The success of Kinect will be entirely dependent upon the quality of software support (stating the obvious here).
Failing that, they could still have a decent level of success simply based upon sheer volume, which will include a lot of bad, quickly developed titles (shovelware) that many will buy anyway because they will provide a decent level of entertainment in party settings.
But hands free controls are not the be all end all of anything. For a lot of genres of games you NEED physical controls. The whole idea that a player can accept pantomiming ANYTHING to make a game work is wishful thinking at best.
The thought of piloting almost anything, be it a plane, helicopter or automobile by playing Video Mime is kind of weak. Maybe novel at first, but realistically, pretty weak if you play for hours.
In the case of Kinect, the use of props is something that needs to be supported, even if it means another wave of cheap plastic pieces made by third party peripheral developers for use with Kinect.
For driving, I would rather have a steering wheel in my hands. Preferably an actual mounted steering wheel controller with gear shifter, clutch, brake pedal and accelerator mounted on a frame with a bucket seat, but that's just not practical, space or cost-wise for anyone who isn't very serious about driving simulators. But rocking my hands like I'm holding an imaginary steering wheel is even worse than holding a Wii Remote sideways (without the donut attachment).
And no air guitars. I would rather use a mini sized fake plastic guitar if I can't use a real guitar in a game.
The thought of using Kinect for any first person shooter games (or any shooters for that matter) is pretty much as it's been said: playing cowboys and indians in the first grade with finger guns. If anyone wants to use Kinect for shooters, at least support the use of prop guns and hopefully Kinect is actually precise enough to detect trigger finger squeezes at all angles or it just won't work at all.
What Kinect is ideal for are dance games (arguably the best demo of the conference) and fitness games, and other games that require accurate tracking of body poses and movement. Theater games, stage acting, and a lot of sports games (ones that won't require running in place) should also work well.
So it's not a total burn, but there are definitely a lot of games that I simply wouldn't want to play without some sort of fine precision control.
And yes, you will look like you're having an epileptic seizure playing a lot of Kinetic games, but who cares; I know a lot of you play in your underwear, away from prying eyes anyway.










