS3 to contend with.

OT:
As I have said before... I wouldn't be surprised to see these following things happen on a regular basis next year -

NA - 360 > Wii > PS3
EMEAA - PS3 > Wii = 360
Japan - PS3 > Wii > 360

I also wouldn't be surprised if we saw a Wii replacement from Nintendo ready for the Holidays 2011. Wii support isn't looking all that great, and they will try to launch Super-Wii with the same kind of support the 3DS seems to be getting.

I totally agree!

But a super-wii won't get the type of support the 3DS is getting.

3rd parties can't just ignore Nintendo another gen. If Nintendo will do a thing like a PS2-like console, they will come. No doubt. 

No because unlike the DS' competitor PSP, the Wii's competitors are actually extremely good at selling software.

With 3DS it was extremely easy for Nintendo to get all 3rd parties on board

With Super Wii it won't be.

Don't know about that. DS was/is a disaster at selling mature games but there are already lots of mature games coming to the 3DS.

It's getting Metal Gear Solid and Resident Evil, and where were those on the DS?

If Wii 2 arrives first (which is very likely), has PS3/360 or better specs (and preferably has some kind of unique feature) I think it's very likely that it's going to get good 3rd party support. Just having better specs will almost guarantee it getting much more multiplat titles than the Wii is getting.

MGS didn't sell "that well" on the PSP either.

And RE wasn't on the PSP much either.

So here your not seeing devs "jumping ship" from PSP.

The DS has pretty much been praised by most devs for its software selling power, the problem is Wii doesn't have this same acclaim from developers, in fact you see many devs blaming it fairly or unfairly. The developers have set up a hardcore base of fans for their "big" franchises on PS360, I don't think they will risk "jumping ship". If Wii2 has specs similar to a PS4 then I'm sure it'll get ports, but otherwise I don't think the situation's gonna change much on the console side.

And now we're seeing Wii weekly sales so close to PS360, another thing the DS never went through in its days against the PSP (apart from the first year when they were neck n neck) nor any former leader in the most recent generations. So with Wii 2 the devs won't even have a complete guarantee of an utter dominance like the Wii has had in its heyday let alone the PS2.

All of that put together tells me the Wii 2 won't get the kind of rapid support 3DS is getting in terms of 3rd parties.

But it's still getting mature games, and it has certainly not been praised as a great seller of mature games. In fact, it only has one million selling mature game.

No one needs to jump ship. It's not "make 360/PS3 or Wii2". Not many 3rd party games are exclusives these days and that will probably continue. If Wii2 has similar, or better, processing power to 360/PS3 it will be much easier to make the games for Wii2 as well than it was with the Wii due to the huge difference in power (and interface) between 360/PS3 and Wii.

Of course, some exclusives would be cool as well. If Nintendo continues to work with 3rd parties that will secure them a couple of exclusives. Being the first 8th gen console will attract some more. The Wii is declining but we are still looking at a 100m console, and if Wii2 has some unique feature (and more powa) I think it will attract 3rd party exclusives.



chichi-101 on 08 August 2010

I love these types of  posts...

 

We had a similar post last year, and I actually have it saved....

When the Wii went on to sell 4million in America in December alone, I wasn't surprised.

I cant believe people are still this bold...

I guess we will see soon enough.

 



Squilliam on 08 August 2010
TheSource said:

Even PS2 saw its advantage narrow pretty heavily mid-decade...but since Microsoft / Nintendo saw declining hw / sw sales that advantage was re-asserted once the smaller sw markets had to be replaced. Figures above combined production shipments with shipments to retail for PS2, so the figures include about 5m units of PS2 redundancy (not all systems made by April 2006 were shipped to retailers by April 2006) that favors Xbox / GC even more.

 

Except theres a significant difference in this case between the Wii / HD consoles and the PS2 / Non PS2 consoles of the previous generation. In the previous generation the PS2 sold significantly more software than either the Xbox or Gamecube. In this generation both the Xbox 360 and PS3 year to date software totals are similar to the Wii's. They are both 51 and 55M respectively against 71M for the Wii. Further to that they both sell their games at a higher average sale price than the Wii with respect to both third party software especially and overall. Since hardware follows software sales, theres no reason to expect the HD console hardware to fall rapidly whilst compelling software is still being made for those consoles.



Tease.

thx1139 on 09 August 2010
Jaos said:

Why does nobody consider a release of a Vitality Sensor game? Just because it wasn't shown at E3 doesn't mean it can't come out short term.

Maybe we do and we dont think a Vitality Sensor game will do anything.  A game that requires a tethered Heart Rate Monitor is a bad idea.



Its libraries that sell systems not a single game.

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Metallicube on 09 August 2010
thx1139 said:
Jaos said:

Why does nobody consider a release of a Vitality Sensor game? Just because it wasn't shown at E3 doesn't mean it can't come out short term.

Maybe we do and we dont think a Vitality Sensor game will do anything.  A game that requires a tethered Heart Rate Monitor is a bad idea.

That's what many people said about Wii Fit..

I think there is a huge potential for a stress relieving game in these hectic times. Wii Relax if done right could sell 20-30 million copies and be the next big thing.



MrT-Tar on 09 August 2010
zgamer5 said:
MrT-Tar said:
zgamer5 said:

i think that nintendo must start doing what everysone is doing, they must start pumping out new ips, i dont want another platformer, i think its time they started producing mature games, while at the same time giving their casual audience, casual games.


Nintendo have made a crap load of new IPs, they are just not that major or good selling (with the exception of Wii..., Nintendogs and Brain Training)


im not talking about ds games. which games are you talking about? i dont consider smg, or sonic and mario at the winter olympics or just at the olympics new ips. i want a new fresh experience as good as the first time i played mario or donkey kong or mario kart. if they get a new fun innovative game and make that franchise as big as mario/zelda/kirby it would help its sales.

Off the top of my head on Wii:

Xenoblade

Disaster:Doc

Maboshi

Captain Rainbow

Art Style

You, me plus the cubes

Wii...

Endless Ocean

Eco Shooter 530

Zangeki no Reinglev

Rock and Roll Climbing

And Kensaku

Bonsai Barber

Lonpos

Line Attack Heroes

Flingsmash

The Last Story

Cosmic Walker (Got a feeling it's been cancelled)

 

This is counting all Wii... series together and counting Excitebots/Truck as part of the Excitebike series.  I'm also not counting Nintendo's current gen new IPs that original started on the DS and then moved to Wii (such as BB Acadamy and Another Code).

You can probably see where I was coming from with my original post, there is a lot of new IPs, they are just not that major.  I can completely understand if one hasn't heard of several of them.

So I can't really understand why people want Nintendo to make more new IPs,  I think Nintendo should make the same number of new IPs but give them more funding and help market them better, so the don't just get left to be not that commercially successful.




Buzzi on 09 August 2010
Metallicube said:
thx1139 said:
Jaos said:

Why does nobody consider a release of a Vitality Sensor game? Just because it wasn't shown at E3 doesn't mean it can't come out short term.

Maybe we do and we dont think a Vitality Sensor game will do anything.  A game that requires a tethered Heart Rate Monitor is a bad idea.

That's what many people said about Wii Fit..

I think there is a huge potential for a stress relieving game in these hectic times. Wii Relax if done right could sell 20-30 million copies and be the next big thing.

It can really do anything, we don't even know what's this Wii Relax: it can be made for the people who bought Wii Fit, as a kind of accessory, or be a completely different thing. What's sure is that it will sell millions, because to play it you require a piece oif hardware, so you can't pirate it, which is the first cause of no selling software. But if it will be a system seller (not as big as Wii Fit, that's pretty sure though) or not will depend on the kind of game.



CURRENTLY PLAYING: Xenoblade (Wii), Super mario 3D land (3DS), Guild Wars (PC)

 

Antabus on 09 August 2010
Metallicube said:

 Acting like Wii is somehow a failure or less of a success because it did not have near PS2's marketshare is just foolish.

I haven't seen anyone call wii a failure. But it is less successfull than ps2, that is a fact. Why? Because Ps2 had much bigger marketshare and it had the support which wii does not have.

IF wii some day will sell more than 140 million units or something like that, you could have one point to call it as big success as ps2 was. But even then, the competition has sold a LOT more than GC/XB.



Chrizum on 09 August 2010
Antabus said:
Metallicube said:

 Acting like Wii is somehow a failure or less of a success because it did not have near PS2's marketshare is just foolish.

I haven't seen anyone call wii a failure. But it is less successfull than ps2, that is a fact. Why? Because Ps2 had much bigger marketshare and it had the support which wii does not have.

IF wii some day will sell more than 140 million units or something like that, you could have one point to call it as big success as ps2 was. But even then, the competition has sold a LOT more than GC/XB.


Marketshare is pretty irrelevant in the end. It's all about profits, and it's obvious that Nintendo has generated more profit with the Wii than Sony with the PS1 and PS2 combined.