Wii will be way down this year. More than -10% I think.

S the X4360 is only 100k less than in the same period last year. That's impressive. And with Kinect and other stuff this Holiday season will be stronger than 2009 for the X360.

But I'm always a lil afraid of adjustments after shipment numbers arrive...

I think they can only do 15M max this year.

Wii could be more than -30% actually.

I hear you, but as the front-runner being down for Nintendo is relative, you know what I mean?

I'm pleasantly surprised at 360 numbers this week...will be interested in seeing the numbers over the next month...see where things start to settle down.

Maybe if they do another price cut or the vitality sensor takes off like you would never imagine, I can imagine kirby epic yarn and donkey kong boostign wii HW in japan especially kirby.

You have got to be joking. Less than half the year is gone, and they have covered half that total... They definitely will move 1.5 - 2.0 million units at the very least in december.

Wii will be up in Japan for all of 2010 - there is just a more steady array of content - Wii Party, Sengoku Basara 3, DQM spinoff, DKC, Kirby, and possibly Last Story / Inazuma Eleven / Vitality Sensor game by the end of 2010 for Japan. The west gets Kirby, Wii Party, NBA Jam, Just Dance 2, Donkey Kong, Golden Eye, Epic Mickey, Pokepark, and probably a handfull of others.  I'd say Wii can drop 15% in the Americas and still end up down 10% overall, as Others will be fairly flat and Japan will be up. My guess is they'll cut price for Wii in Sept/Oct to make the run up to Nov-Dec stronger that last year as well, which will mostly offset the weaker December. November could actually be up though with the right type of content in the west. Still alot in the air.

By the way - if you're up for it, try comparing DS & PSP. They oscilated like crazy.

Interesting.

I would reckon by the end of this year the 360 will be up a decent amount YOY from 2009, the PS3 will be slightly lower, and the Wii will be decently lower too.

I just imagine that move and Kinect will do a massive dent.