What I notice floating around is:
1 - MS is clearly holding back on deciding price and multiple options seem to be getting considered
2 - MS has clearly stated they want to try and keep everything profitable now
3 - MS desperately wants to push their console out into broader demographics and compete with Wii
4 - MS may be sitting on higher than preferred manufacturing costs, with changes already made to reduce Kinect hardware components
5 - MS 360 sales are predictably flattening (5 years old after all) and they want to try and boost interest and are using Kinect linked to the new model (designed to better support Kinect) almost as a re-launch
The only likely scenario I see right now is MS is torn between selling Kinect at a price which may well be at cost or even a loss (because there are plenty of clues the cost of the thing is higher than they'd like to make) to drive the sales and market penetration they want or pricing higher to make it a profitable peripheral but potentially harming market penetration and growth (because there are plenty of clues they want to keep everything profitable around 360 right now).
I think in the end it will come down whether they final push it as more of a platform or a peripheral - my guess is that they might well go with a lower price in the end and eat margin for the sake of marketshare : but reluctantly.
If they do open at a higher price and sales are sluggish I also expect them to quickly decide to sacrifice margin as well.
Sony with Move are probably in a slightly better place regarding cost/price as they seem to be very much positioning the device as a peripheral and its based on well established tech now - on the other hand that strategy normally results in weaker sales and they do seem to be in danger into falling into the 'too many options' trap with the multiple configurations around Move.